Your Health & Wealth

President Obama and the United States of America

2011-05-02T13:13:00.000-04:00

We live in democratic times; and in a global economy that is interconnected by instant communications and shrinking dimensions of time and space... and with strong values for human rights for all inhabitants of this planet.

Mr. Obama is the right President and Commander-in-Chief for the United States in these times... because, he is intelligent, articulate, educated, has grasp for facts and details, logical thinker, has sharp cognitive shills, diplomatic, assertive, considerate, modest, quick decision maker, and above all a decent human being with compassion and care.

Alexander the Great was one of the greatest warriors of all time... for the barbaric times in our history.

President Johnson, Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. are mostly responsible for the barbaric image of the US around the globe. President Carter may not have caused any barbaric acts during his watch... but manged to portray the US as babbling, bungling over-sized buffoons.

Given the time and opportunity, Obama can change many wrongs within the US shores and enhance our image as a superpower around the globe.

Mr. Obama's handling of Libyan crises [ making NATO spearhead the action] and eliminating Osama Bin-Laden [in collaboration with Pakistan] is proof positive that he has the right foreign policy and is the right President for the US in a fast approaching global democracy that values human rights... and enhance US image as the superpower it is in the hearts and minds of billions on this planet.

God bless President Obama and the United States of America.

Anant Goel

MicroVision: Major Cost Cutting Measures or Death Spiral? Part2

2011-04-07T13:59:00.001-04:00

We have known for some time that major cost cutting measures were underway at MicroVision. And this fact was finally confirmed at the 4^th Qtr earnings conference call held on February 15^th.

Now, it looks like the reality of Picop projector market [and its limitations at this stage] have finally set-in at MicroVision. However, the pace of cost cutting may have picked-up momentum; to a point where “fat cutting” may be “slicing the bone” and cause structural damage to the integrity of the company.

Lately, there has been very little visible activity or news at Microvision. And that makes you wonder: “What's up with no SHOW at the Displayland of laser based Pico Projectors?”

Here's the latest scoop and thinking based on some consumer feedback...

Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, regardless of the brand name or the underlying technology, are a toy as a standalone device... but the market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range.

Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, using panel or DLP/LED technology, use too much battery power and need constant focusing... and they will also have other gating [like size and heat] issues making into the mobile devices. If panel/DLP/LED technology gets past the mobile platform gating issues; at fifteen lumen, they will still be considered a toy... but the market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range... especially when someone else is paying for it.

Fifteen lumen bright Pico projectors, using MEMS/DGL technology, present a more favorable solution to the battery power issues and do not need constant focusing... and they will have far fewer mobile platform gating issues and will easily make their way into the mobile devices. However, at fifteen lumen, such laser based devices will still be considered a toy... but the market is quite receptive to such devices in the $99 to $149 range... especially when someone else is paying for it.

Bottom line is...

“... and more importantly, can Microvision make 15 lumen bright DGL based IPMs [for embedded Pico projectors] in millions; and make them cheap enough to be able to sell them in the $49 to $99 range; and manage to stave-off the financial death spiral by showing some net profit on each sale?”

A few dollars profit on each unit sold could easily translate into millions of dollars in profit when adoption rates accelerate into hundreds of million units in the next 2-3 years.

In my opinion, the answer, with some qualifications, is an astounding yes.

The last hand is in play... and over the next 30 days its the do or die time for Microvision brass.

Anant Goel

Transocean (NYSE: RIG): Expect to See Price Drop Around Earnings Release on February 23, 2011

2011-02-21T17:03:00.005-05:00

Many of you that have traded stock and options on Transocean, since the Gulf of Mexico oil spill/rig blowout disaster, have done well... that is, if you managed to stay on the right side of the trade while the stock almost doubled from a low of $44 in June 2010.

However, with the stock trading at close to $84, the big question is where we go from here. Now that the options play before FEB expiration is over; and billionaire investor Paulson & Company have taken position in the last quarter of 2010, we should get ready to see some reality to set-in the PPS of RIG.

All those factor that could effect the PPS are aligned against Transocean stock...

Lower earnings this quarter compared to the same quarter last year (98 cent expected vs the $2,29).
We are seeing declining revenues and earnings every quarter for the last six quarters since the quarter ending September 2009. Seems like “bloom is off the this rose”.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:RIG&fstype=ii
We are seeing declining day rates with increasing number of rigs going on standby rates after the accident in the Gulf of Mexico... and most recently, the political turmoil in the Middle East.
Recently, the company announced over a billion dollar charge resulting from the impairment of the Standard Jackup fleet.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/03/transocean-idUKN0315165420110203
There is still the specter of criminal and civil liabilities from the GOM accident.
Cost of doing business has increased dramatically for the off-shore drillers.
Legal expenses are escalating after the GOM accident.
Oil at around $85 and staying flat. However, political turmoil in the Middle East may increase the short term price of oil but that does not effect the rig engagement prospects in the short term.
More and more majors are demanding lower day rates in the politically troubled Middle East and some majors are even forcing “ Force Majeure” clause in their contracts.
Increasing number of deep water rigs are being built on spec and coming on-line in search of contracts.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/01/31/deepwater-rig-building-boom-may-leave-casualties.aspx
Dividend payment at Transocean is still in limbo and the decision is currently tied-up in Swedish courts.

Offshore Drilling May Not Be as Strong as Expected... and that includes RIG

Here's a recent Wall Street article on the subject...

http://247wallst.com/2011/02/07/offshore-drilling-may-not-be-as-strong-as-expected-esv-pde-rig-bp-wopey-do-pbr/#ixzz1EbztfhMw

All the above scenarios point to flat to lower PPS for Transocean in the days ahead.

Despite higher oil futures due in part to intensifying protests in the Middle East and a federal judge ordering the Obama Administration to make a decision on five offshore drilling permit requests in the next 30 days, the Offshore Drilling Stocks Index is Flat.

While the Obama Administration has lifted a moratorium on deepwater offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico that was put in place following the April 2010 accident, it has yet to approve permits for new drilling operations. Ensco (ESV) is trying to get five permits, some submitted as far back as April 2010, approved and Judge Martin Feldman on Thursday ordered the Interior Department to approve those applications within 30 days, the Wall Street Journal has reported.

The Obama Administration says there is no specific timeframe mandated by federal law to render decisions on offshore drilling projects, according to the Journal.

Now, let's talk about Paulson & Company taking a stake in Transocean...

Arguably the most successful investor in the world, Paulson & Co. reported its end-of-year holdings to the SEC recently. I'm little surprised at his stake in Transocean during the fourth quarter of 2010. Paulson is a bit late to the party with this new position... because, there were much better opportunities to buy the shares of Transocean in the third quarter without taking appreciably more risk; when the Gulf oil spill was front-page news every day. Indeed, another value investor, Bill Miller, made a very profitable case for Transocean last June... when the stock was still trading in the mid 40's.

The most recent run-up in Transocean PPS to $83.40 can be attributed, in my opinion, to the FEB options expiration and Paulson & Co taking stake in the RIG stock during the fourth quarter of 2010.

With these two events behind us, the reality of Transocean business must play out its due course with flat to lower stock prices in the short term. There are some very profitable options strategies that you can use to take advantage of this flat to somewhat declining stock price in the short term.

Anant Goel

MicroVision: Schedules Conference Call to Discuss 2011 Strategy and Preliminary 2010 Results

2011-02-12T11:28:00.006-05:00

Press Release

Source: MicroVision, Inc.

On Friday February 11, 2011, 8:00 am EST

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today announced it will host a conference call to discuss its 2011 business strategy and preliminary financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2010 on Tuesday, February 15, 2011 at 8:30 a.m. ET / 5:30 a.m. PT.

continues...

*****

Here's the link...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MicroVision-Schedules-bw-2223156935.html?x=0&.v=1

It comes as a surprise that 4^th Qtr earnings conference call is being held on February 15th at 5:30am PST. It is much earlier than the usual first week of March and always after the market close at 4:30pm EST. Some folks would speculate; and take this as a sign of something good... and for a change, they may just be right.

It is quite apparent that the 5:30am PST conference call [at 8:30am EST] is being intentionally organized to conclude before the US markets open at 9:30am EST... while it is still early pm in the Kingdom of Japan; ̶the home of Pioneer Corporation. In my opinion, the decision to hold the CC this early in the morning; is not only to accommodate what Pioneer Corp may have to say... but also to influence the MVIS stock activity in the US financial markets.

Make sure to pull-up your shorts... because there is news on the tab that could impact your financial health in the “short run”.

With the conference call timing issue out of the way, let's now focus on the subject of the CC...

“... to discuss 2011 strategy” as it says in the headline to the Press Release.

I expect most of the CC time being spent here on the subject of 2011 strategy...

I expect Microvision and Pioneer Corp [to be present in some way or form] and lay the foundation for a total makeover and a fresh start for Microvision... with its CEO “in tow” to pitch the financial orgy of last four years as just a bad dream.

In the name of “... 2011 strategy”, I expect to hear about major changes announced [which could be an on-going process] in all business aspects of Microvision... with Pioneer's finger prints, influence, and involvement being quite visible.

Here's business aspects that are expected to be discussed and significantly influenced , hopefully for the better, in my opinion...

* More visibility to Pioneer relationship and agreement

* New organizational structure

* Staffing levels and re-assignments

* Cost cutting [and cost sharing] measures

* Current and new funding source(s) and structure

* Diode Green Laser program and the role of SHG green laser

* Inventory write-downs and losses

* Significant drop in cost of "bill of materials" for SHOWwx line
* Ramp-down SHOWwx production to parallel inventories
* HEMP OEM coming out party

* New products in the pipe line with garbled time-lines as usual

We should see more confidence in CEO Tokman's voice after years of babbling and garbled communications. It takes gumption [and some charisma] to let go the “VP of Sales, Marketing and Business Development”... and still manage to survive as the CEO of the company.

Microvision will survive; and will do just fine under the virtual “halo” of big brother Pioneer Corporation of Japan.

Anant Goel

MicroVision: Major Cost Cutting Measures or Death Spiral?

2011-02-06T12:30:00.002-05:00

We have known for some time that major cost cutting measures were underway at MicroVision.

Now, it looks like the reality of picop projector market [limitations at this stage] has finally set-in at MicroVision... and the pace of cost cutting may have picked-up momentum; to a point where “fat cutting” may be “slicing the bone” and cause structural damage to the integrity of the company.

The most recent [and visible] casualties of this cost cutting measure, assuming that's what they are...

First, Matt Nichols... Director of Communications and former VP of Marketing at MicroVision (November 2010)

Then, Ben Averch... Global Product Manager (January 2011)

Now, Michael Fritts... Vice President, Sales, Marketing and Business Development (February 2011)

There are no public announcements of Mr. Fritts leaving the company. So far, the only way we are able to conclude that he is no longer with the company; is from his profile being taken down from the “Management Team” at the company web site, as well as, his name that no longer appears as part of the management team in the Media Kit.

Here's some links...

http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/team.html

http://mms.businesswire.com/bwapps/mediaserver/ViewMedia?mgid=257174&vid=1

The current management team looks like...

Alexander Tokman: CEO and president

Jeff T. Wilson: CFO

Joe O’Sullivan: Vice president, global operations

Sid Madhavan: Vice president of research and product development

Thomas M. Walker: Vice president general counsel & secretary

No matter how you spin-it, the fact is: it's not an error or an act of omission by any length of imagination that Mr. Fritts' name just got dropped from the “Management Team”. There is no doubt that Mr. Fritts has left the building. However, the big question now is: why there was no formal announcement of his resignation [or termination], and most importantly, why on earth there is no replacement announced by the CEO or BODs at MicroVision?

Regardless of what a company does for business, sooner or later, every single company out there in the real world recognizes the need and value of “Sales, Marketing and Business Development”... and as such, there always is, as a matter of fact, an executive level position for VP Sales, Marketing and Business Development” included in the corporate hierarchy.

This entire episode of missing “VP Sales, Marketing and Business Development” is “bizarre”... to say the least.

What makes MicroVision business model so different that they can get-by without a VP of Sales, Marketing and Business Development?

More importantly, why there is no public announcement of any or all news associated with this bizarre episode of the missing VP of Sales, Marketing and Business Development... not only the missing executive but also the missing position [title] as part of the executive management team?

Here's the question for the CEO and BODs of MicroVision...

“After four years of financial orgy that produced insignificant amount of sales [of anything] but involved dozens of highly paid managers [and support staff] in the PR, IR, Sales, Marketing, Business Development, Administration, Global Product Management, etc... are you now “cutting fat” so deep that it may be “slicing the bone” and cause structural damage to the integrity of the company.”

Investors of MicroVision want to know?

Anant Goel

Internet & Mobile Technology: Spurs Human Rights Movement Around the Globe

2011-01-29T13:56:00.002-05:00

Impact on Human Rights of the People of the World

The world is stepping into unknown territory of instant global communications, global social networking, global commerce, and the rapid spread of unrest from country to country, propelled by the Internet and mobile technology.

Internet and mobile technology will bring about major changes in all aspects of our lives. However, the most significant changes would be the human rights movement around the world where people gather in the Internet and mobile communications forum to finally recognize, organize and demand their basic human rights.

Human rights are "rights and freedoms to which all humans are entitled." Proponents of the concept usually assert that everyone is endowed with certain entitlements merely by reason of being human.

“Egalitarianism, is a trend of thought that favors equality of some sort. Its general premise is that people should be treated as equals on certain dimensions such as religion, politics, economics, social status, and culture. Egalitarian doctrines maintain that all humans are equal in fundamental worth or moral status. It is defined either as a political doctrine that all people should be treated as equals and have the same political, economic, social, and civil rights or as a social philosophy advocating the removal of economic inequalities among people or the decentralization of power.”

Already, there has been civil unrest in countries such as Greece that have been sparked by their recent financial problems.

The lesson from unrest in Egypt, Greece, and regime change in Tunisia are very profound and clear.

“People will no longer accept oppression, particularly when oppression is married with rising food prices, a lack of employment and the destruction of hope for a young generation.”

Incidents of civil unrest that are already breaking out around the world are just a foretaste of what is to come, perhaps even to the United States.

In response to the civil unrest in Egypt, President Obama said in his recent communique to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak...

"I want to be very clear in calling upon the Egyptian authorities to refrain from any violence against peaceful protesters," Obama said.

The U.S. president also said protesters in Egypt have a responsibility to remain peaceful. "Violence and destruction will not lead to the reforms they seek," Obama said.

Obama called on Egypt's government to reverse actions it has taken to "interfere with access to the Internet, to cellphone service and to social networks that do so much to connect people in the 21st century."

The suspension of the Internet is one of Egypt's latest moves in halting online communications amid unrest.

As the Technology blog reported, on Thursday the government blocked Internet data for BlackBerry smart phones and on Tuesday social media websites such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube were unavailable to Egyptians as well. Mobile phone service in Egypt was cut off on Friday too.

The Web, and in particular social media sites, have been an invaluable tool for activists seeking political and social reforms in Egypt, said Charles Hirschkind, an associate professor of anthropology at UC Berkeley.

"The Egyptian government, they're hoping that these communication methods are a lifeline for the protests and activists and they're hoping that cutting off access will help lead to stopping the demonstrations," Hirschkind said. "But it's also apparent from the number of people in the street that people have plenty of ways to communicate outside of the Internet as well.

"The social networks in activist and in protest movements like this are social networks that extend beyond the Internet. The Internet is a tool but not the social network itself."

Last year, there were 60 million mobile phone users in Egypt. In Egypt, there were 17 million Internet users as of December '09... that is 21% of the Egyptian population, according to the ITU.

There were 20 million people in Egypt that live below the poverty level... so I guess, they must be the one's without a mobile phone and are probably the ones demonstrating on the streets. I'm sure those demonstrating come from all walks of life and all socio-economic levels except for the elite.

"What has happened in Tunisia, is happening right now in Egypt, but also riots in Morocco, Algeria and Pakistan, are related not only to high unemployment rates and to income and wealth inequality, but also to this very sharp rise in food and commodity prices."

In Egypt alone, food prices soared 17% -- in part because of the worldwide surge in commodities prices but also because of local supply imbalances.

However, the bigger problem in Egypt, Greece or Tunisia lies not in just prices, but in the fact that when citizens are unhappy, they have little opportunity for political recourse... so they take their frustrations to the street in the form of protests and riots.

"In the U.S. if you're unhappy about who you've elected to the public office, you vote them out in the next election. "But it doesn't work that way in Tunisia or Egypt."

When it comes to the role of Internet and mobile technology, need I say more than what the President of United States has said about the Internet, mobile communications, and social networking as being the basic human rights of people of the world.

Just in case you forgot, Senator Obama raised close to a billion dollars for his Presidential campaign in 2008... and won the Presidential election on the back of Internet, social networking and his Blackberry mobile phone.

Communications has always been an important part of any successful person or business, and ways to communicate have certainly progressed over the past 100 years: from postal mail to e-mail, from telegraph to the telephone, from landlines to mobile smartphones, from written communication on paper to terabytes of data on finger tips, and from fax broadcasts to web-casts.

However, the most significant development has been the emergence of social networking sites, made possible by the Internet and mobile technology, as a forum for people to meet, exchange information, organize, and execute actions instantaneously in a dynamic mode.

We live in some very exciting and dangerous times... where events can gather momentum rapidly, and changes that took decades to emerge; can happen now in days and weeks.

What a difference a few strands of fiber and a prism of light can make to change the destiny of human race in the new millennium.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Equity or Debt Financing to Stay as Going Concern

2010-12-11T00:22:00.005-05:00

During the month of August 2010, Microvision raised $12.5 million dollars from Azimuth Fund in order to prepare the 3rd Qtr 2010 financial on a “going concern basis.

Here's what they said in the 10-Q filing for the 3^rd Qtr earning report...

“In August 2010, we received a report from our independent public accounting firm regarding the consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2009 that includes an explanatory paragraph expressing substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern. Our financial statements have been prepared on a going concern basis.

In August 2010, we entered into a committed equity financing facility under which we may sell up to the lesser of $60.0 million or 17,771,901 shares of our common stock to Azimuth Opportunity, Ltd over a 24-month term. In September 2010, we raised $12.5 million through the sale of approximately 6.3 million shares of our common stock under this facility. As of September 30, 2010 we have the lesser of approximately $47.5 million or 11.4 million shares of common stock remaining available under the facility, though we may not be able to sell shares under the facility in the amounts desired or at all. Based on our current operating plan, we anticipate that we have sufficient cash and cash equivalents to fund our operations through April 2011.”

Now three months later, in November 2010, I would expect Microvision to address the “going concern basis” issue again... because they probably burned another $12 million dollars during the three months from August to November leaving them essentially at the same financial spot they were in August of 2010.

Today is December 12^th and so far we have not heard a thing about any additional funding from Azimuth or any other form of equity or debt financing. We did, however, hear about the Memorandum of Understanding [MOU] with Pioneer Corporation of Japan...

MicroVision and Pioneer to Jointly Commercialize Innovative Laser Display Products

Here's the link to the news...
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20101208005686/en/MicroVision-Pioneer-Jointly-Commercialize-Innovative-Laser-Display

According to the news on MOU with Pioneer...

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature laser display technology, announced today that it has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Pioneer Corporation, one of the top original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of high-performance audio, video and computer equipment for the home, car and business markets, to develop, manufacture and distribute display engines and display engine subsystems for consumer and in-vehicle head-up displays (HUDs) using the MicroVision PicoP^® laser display technology.

“We believe that by combining our respective market and product development capabilities, and leveraging best practices in manufacturing, MicroVision and Pioneer can accelerate introducing next-generation laser display products while reducing the total cost for both companies in getting there.”

Now this is what I'm wondering, just like thousands of other Microvision investors...

This is almost middle of December, and since there is no news of SEC filings on any funding from Azimuth or any other entity; there's the risk of “going concern” statement from the independent accounting firm in the 10-K Annual Report... unless the funding issue has been addressed, in some shape or form, by the MOU and soon to be announced details of some equity stake in Microvision by Pioneer Corporation.

If Pioneer Corporation were to share cost of future development, manufacture and distribution of whatever CE products and modular components they have agreed to; and also take an equity stake in Microvision; that would explain the silence on the funding front.

However, if Pioneer shares the cost of future engagement with Microvision, but does not take an equity position, then there would be some need for additional funding... possibly from the Azimuth Fund facility.

Does that mean Pioneer Corporation is our “knight in shining armor” coming to Microvision rescue?

It surely looks that way from what I hear.

However, even with some equity funding and future cost shared with Pioneer, there is the impact of low MVIS stock price on Azimuth funding to flow. Here’s what the terms of Azimuth funding say in the 8-K filing…

“Threshold Price” is the lowest price at which the Company may sell Shares during the applicable Pricing Period as set forth in a Fixed Request Notice (not taking into account the applicable percentage discount during such Pricing Period determined in accordance with Section 3.2); provided, however, that at no time shall the Threshold Price be lower than $1.25 per share."

Microvision's first draw was allowed to be up to 12.5 million, but the subsequent draws are not. Subsequent draw limits are tied to the price of the stock. Since MVIS is currently in the price group─ $1.75 to $2.00, the maximum fixed amount they can request is $2 million dollars per draw every three weeks.

Two million dollars every four weeks [including 5 days waiting period] is about $6 million a Qtr and that is not so bad when you consider that Microvision is able to share future development cost with Pioneer; and with some equity funding [from Pioneer] they can make the Azimuth funding facility last to the middle of 2011.

That's the good part of the story.

The bad part is...

If the price drops below $1.25, then they can't raise anything, and that's obviously bad.

When you have only $21 million in cash─ as of September 30, 2010, spend $3 to $4 million per month, but you can only raise a maximum of about $2 million per month─ with the stock price in $1.75 to $2.00 range, the math is simple to do. You would run out of cash by middle of 2011… even though there would theoretically still be cash left on the Azimuth funding deal.

Not that I think the BODs would let them get all the way down to zero before adopting creative sources of alternate funding [like Pioneer] or dramatically cutting cost before shutting things down.

I see future cost sharing with Pioneer... with some equity funding as well. What I don't see is any efforts to dramatically cut costs... and that has me wondering why?

At this point, it seems that any dilutive financing is pretty much priced into the stock.

Now consider this...

What would happen if the company issued debt instead?

Or, even better, what if a “white knight” like Pioneer took an equity stake in the company as Walsin Liwa did in 2009.

“Microvision could very well be the phoenix that rises from the ashes once the last remaining negative event [financing] is behind them.”

[… to quote Paul Marganski at http://www.picopros.com/]

Anant Goel

Microvision: White Knight in Shining Armor (part 2)

2010-12-08T12:24:00.004-05:00

Here's the news from this morning...

December 08, 2010

06:00 AM Eastern Time

MicroVision and Pioneer to Jointly Commercialize Innovative Laser Display Products

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature laser display technology, announced today that it has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Pioneer Corporation, one of the top original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of high-performance audio, video and computer equipment for the home, car and business markets, to develop, manufacture and distribute display engines and display engine subsystems for consumer and in-vehicle head-up displays (HUDs) using the MicroVision PicoP^® laser display technology.

“We believe that by combining our respective market and product development capabilities, and leveraging best practices in manufacturing, MicroVision and Pioneer can accelerate introducing next-generation laser display products while reducing the total cost for both companies in getting there.”

Earlier this year, the two companies executed a joint development agreement to develop two critical components of the PicoP display engine: a laser light source module using direct red, blue, and green lasers and a separate display engine subsystem based on MicroVision’s patented PicoP laser scanning technology. Both are key pieces of the next-generation PicoP display engine that will offer OEMs significant commercial advantages in price, size, power, and performance for embedded solutions ranging from cell phones and eyewear, to airplanes and automobiles.

The MOU establishes the framework of a future manufacturing and commercial distribution agreement for PicoP-based display engines to be used in consumer, after-market and embedded automotive products. Pioneer has announced it is targeting commercial introduction of an in-vehicle HUD using PicoP technology into the consumer market in 2012.

“Pioneer has a strong history of bringing cutting edge technologies to mass markets,” stated Alexander Tokman, president and CEO of MicroVision. “We believe that by combining our respective market and product development capabilities, and leveraging best practices in manufacturing, MicroVision and Pioneer can accelerate introducing next-generation laser display products while reducing the total cost for both companies in getting there.”

Both Pioneer and MicroVision were recently recognized as finalists for the CEATEC Innovation Awards for 2010. Pioneer was recognized in the Automotive category for its demonstration of a HUD using laser scanning technology provided by MicroVision, and MicroVision was recognized in the Components category for its SHOWWX^™ laser pico projector, powered by the PicoP display engine.

Continues...

*****

Here's the link...
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20101208005686/en/MicroVision-Pioneer-Jointly-Commercialize-Innovative-Laser-Display

In my last post─ on the subject of “Microvision: White Knight in Shining Armor”─ I wrote…

“Something is cooking at Microvision; and considering the available options at this stage, and knowing how Microvision management operates, it could be the “knight in shining armor” knocking at the door shortly.”

Well, there you have it.

Today's news is about Memorandum of Understanding; which in my opinion is the precursor to Pioneer Corporation coming on-board as the joint venture strategic partner... in other words, our “knight in shining armor”.

The reason I say Pioneer is coming on-board as the joint venture partner; is very obvious from the wording of the press release...

“We believe that by combining our respective market and product development capabilities, and leveraging best practices in manufacturing, MicroVision and Pioneer can accelerate introducing next-generation laser display products while reducing the total cost for both companies in getting there.”

And then consider this...

“Earlier this year, the two companies executed a joint development agreement to develop two critical components of the PicoP display engine: a laser light source module using direct red, blue, and green lasers and a separate display engine subsystem based on MicroVision’s patented PicoP laser scanning technology. Both are key pieces of the next-generation PicoP display engine that will offer OEMs significant commercial advantages in price, size, power, and performance for embedded solutions ranging from cell phones and eyewear, to airplanes and automobiles.”

We're all too familiar with the Azimuth funding situation, so I believe at this point the management had to be looking at some serious alternatives. Here's some quotes from the 3^rd Qtr earnings conference call...

"...As a result of these events, most recent events, we have immediately accelerated our internal efforts to develop and commercialize the best performance, tiniest, low-cost engine for the high-volume consumer applications based on direct green lasers. We're in the process currently of selecting strong partners, who will help us to accelerate this effort, such that, our time-lines match the commercialization of the direct green laser time-lines."

This is what Alex Tokman, Microvision CEO said, when answering a question about cost containment...

"...We're gonna rely for, uh, for this second-generation engine, we're gonna very closely ally ourselves with, uh, one or two strategic partners, who will take on a lot more of a development and manufacturing than what we've done in the past."

I don't know what this means to you?

But to me, it means strategic partnership with sharing of joint venture costs and surely there's a possibility of equity funding from a strategic partner.

Once the market realizes the full impact of this strategic partnership with Pioneer Corporation, the MVIS stock price may start on the path to recovery, which in turn should allow Microvision to tap into the remaining money under the Azimuth facility starting now and more at a later date.

For a company like Microvision, with huge future potential but running out of cash while waiting for cheap diode lasers, Pioneer is the “knight in shining armor” and is the friendly enterprise that comes-on-board upon invitation of the management… and possibly offers cash, but surely shares development costs, for the next crucial 36 months, in exchange for an opportunity to joint venture in mega billion dollar market potential.

The good thing in this relationship is that; there are no stock dilutions from progressively increasing number of shares and warrants.

Having said that…

Microvision’s current financial situation leaves them vulnerable to possible “hostile takeover” and the corporate management may be exploring every possible cost saving and additional funding strategy for the company in an effort to continue as an independent enterprise.

The only problem is; it may be too late to conserve available capital, including additional funds raised thru Azimuth─ if any, and make it last another 36 months as an independent “going concern”.

This joint venture strategic partnership, or whatever else you may call it, is the best of all possible avenues to financial survival and future growth without giving away the keys to the store.

I’m sure the recent purchase of a patent portfolio from Motorola was at the heart of this deal with Pioneer... because, it not only strengthens Microvision’s patent portfolio but also makes their [Microvision] laser based pico projection technology IP portfolio so much more broader that companies like Pioneer may find it cheaper to “join them” rather than “fight them”.

That is all good.

However, it’s not more patents and diversity of products that Microvision needs at this stage. What they need is fiscal responsibility to conserve capital for the next 24 to 36 months while they patiently wait for cheap diode/SHG green lasers… because without cheap green lasers, Microvision will not survive as a financially viable independent entity, with or without Pioneer.

You are right, this joint venture with Pioneer [ whether you see it for what it is or not] is the most significant and positive news for Microvision employees and its investors.

It may not be obvious to the naked eye...

Pioneer is the "knight in shining armor" and they don't even know it. Equity funding from Pioneer is always possible... but it is not necessary while Azimuth funding is still in place.
This “knight in shining armor” comes with NO stock dilution to the existing stockholders... and that's a very good thing under the circumstances.
Microvision just transferred [some] of their SG&A and R&D cost to the joint venture with Pioneer... without laying-off any key personnel.
Microvision just about [indirectly] solved its funding issue... because, sooner or later the market would recognize the financial significance of this joint venture and with PPS increasing gradually, the funding from Azimuth would keep flowing.
Microvision just expanded their product offering to include Integrated RGB Laser Light Modules, Integrated Photonic Modules, and PicoP Display Engines.

The biggest news is...

This joint venture would now allow Microvision to introduce [spec] consumer products in partnership with Pioneer as a strategically aligned OEM with deep pockets... rather than waiting for OEM customers to come to the table with firm commitment to dollars, time-lines and product configurations.

Anant Goel

Microvision: What’s New in Laser Land?

2010-12-06T05:24:00.000-05:00

The Red-Green-Blue (RGB) laser light sourcing has, for a long time, been one of the blocking factors for MEMS-based pico-projector development.

Technical challenges have been overcome by some laser manufacturers [like Osram for one example] that are now providing the three basic colors. It is expected that these lasers will be mass-produced in a single bar─ that is a platform integrating the three laser sources in one instead of three individual lasers, by early 2011.

Single bar RGB laser light source for MEMS pico projectors is expected to be much more cost effective and scalable to mass production. Not only that, there are other benefits of reduced physical size, lower energy consumption and faster modulation rates.

Laser pico projector pricing is then strongly related not only to the cost of RGB laser light source and production volumes but also to initial technology choices, the business model and product strategy.

Anant Goel

Microvision: What Does 15 Lumens Mean to SHOWwx+ Projected Image Brightness?

2010-11-23T17:44:00.003-05:00

Here's the news...

MicroVision Unveils Second-Generation Laser Pico Projector, SHOWWX+

Press Release
Source: MicroVision, Inc.
Monday November 22, 2010, 1:00 pm EST

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), the leader in innovative ultra-miniature laser display technology, today unveiled SHOWWX+®, the second-generation of its award-winning laser pico projector. With a 50 percent brighter display within the same slim size, SHOWWX+ enables mobile device users to break free from the small screen and project large, clear 16:9 widescreen content wherever they are, on any surface.

“We’re on a mission to eliminate the squinting and huddling that occurs when mobile device users share content,” said Alexander Tokman, president and CEO of MicroVision. “SHOWWX+ is designed to simply and quickly connect to today’s hottest new portable devices so users can display and share large vibrant images and video with ease.”

Taking the Mobile Experience Beyond the Small Screen
SHOWWX+ is the first laser pico projector to offer a big-screen, movie-length experience that easily slips into a shirt pocket. Boasting two hours of battery life, 15 laser lumens, a contrast ratio up to five times higher than competing products, and the shortest throw ratio of any pico projector on the market, the SHOWWX+ is the perfect accessory for expanding viewing experiences beyond a palm or pad-sized screen. Its category-leading 5,000:1 native contrast ratio ensures the SHOWWX+ produces the deepest blacks and most brilliant whites.

Continues…

*****

Here’s the link to the news…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MicroVision-Unveils-bw-4077703968.html?x=0&.v=2

In all fairness, this is excellent news as it shows progress in the right direction to achieving a brighter and improved quality image from the tiny laser based PicoP Display Engine at the core of MicroVision’s second generation product SHOWwx+.

We have seen the first generation pico projector SHOWwx… and are really impressed by the 10-lumen brightness and the quality of projected image.

However, with the second generation SHOWwx+ there are lots of speculations and misinformation about what does it really mean to have 15-lumen brightness from the new PDEs?

Consider this in its utmost simplicity…

Lumen:
A lamp [LED or a laser diode] produces a certain amount of light that is measured in lumens. The lumen is the globally standardized SI unit of "luminous flux"--meaning that it measures just how much visible light is produced by an object such as, for example, a light bulb.

Typical indoor lamps have light outputs ranging from 50 to 10,000 lumens. You use lumens to order most types of lamps, to compare lamp outputs, and to calculate lamp energy efficiencies.

The luminous flux is a weighted sum of the power at all wavelengths in the visible band. Light outside the visible band does not contribute. Luminous flux is the total perceived power emitted in all directions. However, luminous intensity is the perceived power per unit solid angle… like as directed and projected on a screen and seen by the eye.

[Note that lumen output is not related to the light distribution pattern of the lamp. A large fraction of a lamp’s lumen output may be useless if it goes in the wrong directions… like as in diffused light from a lamp or LED source]

Luminous intensity:
It is a measure of the wavelength-weighted power emitted by a light source in a particular direction per unit solid angle, based on the luminosity function, a standardized model of the sensitivity of the human eye. The SI unit of luminous intensity is the candela (cd).

We are interested in the measurement of visible light as perceived by human eye; the human eye can only see light in the visible spectrum and has different sensitivities to light of different wavelengths within the spectrum. When adapted for bright conditions (photopic vision), the eye is most sensitive to greenish-yellow light at 555 nm. Light with the same radiant intensity at other wavelengths has a lower luminous intensity. For instance, the measured responses of the eye to violet light varied by a factor of ten.

Luminous intensity should not be confused with another photometric unit, luminous flux, which is the total perceived power emitted in all directions. Luminous intensity is the perceived power per unit solid angle.

Lux:
Lux is the unit that indicates the density of light that falls on a surface. This is what light meters measure. For example, average indoor lighting ranges from 100 to 1,000 lux, and average outdoor sunlight is about 50,000 lux.

One Lux, for example, is measured as one lumen per square meter. The general term for lux is “luminance”.

Lux versus lumen:
The difference between the lux and the lumen is that the lux takes into account the area over which the luminous flux is spread. A flux of 100 lumens, concentrated into an area of one square meter, lights up that square meter with a luminance of 100 lux. However, the same 100 lumens, spread out over ten square meters, produce a dimmer luminance of only 1 lux.

Now consider this…
A person looking at the screen sees different areas of his visual field in terms of levels of brightness, or luminance, measured in candelas [the measure of luminous intensity] per square meter.

With that clarity on the difference between lumen and lux; conversion between the two is simple.

Lux is a measure of how many lumens are present in a given area. It's essentially a measure of "photon density" or "light concentration." A "denser" cloud of photons [like a 10 lumen laser light pixel] means there are more lumens present in a pixel space… producing more brightness and higher lux as perceived by the eye.

A "lighter" cloud of photons [like a 10 lumen LED lighting the one square meter of the screen] means fewer lumens are present in a pixel space… leading to dimmer conditions and lower lux as perceived by the eye.

To achieve a desired lux level in a given space it may be necessary to use brighter bulbs with higher lumen rating or use many light bulbs, each producing a given number of lumens.

Do the Conversion…
Measure the dimensions of the space that you wish to illuminate, and write down how many square meters of surface area it has. In case of SHOWwx with 10 lumens, it is 10 lumens over the size of a pixel. In case of 10 lumen LED based pico projectors, it is 10 lumens over the one square meter of the screen.

The fundamental ratio of conversion from desired lux level to required lumens is:

1 lux = 1 lumen per square meter.

Since perceived brightness corresponds to a logarithmic function, depending on the shape of the function's graph, close to the x axis (where pico projector brightness is now), you would tend to see more difference from smaller amounts of change. That's because close to the axis, the curve is relatively steep. The technical projector literature, the ANSI definitions and viewers personal experience says…

“… In case of pico projectors, as you double the ANSI lumens you double the brightness."

However, as the lumen numbers get bigger─ like 2,000 to 4,000 lumens for lamp based projectors, the curve flattens out, so you need relatively more change in lumens to get the same perceived change in brightness.

"For pico projectors, depending on where you are on that curve, it might even be possible to get a “more” than double brightness increase from a smaller than double lumen increase."

In summary…
Lumen for lumen, the laser pico projectors have higher perceived brightness as compared to those using other light sources… and as you increase the ANSI lumens by 50% [going from 10 lumens to 15 lumens] you more or less increase the brightness by 50%.

Anant Goel

Microvision: White Knight in Shining Armor

2010-11-14T12:21:00.001-05:00

In my last post─ on the subject of “Microvision: $48 million in Additional Funding”─ I wrote…

“The terms of Azimuth funding are quite complicated to say the least. However, one thing seems clear that with MVIS stock trading at $1.25 or lower, there may not be any funding available from Azimuth?

Does that mean some other “knight in shining armor” coming to Microvision rescue?

It surely looks that way from what I hear.”

First, here’s what the terms of Azimuth funding say in the 8-K filing…

"“Threshold Price” is the lowest price at which the Company may sell Shares during the applicable Pricing Period as set forth in a Fixed Request Notice (not taking into account the applicable percentage discount during such Pricing Period determined in accordance with Section 3.2); provided, however, that at no time shall the Threshold Price be lower than $1.25 per share."

Yeah, that seems like it could be a problem…

Microvision's first draw was allowed to be up to 12.5 million, but the subsequent draws are not. Subsequent draw limits are tied to the price of the stock. Since MVIS is currently in the last price group─ $1.25 to $1.50, the maximum fixed amount they can request is $1 million dollars per draw every three weeks.

That's a problem, because they can only do one request every three weeks, and making them that often (followed by the short selling Azimuth would be doing) risks dropping the MVIS price below $1.25.

If the price drops below $1.25, then they can't raise anything, and that's obviously bad.

But even if the price stabilizes, they'll still likely run out of money and be out of business by fall of 2011.

When you have only $21 million in cash─ as of September 30, 2010, spend $3 to $4 million per month, but you can only raise a maximum of about $1 million per month─ with the stock price in $1.25 to $1.50 range, the math is simple to do. You would run out of cash by fall of 2011… even though there would theoretically still be cash left on the Azimuth funding deal.

Not that I think the BODs would let them get all the way down to zero before shutting things down.

I know that is disheartening and financially devastating to lots of us. But unless BODs can find a buyer for the company, or get a source of funding other than Azimuth, or get a $1+ run in the stock price over the next 30-60 days, there is not much hope for changing the course of events that usually follow when a company runs out of cash.

For a company like Microvision, with huge future potential but running out of cash while waiting for cheap diode lasers, the “knight in shining armor” could be the friendly enterprise that comes-on-board upon invitation of the management… and offers cash for the next 36 months in exchange for progressively increasing number of shares and warrants─ as the PPS would in all probability be flat or drop every Qtr on news of more and more dilution of unknown proportions.

If you were to assume that cheap diode lasers would be available in the next 24 months and then it takes another 12 months to generate enough profits to self- sustain as a going concern… there is ample time of 36 months for our “knight in shining armor” to accumulate enough shares and warrants to not only cause massive dilution but also become the majority owner.

Having said that…

Microvision’s current financial situation leaves them vulnerable to possible “hostile takeover” and the corporate management may be exploring every possible cost saving and additional funding strategy for the company in an effort to continue as an independent enterprise.

The only problem is; it may be too late to conserve available capital, including additional funds raised thru Azimuth─ if any, and make it last another 36 months as an independent “going concern”.

I’m sure the recent purchase of a patent portfolio from Motorola is a good deal; as it further strengthens Microvision’s patent portfolio. However, it’s not more patents and diversity of products that Microvision needs at this stage. What they need is fiscal responsibility to conserve capital for the next 24 to 36 months while they patiently wait for cheap diode green lasers… because without cheap diode green lasers, Microvision will not survive as a financially viable independent entity.

I’m sure Microvision’s technology and IP portfolio would be of interest to some seasoned business entity with few hundred million dollars to burn.

The only other source of funding, other than a secondary IPO offered thru major investment banks, would be the “rights offering”…

“Cash-strapped companies can turn to rights issue to raise money when they really need it. In these rights offerings, companies grant shareholders a chance to buy new shares at a discount to the current trading price.

Let's look at how rights issue work, and what they mean for all shareholders.

Defining a Rights Issue and Why It's Used
A rights issue is an invitation to existing shareholders to purchase additional new shares in the company. More specifically, this type of issue gives existing shareholders securities called "rights", which, well, give the shareholders the right to purchase new shares at a discount to the market price on a stated future date. The company is giving shareholders a chance to increase their exposure to the stock at a discount price.

But until the date at which the new shares can be purchased, shareholders may trade the rights on the market the same way they would trade ordinary shares. The rights issued to a shareholder have a value, thus compensating current shareholders for the future dilution of their existing shares' value.

Troubled companies typically use rights issues to pay down debt, especially when they are unable to borrow more money. But not all companies that pursue rights offerings are shaky. Some with clean balance sheets use them to fund acquisitions and growth strategies. For reassurance that it will raise the finances, a company will usually, but not always, have its rights issue underwritten by an investment bank.

Be Warned
It is awfully easy for investors to get tempted by the prospect of buying discounted shares with a rights issue. But it is not always a certainty that you are getting a bargain. But besides knowing the ex-rights share price, you need to know the purpose of the additional funding before accepting or rejecting a rights issue. Be sure to look for a compelling explanation of why the rights issue and share dilution are needed as part of the recovery plan. Sure, a rights issue can offer a quick fix for a troubled balance sheet, but that doesn't necessarily mean management will address the underlying problems that weakened the balance sheet in the first place. Shareholders should be cautious.”

[Excerpt from… http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/05/062905.asp?partner=answers]

Something is cooking at Microvision; and considering the available options at this stage, and knowing how Microvision management operates, it could be the “knight in shining armor” knocking at the door shortly.

Anant Goel

[I must attribute part credit for this post to Paul Anderson from the Yahoo Message Board]

Microvision: $48 Million in Additional Funding

2010-11-14T03:15:00.002-05:00

At the most recent 3rd Qtr earnings conference call, Mr. Jeff Wilson, Microvision CFO addressed the $48 million funding that is still available from Azimuth… but left some of us wondering how that may play-out in view of MVIS stock price that dropped sharply after the CC.

I know a few VCs and hedge fund managers who have participated in secondary financings… the kind Microvision has engaged most recently with Azimuth.

Let me explain, using a hypothetical example, how this additional $48 million funding may be in play already and running its course…

• Microvision wants to raise $48 million and the stock was trading at $2.00 on November 1, 2010.

• If the deal was done, without the average price over 20 day period, there would be 26.7 million shares offered at $1.80 [$2.00 at 10% discount]. However, that is not the case… the investor [fund] is going with the average over 20 days clause… for a reason of course.

• After the agreement, the hedge fund would short sell the stock starting at $2.00 and go as far down as the most recent support level at $1.45… to raise $20 million and be 10 million shares [more or less] short… thereby limiting the net invested capital outlay to only $28 million. The $28 million net being the comfortable level of investment the hedge fund may want to make in the current financial market.

• Let’s assume the average price over a 20 day period, as a direct result of this short selling, is now $1.50. However, the conversion price will be $1.35 considering the 10% discount. That gives the hedge fund 35.6 million shares in exchange for $28 million net invested [$48 million - $20 million] vs. the 26.7 million shares they would have gotten for $48 million invested without the manipulation.

• In time, the hedge fund would cover the 10 million short shares from the 35.6 million shares received from Microvision treasury.

• The net result, the hedge fund got 25.6 million shares [35.6 million – 10 million] for a net investment of only $28 million [$48 million – $20 million].

So, the hedge fund just improved their average cost to $1.10 per share… and invested a total of only $28 million in these cash constrained financial environment.

Is it illegal? No.

Is it immoral? No.

Is it the American way? Oh YES.

On a more important note; the dilution from raising the additional $48 million to stay as a going concern─ while Microvision waits for cheap diode green lasers─ is only about 35.6 million additional shares… possibly increasing the total to 130.6 million shares from the current 95 million before this funding.

That’s not all that bad considering the dilution is only about 37% from $2.05 trading range... and seems to be already baked-in the $1.45 price as of this day.

Unfortunately, life is not that simple. The terms of Azimuth funding are lot more complicated than that and there are limits to the progressively lower amounts that can be funded as the stock price goes down.

The terms of Azimuth funding are quite complicated to say the least. However, one thing seems clear that with MVIS stock trading at $1.25 or lower, there may not be any funding available from Azimuth?

Does that mean some other “knight in shining armor” coming to Microvision rescue?

It surely looks that way from what I hear.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Take Over Candidate

2010-11-09T12:18:00.002-05:00

Microvision will do fine in the year 2012/2013… but it may not be with its current management still in place or with AT as the CEO of the company. In all probability, Microvision will be taken over in the next 12 to 15 months… to put an end of this sad story in the hands of an ineffective management team.

If the BODs continue with the same old... same old for another 6 to 9 months, the game is over for Microvision as an independent entity. Fortunately, the current PIPE funding thru Azimuth may provide enough money to last another 6 to 9 months as a going concern… without having to worry about breaching the “loan or equity covenants” with their spend thrift lavish operating life style at Microvision.

You may not like what I say, but the current management has no vision, gumption, business strategy or ability to execute at Microvision. Microvision CEO looks like fish out of water and he operates the company like a rough riding cowboy shooting from the hip pocket. Under his leadership over the last four years, everything that’s done at Microvision seems like “reactive” and not something that was part of the plan or “pro-active”. Over the last sixteen quarterly earnings CC, this management team has exposed themselves to their short comings in managing most all aspects of financial and business affairs of the company.

It is quite visible now, after four long years, that the current management lacks business growth strategy; lacks vision; lacks gumption; lacks risk management savvy; lacks contingency planning; lacks fiscal responsibility; and certainly lacks ability to execute as a business-for-profit company.

I will back-up every statement that I make here in more detail in later posts on the blog… but for now, mark my words that the current management of Microvision, contrary to what I may have said before, is the worst ensemble of novices under the “learn as you go” directionless leadership of AT.

At the risk of repeating myself, mark my words…

The current PIPE funding thru Azimuth may provide enough money to last another 6 to 9 months as a going concern… without having to worry about breaching the ‘loan or equity covenants’ with their spend thrift lavish operating life style at Microvision. However, the last stop funding is in motion... after that; game is over for Microvision as an independent company.

This PIPE funding costs Azimuth not a cent... because; it is nothing more than a conduit for MVIS shares from the treasury to be sold to investors-at-large─ with Azimuth acting as the facilitator.

However, once this money is flushed down at an elevated rate approaching $12 million per Qtr… what’s next?

I’m sure the recent purchase of a patent portfolio from Motorola is a good deal; as it further strengthens Microvision’s patent portfolio. However, it’s not more patents and diversity of products that Microvision needs at this stage. What they need is fiscal responsibility to conserve capital for the next 12 to 18 months while they patiently wait for cheap diode green lasers… because without cheap diode green lasers, Microvision will not survive as a financially viable independent entity.

I’m sure Microvision’s technology and IP portfolio would be of interest to some seasoned business entity with few hundred million dollars to burn.

Today’s stock price at $1.53, after having traded at $5.57 last year─ right after SHOWwx product launch, does not speak much for the current management of Microvision.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Hyper Growth in 2011

2010-11-01T12:44:00.004-04:00

Rapid Development in Native [Diode] Green Laser Technology Sets PicoP™ Projector into Hyper Growth for Year 2011

In the emerging market for pico-projectors, as well as, other display techniques such as head-mounted display (HMD) or head-up display (HUD), the ideal light source would be a laser due to its capability to deliver highly saturated colors in the widest possible gamut.

Additional desirable features include focus-free operation, improvement in wall-plug efficiency─ reducing power consumption for battery operation, lower cost and high production scalability. The great advantage of laser projectors is a consistently sharp, always-in-focus, true-color, high-contrast image irrespective of the projection distance and projection surface

As we all know too well, the availability and cost of green lasers, both diode and SHG, has held back the progress in ramping-up production of laser based PicoP projectors.

However, there are three pieces of news, two from this morning and one from a year ago, that put the commercialization of laser based PicoP projectors from Microvision on steroids… for hyper growth in the year 2011.

First the old news from August 2009…

“Success in the laboratory: direct emitting green InGaN laser with 50 mW

OSRAM has set a new milestone for mobile laser projection

OSRAM Opto Semiconductors has achieved a major breakthrough in the laboratory with its direct emitting green indium-gallium-nitride laser. It already achieves an optical output of 50 mW and emits light in true green with a wavelength of 515 nm. Compared with semiconductor lasers based on current technology that operate with frequency doubling, direct emitting green lasers are more compact, offer greater temperature stability, are easier to control and have higher modulation capability.”

*****

Here’s the link to the Osram web site…

http://www.osram.com/osram_com/News/Trade_Press/LED_OptoSemiconductor/2009/090813_PM_R%26D_gruenerLaser_en.html

Over the last one year there have been several articles and white papers published indicating rapid improvement in the development of diode green lasers getting out of the lab approaching commercialization.

Today’s news from Corning confirms that…

Press Release
Source: Corning Incorporated
Monday November 1, 2010, 7:00 am EDT

CORNING, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW - News) today announced its results for the third quarter of 2010.

In the press release Corning stated…

“In other matters, Corning has decided to discontinue its development and commercialization of synthetic green lasers. Given the rapid development of native green technology, the company concluded that the market for synthetic green lasers is limited.”

*****

Here’s the link to the press release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Corning-Announced-bw-2268286162.html?x=0&.v=1

This piece of news further confirms that rapid progress has been made with diode green lasers. And Osram, for example, has overcome the previous limits of the InGaN material system. At the pre-development stage─ in August 2009, the company succeeded in manufacturing the first direct emitting green laser diode from the InGaN (indium-gallium-nitride) material system with a high optical output. The diode emits a “true green”, which is defined by the spectral range of 515 to 535 nm. In this range, efficient high-quality semiconductor lasers have been commercially available only as frequency-doubled versions. In the medium term, however, direct emitting green lasers could replace frequency-doubled lasers for numerous applications. They are easier to control, and also offer greater temperature stability, a smaller form factor and higher modulation capability at several 100 MHz.

Now we come to the last piece of the news that confirms the rapid development of diode green lasers… and that puts the commercialization of laser based PicoP projectors from Microvision on steroids for hyper growth in the year 2011.

Here we go…

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
Monday November 1, 2010, 7:00 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today announced it has successfully integrated the first “direct green” laser samples from two leading manufacturers into pico projector benchtop prototypes. This achievement represents an important first step toward the commercialization of PicoP® display engines using direct green lasers. The PicoP display engine utilizing a direct green laser is expected to offer significant commercial advantages in price, size, power, and performance.

“We are very pleased with the performance of these early direct green laser prototypes,” commented Sid Madhavan, Microvision vice president, R&D and Applications. “These encouraging results give us confidence that direct green laser diodes will be capable of meeting the performance requirements for integration into our PicoP display platform.”

Simplicity leads to lower costs
Microvision’s current pico projection engine uses red and blue laser diodes and a frequency-doubled “synthetic” green laser to create a full color image. Synthetic green lasers are infrared lasers that are manipulated to reduce their wavelength to produce a green light. This conversion process creates a complex system of multiple components held to tight tolerances making manufacturing more challenging.

Direct green lasers are capable of producing green light natively, greatly simplifying laser design and manufacturing processes. Direct green lasers are expected to be manufactured in a manner similar to red and blue lasers available today, facilitating lower cost and rapid scalability to commercial quantities. The combination of smaller size, lower power, and lower cost make direct green lasers an attractive alternative to synthetic green lasers for Microvision’s mobile display solutions.

Historically, availability of synthetic green lasers has been constrained due to their complexity and the existence of only two manufacturers. Today, there are at least five companies worldwide that have announced they are developing direct green lasers for late 2011 to mid 2012 commercial introduction. Industry researcher Yole Development forecasts that the direct green laser market size will reach about $500 million by 2016 and should represent more than 45 million devices.

*****

Here’s the link to the press release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Integrates-First-bw-2659567055.html?x=0&.v=1

Some would say that this press release from Microvision is damage control in view of Corning’s decision to discontinue its development and commercialization of synthetic green lasers.

But, I disagree… because of two simple reasons:

First: Corning has decided to discontinue development and commercialization of synthetic green lasers… but that doesn’t mean they will stop production of what’s on order and contracted with Microvision.

Second: Currently, SHG green laser diodes are available on the market from Corning, Osram and QD Laser… and each have their own proprietary solutions. Now if you take Corning out of the equation… you still have two other suppliers of SHG green lasers in the interim period from now to mid 2011.

The bottom line is…

“Next year, the commercialization of laser based PicoP projectors from Microvision gets into fast lane for hyper growth in the year 2011.”

We just have to wait and see how things unfold from here?

Anant Goel

Microvision: Announcement of OEM for High End Media Player with Embedded PicoP™ Projector

2010-10-31T16:29:00.001-04:00

The question of an announcement, by Microvision, of the OEM for the HEMP is on everyone’s mind. Some of us feel this announcement is imminent; while others feel it could be delayed for CES 2011 in January.

Either way, it is important to understand the various generations of Microvision PicoP Display Engines that we have [or will have] floating around very shortly… and based on which one the OEM decides to embed in the HEMP could very well dictate the announcement date.

Here we go…

1st Generation PDEs: This is one that went inside the SHOWwx [Standard and the Limited Edition] units shipped in March 2010. Features include a native resolution of WVGA (848 X 480), ultra-simple plug-and-play use, fiddle-free infinite focus, very high-contrast ratio, and bright vivid colors generated from ultra-miniature laser light sources. Users simply connect the SHOWWX to any mobile device with TV or VGA out (iPod, laptop, etc.) and project DVD-quality images from a mobile device, up to 200" across, depending on the ambient light.

Here’s the link to the press release…
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1399816&highlight=

2nd Generation PDEs: Interestingly, on March 29th; Microvision announced the completion and shipment of initial samples of its new display engine that incorporates a proprietary ASIC chipset half the original size and weight and that consumes one third less power than its predecessor while delivering uniformly bright, vivid color WVGA (848 X 480) images up to 200 inches. It also provides a 5000:1 contrast ratio – 5 times greater than other pico projector engines in the market today and is always in focus without the need for focusing dials or optics – an especially desirable benefit for mobile consumers.

On April 5th; Microvision announced that it had received an $8.5 million purchase order for its new ultra-miniature PicoP laser projection display engine from a consumer electronics customer. The OEM plans to [in my opinion] embed this 2nd generation PicoP Display Engine inside the high-end mobile media player for release in late 2010 and plans to announce its launch at that time.

Here’s the link to the press release…

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1407100&highlight=

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1409371&highlight=

3rd Generation PDEs: On May 24th; Microvision unveiled the increased brightness 15-lumen 720p HD-ready laser pico projector demonstrator at The Society for Information Display Conference.

According to Microvision press release, the 720p HD-ready prototype pico projector outputs 15 lumens of brightness while still maintaining its compact, low profile form factor, very similar to Microvision's current WVGA product. The company plans a commercial product version of a 720p HD PicoP display engine in the second half of 2011. The new 720p, higher brightness prototype highlights the capability of PicoP technology to support new performance levels while still maintaining the compelling attributes of the existing PicoP platform, including:

• Infinite focus;
• Wide throw angle that offers an immersive visual experience;
• Superior brightness uniformity;
• High optical efficiency resulting in low power requirements;
• 5000:1 contrast ratio; and
• Vivid colors of up to 200% greater than standard broadcast television.

Here’s the link to the press release…
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1430235&highlight=

4th Generation PDEs: These 4th generation PDEs will have to wait till first generation diode green lasers become available in 2012. Initially, the first generation diode green lasers are expected to be expensive compared to possibly the 3rd generation SHG green lasers that may be around… but still may find their way into the 4th generation PDEs as premium modules with higher brightness and resolution with lower power needs.

5th Generation PDEs: These 5th generation PDEs are expected to find their way into millions of PicoP projector in 2013; when 2nd generation diode green lasers would have dropped dramatically in price and reached optimum performance and efficiency levels.

All that is great news but for now let’s get back to the question of the OEM for the HEMP?

In my opinion, there is always the possibility that the OEM may go with the 2nd generation PDEs, as originally announced, and launch the product tomorrow on November 1, 2010.

However, if the 3rd generation PDEs are available now, or will be available shortly, I would change my bet and go with the CES 2011 in January as the possible announcement date.

If we were to pay attention to Microvision press release of April 5th; we may have the surprise announcement at the 3rd Qtr earnings conference call at 4:30pm on November 1, 2010…

“The unidentified customer plans to embed the PicoP engine inside a high-end mobile media player for release in late 2010 and plans to announce its launch at that time."

We just have to wait and see!

Anant Goel

Microvision: What Business Growth Strategy?

2010-10-28T11:44:00.008-04:00

Every business has to plan for growth and executives should make sure their growth plans are consistent with their dynamic business plan. A dynamic business plan is an updated version that is kept current to reflect the ever-changing business-operating environment. Especially in the technology and DOT.com businesses, where the product cycles are so short and consumer preferences are mostly dependent on the next hot product or service.

When it comes to growth plans, the two ends of the spectrum are, for example, should a company grow quickly and unprofitably, like Amazon and Hotmail─ before it got acquired by Microsoft for $480 million, or slowly with a careful eye on the bottom line, like Ben & Jerry's ice cream parlors? It all depends on how much venture capital you have access to and what the competition is doing!

The worst thing you can do is fail to decide whether you're going to be a Ben & Jerry's company, or a Hotmail company, or an Amazon company.

There are three possible scenarios when focusing on the challenges of growing a business and picking the right growth model that is consistent with your business plan and positions you for whatever your ultimate goal is…

Number one: you want to be the gorilla of your industry in a hurry like Amazon.
Number two: you want to ramp-up your business fast and position for an acquisition like Hotmail.
Number three: you want to be a brick and mortar company producing steady profits like Ben & Jerry’s.

Regardless of what your business model is, the CEO and the CFO of the company need to formalize their business growth strategy and evangelize to the man in-charge of running the day-to-day operation of the business. Building a company is no small task? You've got one very important decision to make, because it affects everything else you do. No matter what else you do, you absolutely must figure out which camp you're in, and gear everything you do accordingly, or you're going to have a disaster on your hands.

THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS:

Whether to grow slowly, organically, and profitably, or whether to have a big bang with very fast growth with lots of capital spent in a hurry, that is the question?

The first model, popularly called "Get Big Fast" (a.k.a. "Land Grab"), requires you to raise a lot of capital, and work as quickly as possible to get big fast without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this the “Amazon”, because Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, has practically become the celebrity spokes-model for Get Big Fast.

The second model is called "Hotmail for Sale or Fail". As for the name of our model “Hotmail for Sale or Fail”, I just made it up to make the point. This model requires you to raise only a small amount of capital, position for acquisition, and work as quickly as possible to build momentum to show there is promise of getting big fast… without concern for profitability. I'm going to call this “Hotmail” model, because Hotmail fits this model very well.

The third model, organic growth model, is to start small, with limited goals, and slowly build a business over a long period of time. I'm going to call this “Ben & Jerry’s” model, because Ben & Jerry’s fit this model pretty well.

Now the question is: “where on earth does the Microvision business model fit-in?"

The short answer is...

"Nowhere"

Microvision’s current business growth strategy is either non-existent or is severely flawed after the green laser debacle of late… that still continues to haunt Microvision even after 4 years.

Here’s one clue to the non-existent, or flawed, business growth strategy…

In early 2007, Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, was quite aware of the following facts…

* Embedded pico projector was to be the holly grail for Microvision.
* Without diode RGB lasers; the power, size, and cost of the laser light source based on SHG green lasers would be prohibitive for embedded applications.
* In 2007, diode green lasers were 4 to 5 years away… as like in 2011/2012 time frame.

If you were to assume correctly, and AT was aware of these facts as early as in 2007, then why in hell his management team carried-on with an army of personnel in SG&A [and R&D] to continually spend over $12 million dollars every Qtr for the last four years. If AT had used this readily available information and some gumption to control costs to say $6 million per Qtr… today there would be lot less pressure to raise money to continue with operations─ while still waiting for diode/SHG green lasers, because Microvision would have saved over $96 million dollars in costs without sacrificing much.

Microvision management should have either changed their business growth strategy to “hunker down” and coast on a low cost/low profile basis until the green laser technology was mature enough with more plausible cost and performance metrics… or let someone else run the company, instead of pushing the company hard on the downward spiral of financial gloom and doom while waiting for diode/SHG green lasers.

Microvision’s current business growth strategy assures that they will continue to lose money-- as they are now… and continue to do so all of the next year and five years from now. The cost and availability of green lasers today, or a year or two from now, plays a role but its financial impact on the bottom-line profitability is very small when you consider the vicious [large volume/lower cost/lower absolute dollar margin] cycle associated with commodity products such as PDEs and IPMs that are sold to consumer product OEMs.

As long as Microvision corporate management is fixated on just selling their laser light based PDEs and IPMs in an OEM market that has all the makings of a commodity market… they will be at the mercy of the OEMs; for consumer product introduction time-lines, consumer product pricing, product marketing, and commodity component pricing with no pricing power.

Just look around and tell me if you see any embedded mobile phone camera makers or the touch screen makers [for things like iPad or iPhone] making any money worth crowing about. On the other hand, consumer product OEMs like Apple, with vision and gumption, come to market with one consumer product at a time─ on their terms, and rake-in billions in revenue and profits.

The current Microvision business model calls for hundreds of millions in sales of PDEs and IPMs to make a few millions dollars in net profit in a commodity type pricing environment … and that too, if and when the OEM customers let that happen.

Microvision still has time to re-configure its business growth model and seriously consider launching its own branded consumer products ─ possibly in partnership with large OEMs; and be the shaker, baker, and maker of its own destiny.

Just take the current situation of Microvision patiently waiting on its hands and feet─ and spending $12 million dollars per Qtr; while the OEM for the High End Media Player (HEMP) procrastinates on product configuration, product introduction time-lines, and product marketing and pricing issues.

In the best case scenario, the current Microvision business model can, in a year or two, only produce modest earnings growth of perhaps 12% per years for many years to come… and may never come even close to the hyper growth in revenue and earnings that we once believed was possible.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Chickens Come Home to Roost

2010-10-27T03:55:00.001-04:00

For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade, your management team is awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales. Granted, the backorders and future product introductions do count; but then again who knows for sure what the future would bring, and if the deliveries would be made at profitable terms.

Market does not like the lack of any significant news for extended periods and reacts by selling [and short selling] the Microvision stock. Just over the last few months, the stock price has dropped like a rock [down from $5.44 on October 26th 2009 to $1.96 this morning]. This kind of price drop, it seems, has become a norm for Microvision stock after every Qtr earnings CC or the Annual Shareholders Meeting.

Lack of news; or lack of any visible signs of product promotion, marketing, or sales does not build confidence in Microvision business model… and as a result, more and more investors [and supporters] abandon the MVIS stock every time there is carnage in its market price.

I don’t know if you realize how important the Microvision investors are to the well being, survival, and future prosperity of your [our] company?

Four years is a long time, and $160 million dollars is a lot of money, to accomplish what little progress Microvision has made under the current management.

Over the last four years, I have gone from being ultra bullish initially to being relatively bearish now. And that’s because too little has been accomplished over the last four years at an exorbitant cost of over $160 million dollars. Competition has caught-up with Microvision in all those product categories where the company may want to compete someday. And that someday still remains elusive and lies somewhere in the distant future.

Issues were well known four years ago; and they still are the same─ green laser technology, green laser quantities, green laser pricing, speckle, bow tie image effect, lack of image brightness, too warm to touch, too high a cash burn rate, constant need for additional funding, yada, yada, yada.

Over the last four years, Microvision spends almost $5 million per Qtr in SG&A; with an army of personnel in administration, management, sales, sales engineering, marketing, product development, business development, global business development, strategic planning & development, communications, Investor Relations, out-sourced Public Relations, etc. Any fancy management title that you can think of, you will find at least one, if not more, at Microvision. However, this army has basically produced very little in terms of product awareness, viral marketing, or sales… with years of insignificant revenues and zilch in profits.

If I were to vacillate between bullish to bearish [the so called flip flop] over a short period of time, your comments would have some merits. However, four years is a long time to learn the strengths and weaknesses of the management team that has been in place all these years.

Current management lacks vision and gumption… and that is worrisome because both cash and time is running out for Microvision. More of the same old… same old… will be detrimental to the well being of Microvision and its investors.

[Gumption: Courage, guts, nerve, bravery, common sense, good sense, horse sense, practicality, initiative, resourcefulness, get-up-and-go]

The current PIPE funding through Azimuth Opportunity Fund is indicative of the desperate financial situation that has finally arrived at the door steps of current Microvision management.

Sooner or later, we as the investors of Microvision will learn from our mistakes just like the current management of Microvision would realize soon enough that investor money is not an ever flowing river of milk and honey and the chickens do come home to roost.

Like many others, I too was surprised that Microvision, which has some great products and patents, needs to resort to financing through Azimuth Opportunity Fund. The fund is known as the equivalent of a pawn-shop in the investment community, as their strategy is not to invest for any period of time in the financed companies, but to dump the shares immediately in the market to get their invested capital out… and make as much profit they can get.

For me, and hundreds of others that have followed my recommendations, the mere fact that Microvision had to use such a fire-sale financing method is very negative… and is the final straw that broke the [proverbial] camel’s back.

Either the current management is very inexperienced and unaware how this will reflect on their company; or Microvision is really perceived as a bad risk by creditors.

Either way, the high cash burn rate and creditors' reluctance to lend more money to Microvision is not a good sign.

Someone recently made a comment at the Yahoo Message Board for Microvision…

"Microvision seems utterly unable to deliver on the promise of the technology and they have burned through all the money they are going to be able to raise trying to do so.”

“…. I'm sure the tech will become widely accepted but Microvision will have ceased to exist long before that happens. That's the real danger here. The company has been and is being run into the ground by …"

After 14 years and $385 million dollars later... such comments don't seem too far fetched. When you consider the last 4 years and over $160 million dollars in expenditure, while idling at the stop sign waiting for the green light, you would think that the management really believes in fairy tales and expects even more investor money to fund their orgy.

However, the good news is, if you could call it that, the chickens are coming home to roost─ we are down to the wire and are in the last two innings of this ball game.

Given another 9 months and the last $48 million dollars in pawn-shop slush fund, in my opinion, this fat and bloated management style will come to an end… or at the very least, there will be some re-balancing of the risk/reward matrices at the corporate management level.

Only time will tell the rest of the tale… in the meantime, smart money Wall Street has spoken by showing Microvision the door to the pawn-shops of the financial world.

Once Microvision burns another $48 million over the next three Qtrs, and at the end of this period is unable to self-sustain further cash requirements, nothing would matter... because the Wall Street investor community isn't buying this hide behind the stack of back orders and NDAs story any longer.

If Microvision management got something of substance, then come out with it and tell the Wall Street investors what the heck they have been doing all these years to make any money.

Business is about making money; to pay the bills and then some to show profit. It’s about time they get-on with the business... other wise they would be back to the "pawn shops" to raise more money and last a few more Qtrs to sing the "squint disease" bird song.

[Anonymous]

Disclaimer: These comments are author’s personal observations and opinions and are based on his own research conducted recently.

Microvision: United States Patent 7,822,086

2010-10-26T13:10:00.004-04:00

Laser Projection Temperature Compensation

United States Patent 7,822,086
Brown, et al.
October 26, 2010

Inventors: Brown: Margaret K. (Seattle, WA), Sprague; Randall B. (Carnation, WA), Schaaf; Michael L. (Bainbridge Island, WA), Xue; Bin (Mukilteo, WA)
Assignee: Microvision, Inc. (Redmond, WA)
Appl. No: 11/829,459
Filed: July 27, 2007

Abstract
The temperature of a laser diode changes in response to video content across a line of a displayed image, and the radiance changes as a function of temperature. An adaptive model estimates the temperature of the laser diode based on prior drive current values. For each displayed pixel, diode drive current is determined from the estimated diode temperature and a desired radiance value. A feedback circuit periodically measures the actual temperature and updates the adaptive model.

*****

Here’s the link to full text and images database at USPTO web site…
http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearchadv.htm&r=1&p=1&f=G&l=50&d=PTXT&S1=7,822,086.PN.&OS=pn/7,822,086&RS=PN/7,822,086

Observation:
This morning, the Microvision stock MVIS is up by a few cents and it makes you wonder why? So, we grabed our sleuth hat and went hunting for any news that may be driving this small move.

Here's what I found…
This patent on “Laser Projection Temperature Compensation” is the most significant patent to-date that Microvision now has in its IP portfolio… because, it provides much broader patent protection coverage for RGB laser light source diodes that could be used by anyone for laser light based image projection.

Some folks consider this worth a few cents added to MVIS stock price…
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=MVIS

However, if the stock volume traded today exceeds 1,000,000 shares... then the true impact of this patent could be recognized much more widely as being larger than a few cents rise in MVIS stock price today.

When you consider a few pennies in royalties every time RGB laser light diodes are used as light source in video image projection… the royalty earnings impact could surely be worth lot more than just a few cents in stock price rise.

However, the use of RGB laser diodes as light source for multi-media video image projection lies in the future... so do the potential royalty based earnings for Microvision.

We just have to wait and see how this new twist in Microvision’s future plays out in terms of dollars and cents?

Anant Goel

Microvision: CEATEC 2010 Japan

2010-10-06T13:20:00.001-04:00

Microvision is at CEATEC 2010 Japan... booth #2A38.

That’s in the Home & Personal Zone at the Digital Network Stage.

Some of the other major global CE firms are its neighbors…
• OKI
• Toshiba
• Sony
• Sharp
• Panasonic
• Hitachi
• Fujitsu
• Cisco Systems
• NTT Docomo
• NEC

Some nice exposure to OEM community is expected due to Microvision booth proximity to these “shakers and bakers” of the Consumer Electronics industry.

Auri Rahimzadeh, President of The Auri Group, is the American journalist covering Microvision. This is what he had to say about Microvision after day 1 at the CEATEC Japan…

720P Laser Pico Projector from Microvision

Claiming to be the “smallest pico projector capable of 720p", Microvision showed off a pretty wicked solution for business professionals and those who need a low-power, super portable OEM-ready product. 15 lumens and 720p, and it’s smaller than 8 postage stamps.

PicoP also showed off a laser-based in-car heads-up display, with a full 120 degree field of view.

*****

Here’s the link to his blog post from Day 1…

http://www.windowslive.com/Connect/Post/d982845e-ef83-4d1d-9fc1-d50ac5e5db76

This year, it’s all about the 3D display technology with Pico projectors getting very little attention.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Goes Sour on Apple?

2010-09-30T15:16:00.001-04:00

There may not be any Apple in Microvision future… because Apple has considered but never [yes that’s right] warmed-up to the idea of embedding a pico projector, Microvision’s or anyone else’s, in any of its product line.

That’s a very bold statement and demands due diligence and research to support this argument.

First, watch this Alex Tokman interview video dated September 27, 2010. Watch carefully; from three minutes seven seconds to three minutes thirty five seconds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MQtsuj1y-I&feature=youtube_gdata_player

AT sounds sour on Apple don’t you think? For someone who used to answer questions about Apple as: “Apple world loves us”… now talks about Apple as a forgone conclusion in the iPhone vs. Google Android battle of the giants. Google Android is a new entrant to the smartphone arena and anyone worth listening to in this technology space would tell you: “it’s too early to tell who would be the leader… if there is going to be one at all in the first place?”

AT sounds sour on Apple and there may be a good reason for it.

Vast majority of technologists with-in Apple camp are convinced that pico projection technology is not mature enough to risk the integrity of their established technology offering… like computing, MP3 player, or mobile me platform [iPad, iPhone]. Unless there is an Apple product genre that offers pico projection as a primary function… there is very little chance of a pico projector making its way into the existing Apple product line? Unfortunately, that is not the only issue.

Another issue with an embedded pico projector inside any of the Apple product line, according to my sources, are the concern for primary product reliability and common mode failure caused by or because of the embedded pico projector functionality.

The reasoning goes like this...

“Pico projection is relatively new technology; with very little, if any, proven performance and reliability track record. If the pico projector goes on the fritz, the primary functionality of the iPad, iPhone or iWhatever is lost and the entire unit must be repaired or replaced”

That does not sound too good for embedded pico projectors for the Apple product line… at least for now.

However, all is not lost.

Smart companies have figured out the way around Apple’s position on embedded pico projectors. They are coming out with hand held pico projectors as an accessory unit for the Apple products─ like Microvision SHOWwx for one example, or as a docking station for the Apple mobile me products [iPod, iPhone, iPad] with added bells and whistles.

Anant Goel

Disclaimer: These comments are author’s personal observations and opinions and are based on his own research conducted recently.

Microvision: Stock Has Headline Risk

2010-09-22T15:56:00.004-04:00

I’m probably the strongest supporter of Microvision and its current management… but if you were to read some of my recent posts, you would never believe that.

I have followed this company for more than 10 years and have been an investor, with millions of dollars at stake, for over 5 years.

Last 4 years have been the most excruciating and financially devastating period for me and hundreds of Microvision investors that I personally know.

If you watch the ticker symbol MVIS, you will see that someone [or more than one someone] is selling a small number of shares at very low prices to spook the long retail investors into unloading their position… only to come-in to scoop-it-up by the bucket loads. This seems to be going on for several days now? While the net market value of Microvision keeps going to hell in a hand basket; the management stays totally aloof and silent. And that makes you wonder why?

Let’s face it, for the last four years, the traders and manipulators have played with MVIS stock like a Yo Yo… because they are able to exploit the headline risk associated with Microvision to their advantage. While the die hard longs just hang-in risking their hard earning investment dollar, the corporate management of Microvision hides behind the green laser curtain and blows the NDAs hot air up our stack.

For four years it has been the… same old… same old.

This stock has no backbone and has several headline risks going forward …

• first it was the green laser availability

• then it was the price of blue & green lasers

• next it was the brightness and speckle of projected image

• then it will be the debate of safety issue with lasers

• further down the road, it will be the anemically slow revenue and earnings growth

• then it will be the issue of poor margins

• and then towards the end of our journey [if we live to be 90+ years old] it will be the case of missing brass balls.

I have said it before and I’ll repeat it again…

“This company’s entire future lies with the green lasers… and to make the matter even worse, the corporate management hides behind the stack of backorders and NDAs. For the last four years, this company does not have much to show for new business development… other than polishing and patenting what was accomplished four years ago and they seem to be frozen in place─ like a deer caught in the dazzle of green light on the long road to the promise land.”

Unfortunately, the key issue may not be just the green lasers… but also the case of an ill conceived and misguided Business Plan or the lack of management execution. After fifteen years and $380 million dollars later, all we get is $2 million in 2nd Qtr 2010 revenues and $12 million in quarterly loss… all at substantial negative margins and lots of promises for the future.

There are many more headline issues facing Microvision and the slow bleeding in the price of MVIS stock is to be expected… especially when the corporate management keeps mum on important issues; and lacks the conviction, or perhaps the business savvy to manage investor expectation over so many years.

I didn’t think that I would ever say this, but here it goes…

Its tmie to cut dwon yuor psotiion szie and persevre yuor ctpaail.

Get it?

This is called hiding behind a stack of your abc’s and ─ as long as the first and last letter are in the right place─ you can play with the English language alphabet and still get your message across. The point is, if the corporate management has something to say and wants to get a message across… it can do so in so many different ways.

Longer the management of Microvision delays release of any significant news [of any kind], the lower the price of MVIS will go down. Here’s why…

With each passing day without any significant news, the smart money will convince you that at the moment Microvision don’t actually have a product. The product they are selling right now is the inferior and soon to be replaced by the second generation product they have announced recently. What we have, is an under illuminated novelty item that has a very limited appeal in its present configuration. They made the current technology obsolete last April when they announced that they have a 15 lumen 720 HD product solution… but that product wasn’t going to be available until some time in the future. But what that announcement did was to severely limit the market for what they had and would have for at least one more year.

You can imagine: “what a marketing blooper that’s going to be?”

The simple fact is that Microvision doesn’t yet seem to have a product that the market wants at the current prices and the product that the market may want is what they are developing… but that product and competitive prices won’t be available until the second half of 2011.

You don’t have to take my word for it. The market price of MVIS stock says it all. A company with any kind of near term prospects doesn’t trade at $2.11… after having traded at $5.85 in the recent past.

From an investor’s point of view; management’s total silence is shocking… because no one has ever asked for customer specific information yet they hide behind the backorders and the NDAs argument.

All the investors want to know: “do they see light at the end of this very long and very dark tunnel"?

Anonymous

[Disclosure: Based upon input from dozens of Microvision stock investors with net Long positions]

Microvision: College Campus Marketing

2010-09-14T12:10:00.001-04:00

Microvision recently announced a “back to college” promotion for its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx… by reducing the list price down to $449 which also included the VGA dock.

After having made an extensive check with my contacts in the computer resellers community [from my past life] that sells consumer electronics gadgets to college students all over the US… I have to say that Microvision’s marketing effort is limited to a blurb about the price reduction offer on their web site… and that’s about it.

There are no signs of any marketing effort to promote or sell SHOWwx to the college students… other than an advertisement on the Microvision web site at…

http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/index.html

College students represent, for many companies like Microvision, a valuable demographic. It's easy to understand why… because most young people are still shaping their brand loyalty, they usually have disposable income, and most are interested in trying new things. Unfortunately, marketing to college students can pose a challenge because they are immune to many classic methods of marketing. By injecting a little fun into the message and having the right attitude, campus marketing can bring your product or service a lot of attention.

Before you decide to launch your marketing campaign, be aware of the “Campus Solicitation” policy of each and every individual campus on your target list. Most colleges discourage aggressive solicitation of students, faculty, and staff on campus. These activities often disrupt campus routine, offend segments of the College community, and imply endorsement by the College of particular products, services, or ideas.

Here’s one idea that is most cost effective and incorporates all of the best of breed ideas in one place…

• Hire a company that specializes in collegiate marketing. Many years ago, I worked with this company called “New Age Marketing”. In my humble opinion, they are the best in the business. Check them out…

http://www.collegiatepromotions.com/cpfeatured.html

You don’t have to create the viral networking buzz yourself… these guys will do it for you in the most cost effective manner.

One other thing that you may consider…

• Partnering with the School

Piggyback on the excitement around college sports events. Football game days at many schools─ Ohio State, Alabama and USC, for example─ are massive undertakings, attracting 100,000 fans to the stadium and thousands more to the surrounding neighborhood. Establishing an official promotional partnership can be expensive, but valuable. Your company could purchase ad space in the stadium. To capitalize on the opportunity without an official license… you must arrive on campus few hours before kickoff and engage the thousands of excited students walking around.

Enter into an agreement with the university to provide goods to students at a low cost. If they have your product in hand, they will learn to turn to you in the future. For example, according to Marguerite Reardon at Wired Magazine, Duke University spent $500,000 to purchase discounted Apple iPods in an attempt to assess their usefulness in higher education. Apple gave 1,650 Duke Freshmen the devices, helping the school and helping Apple expand its market share.

The College or recognized student groups occasionally invite vendors to fulfill particular campus objectives. The Director of Student Life must provide written approval to such vendors to grant exceptions to solicitation policies. Student groups must guarantee the availability of the products that their sponsored vendors sell. These sales must be cleared in writing in advance with the Director of Student Life, and when an athletic team is involved, with the Director of Athletics. No outside organization may proselytize, distribute, or sell products without direct sponsorship of a student organization recognized by the College Student Government or an administrative office.

Here’re some thoughts on doing the marketing to college students on your own…

• Colleges provide sellers with a captive audience full of hungry buyers. College campus advertisements are successful in reaching large numbers of people due to the dense population of students and staff that frequent campus buildings. There are a number of ways that you can effectively advertise on a college campus. By engaging in some creative ad placement, you can increase the success of your business and introduce your product to a whole new group of consumers.

• Print Marketing: Tailor your print marketing to the mindset present in most young people. Instead of putting together ads with lots of tiny words, spend a little extra money with the printer to ensure that your ads have striking images. Think about it; "got milk?" is only two words, but is an ad campaign everyone knows. If nothing else, include a link to your website to take advantage of the increasingly digital lifestyle of the student. Indeed, you should place the signs on outdoor billboards around campus. More important, post them on billboards inside, especially near administrative offices. Thousands of bored students stream past the registrar’s office, and your ad could catch their eye.

• Quad Posting Boards: Many colleges and universities feature a central posting board in their campus quad or other open area. This board contains flyers, student postings and campus event reminders. Advertise your product by placing a flyer on this message board amongst the other messages. Many students peruse this board regularly, so placing your flyer here will surely get you some views.

• Hire enthusiastic young people: to prowl the campus with flyers. Better yet, have them distribute free T-shirts with your product message in vivid colors. Young people are more likely to stop if another young person is flagging them down. Have your employees wear brightly colored T-shirts and make sure they are enthusiastic, above all else.

• Hire some students: to go around to dorms and put flyers up on bulletin boards or stuff mailboxes.

• Put an ad: in the school newspaper.

• Place an ad: on the college radio station.

• Send your flyers: to fraternities, sororities, athletic groups, etc… especially at school "party" times.

One thing that you must not do; is hire yet another “Director of Campus Marketing”… only to fire him/her a year or two later for lack of generating any tangible sales revenue.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Showcase Advances in PC Gaming Technology with Project Tuatara (Part 5)

2010-09-12T14:35:00.002-04:00

Here’s the highlight of the news from this morning...

September 2, 2010 at 9:40 AM
By Stephen Totilo
News at Kotaku Web site

With This Gun, Your First-Person Shooters Can Surround You

“In Dallas last month I spotted a big inflatable igloo. It had been erected by a company called Microvision on the exhibition floor at QuakeCon. Inside of it, I discovered, was a man holding this gun.”

Here’s the link to the full article and make sure to watch the video…
http://kotaku.com/5627882/with-this-gun-your-first+person-shooters-can-surround-you

Here’s a very interesting observation…

“The Microvision people were getting QuakeCon attendees to line up for Project Tuatara, an experimental technology designed to be used with any mouse-and-keyboard first-person shooter.”

For this demo, they were using the released PC game Operation Flashpoint. Here is what the video from QuakeCon exhibition looks like…

http://kotaku.com/5627882/with-this-gun-your-first+person-shooters-can-surround-you

[Click the link and watch the video]

It seems to me Microvision is using the new 720P HD PicoP in this first-person shooter gun… which they call as the Controller. No wonder the video is so colorful, bright and crisp. It's much better than what we have seen before.

Here’s the product review by Dana “Dizzy” at the QuakeCon 2010 web site…

“Perhaps the most astounding in its revolutionary graphics and futuristic gaming potential is located at the Project Tuatara booth. What looked like an inflatable black igloo (as I called it to Bowl, who politely skipped over my total gaming ignorance) was actually an oasis of 3-dimensional gaming. Inside the 10-foot dome was the culmination of modern total gaming immersion. Dave Lashmet and Andrew Rosen, the men behind Operation Flashpoint, explained to us their ingenious and revolutionary game control system.”

“The controller is one of several gun models, including an FN F2000 and a TR-21. This controller is linked to a PC as an air mouse. The video feed is sent back to the gun and projected using pico HD lasers from Microvision, the backer of Project Tuatara. The background is then translated to a three-dimensional polar axis that can be projected onto any surface. Dave recommends white walls and a dark room to get the best results, but one benefit of the pico lasers is that they are always in focus.”

"Dave and Andrew have both had extensive experience playing in the last month since this project was initiated, and have been able to play over 20 different games on a series of different backdrops, including one instance when they set up white sheets on hotel room walls. Though they are hosting 3-minute trials of Lost Planet to patient gamers (there is an hour-long line), the controller can be configured to virtually any game in just a few minutes. This controller is incredible because it is a step toward actual 3-dimensional gaming. The control isn’t released yet (this is a privileged promo experience) but they hope to release a total 3-dimensional experience in the coming years, complete with surround sound and not only lateral dimensions, but 3-D glasses to enhance background depth.”

Here’s the link to Dana “Dizzy” product review of Microvision’s prototype FPS gaming gun controller…
http://quakecon.quake-live.tv/2010/08/13/project-tuatara/

Looking back a few months…

In December 2009, Microvision's PicoP Display Engine was at the Heart of Realistic Game Demo at Intel Extreme Masters Tournament

This is what Ian Brown of Microvision said at the Intel sponsored tourney at Edmonton, Alberta…

“The game application takes advantage of our PicoP display engine’s infinite focus,” Brown says. “We believe that Microvision’s technology can be used to create a new level of realism and interactive freedom for gamers. As the worldwide market for video games exceeds $50 billion, we are very excited to partner with Intel to showcase this new advance in gaming technology to the world’s best gamers at Intel Extreme Masters.”

“Intel believes that radical innovations like Microvision’s laser projection engine will continue to drive the gaming industry forward,” said George Woo, Intel Corporation’s Marketing Manager of the Intel Extreme Masters. “We are pleased to demonstrate how Microvision’s technology and the Intel® Core™ i7 processor Extreme Edition can create a new way for gamers to become immersed in the game world.”

Now you can take you gaming experience several notches up with a PicoP projector from Microvision and your gaming experience will never be the same...

“These hardcore gamers soon may be unleashed from their stationary position to enjoy a realistic virtual combat experience with life-sized video images, projected on walls, ceilings and floors, all from a weapon-styled projection game controller they hold in their hands.”

“Game players at the tourney who give the prototype a spin will experience “an immersive, 360-degree feel,” promises Ian Brown, Microvision’s Vice President of Sales and Marketing. “The company’s laser projection engine can show a distortion-free image on nearly any flat or curved surface. Consequently, the game goes along with the gamer and reflects the character’s position in three-dimensional space.”

The worldwide market for video games exceeds $50 billion.

Did I say that before?

Yep, I just wanted to make sure we register that clearly, because that is an additional market, beyond pico projection, that Microvision is addressing in collaboration with Intel... the biggest PC gamer in the world.

Anant Goel

Next Paradigm Shift: The Internet Would Democratize Broadcasting and Content Delivery

2010-09-05T22:49:00.000-04:00

Over the last few years, there has been such a confluence of technologies in so many different sectors that it is about to bring several paradigm shifts… and in the process shape our lives and also open-up new frontiers to commercial opportunities.

There is a long list of paradigm shifts taking place right under our noses while we work, play or snooze. As the title suggests, here we will just focus on: How Internet Would Democratize Broadcasting and Content Delivery.

How attractive does a new technology have to be to warrant adoption and utilization?

It all started with YouTube and the beginning of ‘broadcast your self” phenomenon in the year 2005.

YouTube is free; and is a video-sharing website on which users can upload, share, and view videos. YouTube uses Adobe Flash Video technology to display a wide variety of user-generated video content, including movie clips, TV clips, and music videos, as well as, amateur content such as video blogs and short original videos. In the early days, most all of the content on YouTube was uploaded by individuals, although there were some early adopter media corporations including CBS, BBC, VEVO and other organizations that offered some of their material via the site, as part of the YouTube partnership program.

Unregistered users can watch the videos, while registered users are permitted to upload an unlimited number of videos. Videos that are considered to contain potentially offensive content are available only to registered users 18 and older.

Before the launch of YouTube, there were only a few easy methods available for ordinary computer users who wanted to post videos online. However, with its simple interface, YouTube made it possible for anyone with an Internet connection to post a video that a worldwide audience could watch within a few minutes. The wide range of topics covered by YouTube has turned video sharing into one of the fastest growing and most important part of Internet culture.

Follow the Eyeballs

Consumer demand for service providers to deliver content to any device, at any time and in any location is growing more prevalent each year. Consumers are gaining additional control over how they access content, whether it’s through personal computers, mobile devices or set-top boxes… challenging service providers’ traditional walled living room offerings and in the process threatening their position in the content delivery value chain.

“All service providers need to do is follow the eyeballs,” said Stef van der Ziel, Jet-Stream CEO. “Thanks to the Internet, consumers are revolutionizing the way they access content, and content owners and advertisers are following their lead. Service providers don’t want to be left behind; they want a portion of the content distribution opportunity.”

To do this, service providers must evolve from triple play services─ offering phone, Internet and video, to ‘open play’ platforms that deliver content to all four screens─ PC, Mobile client, TV and the pico projector.

Technology: Deployment of the “Four Screens CDN”

Anyone with commercial interests in streaming media services and CDN [content delivery network] technologies; and that has ever produced a video for YouTube or a web cast, will tell you that the Internet would democratize broadcasting. If a college dropout with heavy interest in media and technology could broadcast video globally on YouTube, then anyone would be able to do so. In a matter of time, all content would be distributed via the web to PC’s, mobile clients, and TV’s and pico projectors. The signs are all around you… just look at the latest products and services offered by Apple, Amazon, NetFlix, Hulu, ESPN and so on.

Years ago, I envisioned a future where consumers and companies would not be locked in walled living rooms… and content owners could distribute content directly to consumers. It was just a matter of time, people and companies [like Apple, NetFlix, Hulu, ESPN] would use the Internet to share content. I also foresaw that the Internet could not handle the sheer volumes of content. There would be a huge need for smart distribution technologies. Telcos will have to follow the eyeballs and embrace Internet based content and consumption on all four screens─ the PC, mobile client, TV, and pico projector by deploying intelligent CDNs.

The Open Play

Enormous amount of resources will be spent to scale the web for professional and massive content delivery; to democratize broadcasting, to disrupt the traditional cable and broadcasting industry and to break open this market so anyone could create, distribute and consume content, anywhere, without borders.

Continued Market Growth Ahead for CDNs

In 2008, the entire global market for video delivery services was only $400 million, according to Frost & Sullivan. That’s a really small number when compared to the overall CDN market size or many of the other segments of the infrastructure market. It shows that the CDN market still has a long way to go and that many opportunities still exist.

Most content owners still don’t make any money with their content, but just imagine what the CDN market will look like when they do. CDNs will be even more crucial down the road as content owners rely on them to help them generate revenue. In the next few years, as more devices [like Apple TV, iPhone, iPad] come to the market, consumers will begin to adopt them in large numbers—then the market will change.

While many ask when this is going to happen and what the next tipping point will be that gives CDNs the next surge of traffic, you have to remember that it does not happen overnight. Many use the example of YouTube and 2007 as being the year that the CDN market really exploded. But what most people didn’t see, or don’t know about, is all the work that was taking place in the CDN space leading up to that event in the years before. Companies worked very hard from 2004 to 2007—none of that perceived growth in 2007 truly happened overnight.

Today, we’re building the market size for CDNs every single day. Even with the poor economy, you don’t see less content online… you see more. You don’t see poorer quality video… you see HD. You don’t see fewer devices… you see more platforms than ever before. This is what we’re building on. So when it seems like there is a sudden surge in the CDN business years from now, with or without Telco’s, remember that it did not happen overnight.

Tough times for many of the vendors in the CDN space may be coming to an end. All industries need corrections, and the CDN industry is no different. The bottom line is that the CDN industry has never been stronger, has never been more needed, and will only continue to evolve to help do more than just deliver some bits from point A to point B.

In the future, private CDNs─ like the one rumored at Apple, will flourish. Streaming media analyst Dan Rayburn reported last year that Apple was planning to bring some of its CDN capabilities in-house. “Folks I have spoken to inside Apple told me that once the new data center is completed, Apple plans to have a more active role in doing their own content delivery,” Rayburn wrote, noting a precedent. “While its way too early to speculate what kind of content Apple will deliver and in what volume, this strategy is nearly identical to what we’ve seen Microsoft do over the years.”

In closing, I must re-state that most CDNs will become profitable, some will be worth acquiring, and many content owners will be willing to pay more for a service that makes them money. We’re all waiting for this time to come. And while it won’t come overnight, I think it will happen sooner than many people may realize.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Ultimate in Mobility… Functionality… Cool Factor (update 9/2010)

2010-09-04T13:44:00.002-04:00

It would be cool if Microvision's laser PicoP Display Engine was inside this cube…
http://www.psfk.com/2009/05/60-inch-screen-in-your-pocket.html

Last year, there was so much speculation in the media [by designer YankoDesign] that it almost felt like the real thing would be on the market soon. Just look at the write-up on this “Nokia Pulse Projector” from last year…

“Nokia Pulse Projector is a tiny LED projector that also functions as an NXT speaker with Dolby Sound. This tiny projector uses Bluetooth and Pulse software to communicate with a mobile phone.

It’s meant to pair up with mobile phone, making a pair of perfect multimedia device and the user will be able to use the mobile phone to control this LED projector. The Nokia Pulse Projector relies on DLP Technology for high quality imagery. It’s able to project with native resolution of 1280×768 and 1500:1 contrast ratio pimps out crisp image quality, with picture sizes ranging from 15 inches diagonally all the way up to 60 inches at 7.87 feet. It even sports LED light technology with 1000 lumens of brightness plus 16.7 million colors.

It’ll be another great mini-sized projector that can be carried around anywhere you go for an impromptu presentation of those pictures, videos and slides on your mobile phone, and it lets the mobile phone to be used as the projector’s remote. Nice, but it should be just a concept at the moment."

[via yankodesign]

*****

Here’s the link…
http://askalexia.com/2009/05/23/nokia-pulse-projector/

Here’s some more on this Nokia Pulse with Microvision Mobile Projector inside speculation…

“The Nokia Pulse, a concept by Miika Mahonen, is similar to the soon to be released Microvision Mobile Projector. They’re both designed to be powerful mobile display systems that can use a mobile phone as the source of video and as a remote control. The Nokia Pulse also combines an NXT-speaker with Dolby sound processing into the compact device, which can (theoretically) project images up to 60-inches on any wall.”

Continues…
[via Yanko Design]

*****

Here’s the link…
http://www.psfk.com/2009/05/60-inch-screen-in-your-pocket.html

One year later, however, the concept remains to be just that… a concept. But wait a minute… over the last year, a few developments have come together to bring us closer to this, or something similar to this, as a possible reality in the near future.

There are essentially three parts for this concept to work and they all seem to be in place now…

• Microvision laser based PicoP Projector SHOWwx: was released in the US in March of 2010… and that’s the major part of the puzzle now in place.

The award-winning SHOWwx, available for sale through a variety of distributors and at http://www.microvision.com/showwx, is a standalone laser pico projector intended for simple plug-and-play integration with mobile devices, such as iPod, cell phones, MP3 players, laptops and gaming devices.

• Samsung's new Wireless USB chipset: enables HD streaming with less power.

It's a beautiful combination, really… lower power consumption, and support for high bandwidth applications. That marriage is evident in Samsung's newest Wireless USB chipset, which was built around Ultra Wide Band (UWB) technology and designed to enable high-def streaming between a mobile host device and a tethered device for viewing.

Ultra-Wide Band technology offers many advantages, especially in terms of very high data transmission rates which are well beyond those possible with currently deployed technologies such as 802.11a, b, g, WiMax and the like. As such UWB technology is gaining considerable acceptance and being proposed for use in a number of areas. Already Bluetooth, Wireless USB and others are developing solutions, and in these areas alone its use should be colossal.

According to Samsung, the two-chip solution will be aimed at cameras, camcorders, TVs, PCs, tablets, beam projectors, portable HDDs, Blu-ray players and handsets, and given that it can handle a theoretical high of 480Mbps with an average power consumption of less than 300mW, even the weakest smartphone battery should be able to stream at least a single episode of Family Guy to the TV or a pico projector. It's slated to hit mass production in Q4 and we'd say more details should be available right around CES 2011.

• Pulse Software: that controls communications between the pico projector and the mobile host device. This Pulse software could be part of the Samsung’s wireless USB chipset solution, or a company specific product like… Nokia Pulse [if there is such a thing]…or Apple AirPlay… etc.

“While the Pulse is still just an idea, Microvision is currently working with other companies to incorporate their PicoP Display Engine into devices such as phones, media players, and laptops. Is screen size on your mobile phone irrelevant if you can project onto any wall?”

Perhaps!

Just take a look…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypZO6_7hcNQ&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0

With Microvision laser PicoP Display Engine in-side; this cube could be the ultimate in mobility, functionality and cool factor.

Not only that, it is a productivity enhancing tool for business communications, as well as, a perfect product for personal and interactive entertainment… all in one cool package.

Everything that you need to put this cool product out there for the consumer to buy is here… all it takes, is the vision and the will to succeed before the next product cycle or someone else comes-up with a better mouse trap.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Apple─ The Media Player OEM?

2010-08-31T15:22:00.004-04:00

At the Microvision shareholder’s meeting on September 15th, 2009, there were some questions asked about OEM relationship with Apple.

My take on CEO Alex Tokman’s answer was something like: “Apple World loves us and we have to be ready… I just ask you that you be patient.” In all probability, Microvision was in talks with “Apple”, however, there wasn't enough unit volume of PicoP Display Engines for Apple’s appetite at that time to be engaged officially.

Fast forward to today, last day of August 2010…

A year later, you may want to re-visit the questions about Apple in light of Microvision’s $11.1 million order from a [non-disclosed] Media Player OEM for the embedded PDEs…

• $11.1 million in initial order is not a small order by any means… because after the initial order, all of Microvision production could go to this OEM on a monthly basis. And these monthly orders represent about $12 million per Qtr [20,000pm x 3m x $200per unit = $12 million] in the first half of 2011… and increasing.

• With 5 Green Laser suppliers, the unit production can easily be ramped –up to 100,000 units per month… and that’s a decent production run for any Premium Media Player OEM like Apple or NetFlix.

• With diode GL coming into play some time in 2011, number of units can only go higher than the 100,000 per month… and that’s not shabby at all.

• Since announcing the Media Player OEM early this year, Microvision has been very tight lipped about the identity of this OEM… which is a typical modus of operands for any of the Apple suppliers. A small time OEM would probably follow the example of rest of the OEM flock in the CE industry─ where it is a common practice to earn some free publicity by announcing new products in the pipe line.

• CEO of Microvision has, on more than one occasion, stated publicly that the Media Player OEM would announce the product on its own time schedule before the 2010 Christmas shopping season. Well, early September is a good time to announce new products for the 2010 seasonal shopping… don’t you think? Apple will be making product announcements on September 1st … now that’s some coincidence!!!

• On March 8th, 2010, Microvision announced two new members of the management team: Joe O'Sullivan as Vice President of Global Operations and Michael Fritts as Vice President of Global Sales, Marketing, and Business Development.

Mr. O'Sullivan is a consumer electronics industry veteran with executive management experience at Apple Computer and InFocus. At Apple, Mr. O'Sullivan spent 15 years in operations and supply chain management, including Vice President of Operations where he was instrumental in building a global operations infrastructure in Asia. In addition, he developed Apple's International Procurement Organization strategy, building a structure in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Europe.

Today, a day before Apple’s new product introduction on September 1st , we hear this rumor about: “New iPod May Include Projector”. Could it be Microvision’s laser based PicoP projector inside the Apple’s new premium iPod?

We just have to wait and see.

Here’s the link to the rumor news…
http://www.benzinga.com/company-news/contracts/10/08/450653/new-ipod-may-include-projector-mvis-aapl

While we wait, let’s look at Apple’s secret to success…

“Show and Sell”

All the while the competition…

"Flashes an exotic prototype, then – Presto! – get consumers to buy their more boring stuff. That kind of thinking still rules at most electronics companies. Apple under Steve Jobs only shows off actual products. And that difference is Apple’s arcane secret to success."

Like washed-up Catskill magicians unable to let go of old routines while a brash upstart steals their audience, nearly every maker of consumer electronics in the world clings to a quaint song-and-dance about prototypes.

“Here is your possible future,” they bark, flourishing the latest conceptual product from the lab. “Now watch us make it disappear!”

Apple’s chief magician, however, knows better, pulling solid objects out of the ether; products you can actually buy.

No one can be sure until the rumors lead the way to actual news in the media or corporate announcements.

But if you think it is possible, than rest assure it can happen someday.

If this sounds like a minor complaint about most of the industry’s lack of imagination in marketing, you’re misunderstanding the whole act. The fact that Apple does not reveal prototypes but shipping products; is the fundamental difference between their entire business strategy and that of the rest of the CE industry. It evokes a feeling of trust between Apple and consumers – that when Apple actually reveals a product, it’s something that they’re confident enough to support for years to come.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Investors Are Just Frustrated

2010-08-27T16:36:00.002-04:00

Definition of “Frustration”…

• The act of frustrating or an instance of being frustrated
• The state of being frustrated
• Something that serves to frustrate

Let's add one more definition to the word frustration...

“waiting for definitive plans and answers to simple question from Microvision while being told that the management will disclose them soon by the next CC… or some other future event that has come and gone by the way side over the last 4 years.”

How dare we worry about where our investment dollars are going when it's such a small part of the big picture of: “the holly grail of embedded PicoP projectors in the billion unit mobile world?” What frustrates us now is another article about the Green Laser price and availability. It sounded like yet another warning, by those in the industry, why a laser based PicoP will fail because of Green Laser pricing issues. I’m sure Microvision brass has the answers, and has its reasons for keeping quite on the issue, but can somebody please throw some light on this 4 year old issue of GL availability, pricing and stability issues as they affect the profit margins and eventual success of laser based PicoP projectors.

Here’re some more thoughts on frustration…

Having the wool pulled over our eyes is frustrating;
Lack of communications in spoken English is frustrating;
Waiting for straight answers is frustrating;
Having legitimate concerns brushed aside is frustrating;
Being told to take the pain and ignore the small stuff is frustrating;
Watching the market price of MVIS drift lower and lower is frustrating, too.

There is enough dry powder on the sidelines to send this market [and MVIS stock price] significantly higher, even into the plus column for the year. But, would-be buyers continue to be stymied as each day brings more questions rather than answers and we keep hearing how off base our concerns are. While panic has become the permanent aroma that greets investors each day, I sense frustration could be moving the market more than any other feeling these days, and certainly over the last few days.

I'm getting emails and phone calls and I know that many folks just want to throw in the towel out of frustration and a lack of confidence. Day to day it's hard to see where it will end, but I think we are going to be just fine and at the end of the day [in mid 2011] Microvision investor will come out whole.

If you are wondering “why mid 2011”…

Here’s what I have finally figured out…

• Currently, the quantities of synthetic green lasers and the ASICs are too small─ like 5,000 to 10,000 units per month, and the cost is relatively too expensive… thus the negative profit margins. The key word is “relatively”… meaning product cost [in such small quantities] is more than the transfer price that can be charged to the OEMs at a suggested retail price of $549.

• To put it another way; if the retail price was increased to $649 and the transfer price charged to OEMs also raised by say $60… than the relative cost of product─ at such small quantities, may NOT be, relatively speaking, too expensive… thus the potential for positive profit margins.

However, the recent drop of $100 in the retail price of SHOWwx [from $549 to $449] mucks the waters yet again and that is frustrating. Does this mean that the price of synthetic green lasers has come down significantly to a point where Microvision can charge less for SHOWwx and still make some profit? Well, that is one thought… as in one side of the coin so to speak.

The other side of the coin could be; that Microvision needs to clear old stock at a loss in anticipation of second generation PDEs that are expected to be cheaper, smaller, more energy efficient and with higher 15- lumen brightness and 720P HD resolution.

We don’t know for sure one way or the other… and that is frustrating.

The current debate between synthetic green lasers versus the diode [direct] green lasers got so confusing at the 2nd Qtr earnings CC that Microvision CEO responded with a Blog post at The Displayground to clear-up the matter.

Here’s the link…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1761#comments

Green Laser Diodes Are On the Way, In the Meantime If Done Right Synthetic Green Lasers Have an Embedded Play

What I find very interesting is the comment about…

“We have already begun to see availability of the first generation synthetic lasers increase. The next generation synthetic green lasers are expected to be more efficient and less expensive than their first generation cousins. We also anticipate that the direct green lasers targeted for introduction in the second half of next year may not reach desired performance and cost targets immediately. For these reasons, we believe that synthetic lasers could continue to remain a competitive alternative to direct green lasers for at least the first 4-5 years after diodes are introduced.”

From the CEO comments about synthetic lasers, it is now clear that they have 4-5 years as the economic life cycle… before the diode green laser mature and become cost competitive. Considering the potential volume sales of laser based pico projectors over the next 5 years, which could easily run into 200-300 million units, there’s enough incentive for the synthetic green laser manufactures to ramp-up production with corresponding drop in prices.

I see two opportunities for cost reduction, and a very strong possibility of profitable margins, in the near future…

• Next generation green lasers and ASICs should be coming out in the next three or four months and they are more efficient and less expensive… and that bodes well for positive margins.

• A significantly large order from an OEM, in the 50,000 to 100,000 units per month range, will not only motivate the synthetic Green Laser suppliers, Corning and Osram, to crank-up the production lines… but it will also help reach the critical volume in terms of quantities that would result in some dramatic price drop.

With next generation synthetic Green Laser supply continuing to improve over the rest of year 2010, it is just the matter of time that a visionary company like Apple will come waltzing down the aisle to embed Microvision’s PDEs in their smartphones, iPads or iPods etc. If it is not Apple or NetFlix initially, it will be someone else… you can bet on that.

It may not be quite apparent to the naked eye; but with a little diligence the negative profit margins issue is just a short term anomaly that should correct itself in the next three to four months.

In the meantime, we are just frustrated!

Anant Goel

Microvision: Announces Second Quarter 2010 Results

2010-08-27T16:22:00.001-04:00

Press Release
August 05, 2010
04:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time

Quarterly Revenue Grows to $2.1 Million and Backlog to $20.1 Million

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported its operating and financial results for the second quarter of 2010.

Operating Results
“I’m pleased to report that our ongoing investment to improve our production and supply chain capabilities resulted in a more stable and predictable flow of finished product in the second quarter,” stated Alexander Tokman, President and CEO. “We continue to see an increase in our green laser supply and smooth conversion of raw materials into finished goods. This strengthening of capacity will become increasingly important in the second half of 2010 as we plan to deliver larger volumes of PicoP®-based products to our customers to meet their strong demand.

“Our backlog grew to a record $20.1 million and includes a $3.4 million follow-on order from our initial OEM display engine customer. The demand for our PicoP-based products remains strong from both existing and new customers who are excited about the unique capabilities of our PicoP projection solution. In connection with our capacity increase during the second quarter, we have increased our global distribution points and continue to qualify additional distribution partners. Customer response to the SHOWWX™ laser pico projector has been very positive.

“Our future success will depend on our ability to anticipate consumer needs and rapidly innovate to bring new products to market leveraging the unique capabilities of our PicoP technology. With this in mind, we recently unveiled a 15-lumen, 720p HD-ready pico projector prototype. We have received a very enthusiastic response to the high resolution, brighter images from this prototype and believe that advancing our PicoP technology platform will continue to position us as a premier provider of customer-focused projection solutions,” concluded Mr. Tokman.

Financial Results
The following financial results are for the three and six months ended June 30, 2010, respectively, compared to the same period one year earlier.

Revenue was $2.1 million compared to $987,000 for the second quarter and $2.8 million, compared to $1.9 million for the first half. The company’s quarterly revenue grew from the first quarter of 2010 and year-over-year as higher volumes of PicoP-based products were shipped to customers.

Backlog was $20.1 million at June 30, 2010 compared to $854,000 at June 30, 2009. The backlog is composed almost exclusively of orders for the company’s PicoP embedded engine and its SHOWWX laser pico projector.

Operating loss was $11.1 million compared to $9.5 million for the quarter, and $20.6 million compared to $18.6 million for the first half. The increased operating loss was due to higher operating costs attributable to commercialization of the SHOWWX product.

Net loss for the quarter was $11.1 million, or $0.12 per share compared to $10.4 million, or $0.15 per share. Net loss for the six months was $20.2 million, or $0.23 per share compared to $19.3 million, or $0.28 per share.

Net cash used in operating activities for the six months was $22.3 million, compared to $16.3 million. The increase was attributable to a higher net loss and an increase in working capital requirements. The increase in working capital requirements reflected a combination of increased inventory of raw materials and subassemblies with long lead times as the company prepares to ship higher product volumes in the second half of the year to meet customer delivery requirements, and a higher accounts receivable balance due to the timing of product shipments during the quarter.

The company ended the quarter with $22.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and investment securities.

Management will discuss the company’s operating and financial results and current business operations in more detail during its conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT today.

Continues…

*****

Here’s the link to the full Press Release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Announces-Second-bw-2632688220.html?x=0&.v=1

Here’re some observations from the earnings report and the subsequent CC later in the evening…

Operating Results Observation:
• Improved production and supply chain capabilities resulted in a more stable and predictable flow of finished product in the second quarter. Return rates on the SHOWwx are now averaging 2.5%... well below the industry norms.

• Continue to see an increase in the synthetic Green Laser supply and smooth conversion of raw materials into finished goods.

• Strengthening of capacity in the second half of 2010 to meet strong customer demand.

• Backlog grew to a record $20.1 million and includes a $3.4 million follow-on order from the initial OEM for embedded PDEs customer.

• The demand for PicoP-based products remains strong from both existing and new customers.

• Capacity increase during the second quarter allowed Microvision to increase their global distribution points and they continue to qualify additional distribution partners.

• Customer response to the SHOWwx™ laser pico projector has been very positive.

• Microvision has received a very enthusiastic response to the high resolution, brighter images from the new 15-lumen, 720p HD-ready PicoP prototype.

The high end media product is expected to be released for the 2010 Christmas holiday shopping season and the follow-up order form this customer sort of confirms what CEO Tokman had said at the 1st Qtr CC.

• It appears Microvision sold about 5,000 SHOWwx… to arrive at the $2 million in product sales revenue.

• Green Laser Diodes are on the way. In the meantime, if done right, the synthetic Green Lasers have an embedded play… for the next 4-5 years. Here’s what CEO Tokman said in The Displayground Blog post…

“We have already begun to see availability of the first generation synthetic lasers increase. The next generation synthetic green lasers are expected to be more efficient and less expensive than their first generation cousins. We also anticipate that the direct green lasers targeted for introduction in the second half of next year may not reach desired performance and cost targets immediately. For these reasons, we believe that synthetic lasers could continue to remain a competitive alternative to direct green lasers for at least the first 4-5 years after diodes are introduced.”

• If a respectable customer places a large order, Microvision would certainly discuss with the synthetic Green Laser suppliers the possibility of increasing production.

Here’s my take on this subject…

Corning and Osram have a limited manufacturing capacity that’s capable of handling the currently forecasted product introduction volumes. However, with sufficient investment, they could expand the manufacturing capacity. This would represent up front capital cost and Microvision can't do it by itself.

Let me put it bluntly…

Assuming "Sony or Apple" places an order for 1,000,000 units spread over a year and deliverable starting say mid 2011… then Corning and Osram could invest into expanding their synthetic GL manufacturing capacity and provide the necessary product. The reason Tokman indicated a "respectable customer" is because they would be the ones to deal with the GL suppliers and guarantee the payment for this capacity increase. Having "Sony or Apple" as a customer pretty much guarantees that the order will not be cancelled just for the fun of it. I'm sure they already know the price point where it is worth upgrading manufacturing capacity… either for a large order from a "respectable customer" or a lot of small orders where the expected rate of default would still ensure a profit for the GL manufacturers.

• Microvision expects 5-7 green laser suppliers in 2011.

Financial Results Observation:
• Revenues for the 2nd Qtr were $2.1 million compared to $987,000 for the second quarter of 2009… and the growth on the year-over-year basis was from higher volumes of PicoP-based products that were actually shipped to customers.

For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade in March 2010, the Microvision management team was awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales.

With that in mind, and taking all the plausible scenarios into consideration, I was looking at $1,900,000 to $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010.

As I said before; anything less than $1,900,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of poor sales… that are not necessarily held back by green laser availability. Current events and management changes taking place at Microvision pointed more to this revenue number than anything higher. With product revenues for the 2nd Qtr coming-in at $2 million and the backlog increased to $20.1 million… I’m not sure what to make of it and that is frustrating.

• Backlog was $20.1 million at June 30, 2010.

• The backlog is composed almost exclusively of orders for the PicoP embedded engine and its SHOWwx laser pico projector.

• Operating loss was $11.1 million for the 2nd Qtr.

• The increased operating loss was due to higher operating costs attributable to commercialization of the SHOWwx product.

• Net loss for the quarter was $11.1 million, or $0.12 per share compared to $10.4 million, or $0.15 per share.

• The increase in net loss was attributable to a higher net loss and an increase in working capital requirements. The increase in working capital is reflected by a combination of increased inventory of raw materials and subassemblies with long lead times─ as the company prepares to ship higher product volumes in the second half of the year, and a higher accounts receivable balance─ due to the timing of product shipments during the 2nd quarter.

• From the 2nd Qtr Income Statement; the Product Revenue was $2,015,000 with Cost of Product Revenue being $3,337,000. The costs to produce accessory pico projector units during the three months ended June 30, 2010 were substantially higher than product revenue. Cost of product revenue includes the direct and allocated indirect cost of manufacturing products sold to customers. Direct costs include labor, materials and other costs incurred directly in the manufacture of these products. Indirect costs include labor and other costs associated with operating the manufacturing capabilities and capacity.

• During the three months ended June 30, 2010, cost of product revenue included a lower of cost or market adjustment of $701,000 for inventory in stock at the end of the quarter.

• The overhead cost included in the cost of product revenue consists of the costs of procuring, inspecting and storing material, and facility and depreciation costs; and is allocated to inventory, cost of product revenue, cost of contract revenue, and research and development expense based on the level of effort supporting production or research and development activities.

• The cost of product revenue as a percentage of product revenue can fluctuate significantly from period to period, depending on the product mix and volume and the level of overhead expense.

• The company ended the 2nd Qtr with $22.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and investment securities.

My main issue with this Financial Report is NOT so much about hitting the low end of Product Revenues… but it is the negative profit margins that are frustrating.

Microvision used lots of fancy words to simply explain the inventory markdowns leading to negative profit margins… meaning that every time Microvision sells a product, it takes a small loss. Since there is no corporate guidance, and investor questions on this issue were brushed aside, this “negative margins” issue has been exploited by the opportunistic and unscrupulous short traders in relentlessly driving down the price of Microvision stock over the last few weeks… and that is very frustrating.

Continues with the next post…

Microvision: Investors Are Just Frustrated

Anant Goel

Microvision: New Product Development Using IPM and PDE

2010-07-30T15:44:00.004-04:00

On several occasions, Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, has stated that he doesn’t want the company to be just a commodity supplier of IPMs [Integrated Photonic Modules] and PDEs [PicoP Display Engines] to global consumer electronic firms. He wants to position the company as an applications and value –add powerhouse with a broad array of high margin products.

Here’s my take on the future at Microvision…

There are three areas that I would like to focus on…

1. SHOWwx is just the beginning of things to come

2. Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” vs. “Commodity” Technology

3. More Purchase Order to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production.

SHOWwx Just the Beginning of Things to Come:
On March 24th, Microvision started selling its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx to the US market… selling them directly; from its on-line web store for a handsome profit. When you sell directly; your margins are always better because of the savings in middleman’s commission. By the next earnings conference call; we should find out for sure what sales revenues and profit margins are from sale of SHOWwx.

At the 2010 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Microvision CEO confirmed the receipt of purchase orders worth $16.7 million dollars for SHOWwx and the ultra miniature PDE… and that is the part that confirms my view that SHOWwx and the $16.7 million in purchase orders is the just the beginning of things to come.

http://www.slideshare.net/lautiffany/microvision-asm-2010-highlights
[Note: Please review slide 21]

Here’s why…

Potential markets for laser based PicoP Display Engine technology is not only huge… but it is also a high margin market opportunity.

If you were to consider the high-end Media Player market alone… the possibilities are enormous…

Low Power Front Projection Media Players for the Third World Countries:

Think about 2.5 billion people in India and China... as they represent the potential buyers of a low power front projection portable TV/Media Player that offers a large screen [60'' to 100''] high definition always in focus vivid and bright color viewing experience. Extremely low ENERGY consumption [like 10 watts or less] and portability is the key market demand factor here. Energy will become more and more scarce and expensive by leaps and bounds…whereas the portability allows for sharing of resources among friends and family.

Low Power Front Projection Media Player for the Master Bedroom:

Think about a billion bedrooms globally that could use a ceiling projector... for adding another dimension to the various ways of media consumption for information and entertainment. We have desired the bedroom viewing of television for ever, so it seems, and some of us may have installed televisions in the bedroom. However, now it is possible to add, by the millions, a low power media player with built-in PicoP projector in our bedrooms… that offers short throw ratio, wide screen, high definition, bright and vivid color, and always in focus viewing experience. Media player/projector runs on low power batteries... so no risk of electrocuting yourself. No significant heat... so you won't burn yourself. No heavy duty TV to install on the bedroom wall.

Low Power Portable Projection Media Player for Every Bedroom in the House:

All you need is one portable Media Player with built-in PicoP projector… that gets moved around from room to room when and where it’s needed. It certainly is a cheaper alternative than buying a TV for each room of the house. This portable Media Player can also be the one you pack with your bags… when you are on the go.

Market Size for Portable Media Players with built-in PicoP Projectors is huge… like in billions world-wide. The most recent orders for $16.7 million from the Consumer Electronic companies are just the beginning of what’s to come... and not the end.

Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” vs. “Commodity” Technology:
Some have questioned the laser PicoP as “core” [like CPUs from Intel] vs. “commodity” technology [like cell phone touch screen and cameras].

My take on the subject is as follows...

The IPMs and PDEs [the generic version] are an enabling technology and therefore a commodity... no question about that.

However, laser PicoP is a core technology and that's how it is being positioned by Microvision. Pico technology from TI or 3M will not create [or capture] as large a market as laser PicoP would... due to inherent image quality and differenciating functionality [like always-in-focus] that is only possible due to lasers being used as the light source.

Microvision laser PicoP technology will capture its fair share of the captive markets but it would go-on-further and create markets that are only possible because of laser PicoP. And that's not the commodity markets by any means. Microvision recognizes that right from the beginning; and therefore is positioning the PicoP Display Engines accordingly… by using the “Image by PicoP” insignia on every thing related to its technology.

There will be others with laser pico technology down the road... and that's why Microvision is churning out these patents by the hundreds… to protect its IP turf. Also, the "Image by PicoP" is part of this marketing strategy that positions Microvision PicoP technology as a "core" and not "commodity" right from day one. From what I have seen, and there is plenty of evidence for you to see as well, Microvision is charging a premium price for its PicoP technology. Just look at SHOWwx Commercial Edition currently for sale at $549.

I hope you can appreciate the difference... because it’s worth billions of dollars when it is executed with knowledge, passion, and gumption

Currently, there are several products in development at Microvision… and two of the most visible ones are…

Video and Console Gaming:

Microvision’s wireless 720p laser pico projector-based game controller prototype is being developed in collaboration with Intel. Over the last year, we have heard so much about the “PicoP First-Person Shooter Gaming Gun Prototype” that addresses the multi-billion dollar gaming market.

http://www.microvision.com/displayground/?p=1729

Laser Imaging and Laser Camera:

Microvision and Johnson & Johnson worked on this application for years… going back a few years ago.

Why has nothing ever come of this technology? J&J Ethicon has been working on an endoscope design for years with a number of patents that were awarded along the way. Nothing has ever come of this, I suppose, because they have been waiting on a RGB laser engine like the Microvision PDEs? And now that we have green lasers available, and the supply chain is ramping-up quickly, can we finally expect to see an endoscope or laser camera become reality?

Until recently, the Company was focused on bringing the SHOWwx to market and every thing else was on the back burner. Now that we have had a commercial launch of SHOWwx; and green laser technology and supply has improved, I see a renewed interest in the Laser Imaging and Laser Camera applications of Microvision IPM [photonic modules] and PDE [display engines]. Laser Imaging and Laser Camera is a multi-billion dollar market... and is a captive market for a cost effective innovative solution like what Microvision offers.

The following information is based on an article by a Microvision patent expert [Chris Wiklof, Director of patents from 2000-2006] that explains the Microvision’s Laser Camera concept. Richard Rutkowski, former CEO of Microvision, was a young hippie when this article was published, that's how old it is. There were two "camera" applications that he loved to talk about: confocal cameras and endoscopes, the latter got a lot of attention when Johnson & Johnson's Ethicon Endo division signed a contract with Microvision, back in 2005.
http://sis.windhover.com/buy/abstract.php?id=200520002&utm_source=company

Here’s the edited version of information on Microvision Laser Camera from the "past era of days gone by"…

Microvision has developed an innovative imaging platform that uses scanned beams of light and is in effect a versatile “laser camera.” Leveraging technology originally developed for its scanned-beam displays, like the laser projector SHOWwx, Microvision has developed a scanned-beam imaging [such as in laser endoscopes] design that meets demanding size constraints (5-mm total diameter) while also delivering good resolution (currently 720p HD). While recent developments have centered on biological and medical applications, the technology represents a unique and extensible imaging architecture that has applicability across a broad range of medical and non-medical markets, including barcode scanning, machine vision, microscopy, and scientific imaging.

In a conventional digital camera, a field of view is flood illuminated. A small portion of the illumination power impinges upon any particular spot. The rays that impinge upon the spot can be absorbed, transmitted, reflected, or scattered. A very small portion of the light scattered from the spot is imaged through a lens and aperture to a conjugate light-sensor element, where the photons are converted to electrons. To form an image, the process is repeated in parallel, with a small portion of light from each spot simultaneously imaged onto each of a typically large array of corresponding light sensors.

Compared to a conventional digital camera; a laser camera works in reverse. A laser beam illuminates a single spot while a large-numerical-aperture non-imaging detector receives the scattered light energy and converts it to an electrical signal. Because all the illumination energy falls on the particular spot of interest, there is no need to form a conjugate image plane and no need to exclude light from elsewhere in the field of view with a lens and aperture. To form an image, the process is repeated sequentially, moving the beam to illuminate the next spot and the scattered energy is again measured.

Comparing the two technologies, one can see that the direction of light propagation is reversed. Whereas the resolution-determining step in a conventional digital camera involves selectively receiving light energy from a spot, the resolution-determining step in a laser camera involves selectively illuminating a spot. The reversal of the rays does not affect the final image; for example, a spot that looks semitransparent and pinkish to a conventional digital camera looks semitransparent and pinkish to a laser camera.

Whereas conventional digital photography places a technology burden on the CCD or CMOS sensor array, laser photography requires a high-performance beam scanner. The beam scanner must be able to scan at high frequency to provide a high frame rate. Microvision currently uses proprietary single-crystal bulk-micro-machined silicon Micro Electro Mechanical System (MEMS) scanner technology developed for its scanned-beam pico projector.

Here’s the link to information on CCD and CMOS senor array used in digital cameras:

http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/cameras-photography/digital/question362.htm

Unique Attributes of Laser Camera:

A laser camera is intrinsically self-illuminating, which means that a laser camera cannot capture daylight images taken at long distances. Instead, a laser camera is a strong candidate to capture images at moderate to short distances, and especially high-magnification images. While daylight does not interfere with a laser camera’s operation─ the beam scan rate is so high that the processor simply ignores DC light levels and rejects noise from artificial illumination─ it also does not help it. The image captured by the laser camera is one produced by the laser camera’s scanned beam. Thus, a laser camera will not capture the appearance of speckled sunlight transmitted through leaves. Instead, the laser camera will capture the appearance of a leaf as viewed from the perspective of the light source.

Though not suitable for general-purpose, like ambient-light photography, a laser camera has many attributes that are valuable to a range of medical, commercial and scientific applications.

• No motion blur: Because the dwell time that the beam remains on any given spot is very short (about 20 ns); there is virtually no motion blur evident in any one pixel for most types of images. Thus, it is possible to capture fast moving objects without requiring complex and bulky strobe illumination. Movement in the image that occurs during the frame time will be expressed as a skewing of the image, an artifact that can be removed during image processing.

• Controlled specular reflection: Because the illumination source is a point, the amount of specular reflection [cause of glare] in the image can be reduced significantly. For example, with a ring illuminator typically used for close-up conventional photography; many subjects exhibit a white halo that washes out important details. With a laser camera, even though the detector occupies a relatively large area, glare is virtually nonexistent.

• Small and self-contained laser camera with illumination: Whereas a conventional sensor array must occupy an area large enough to fit its pixels, a laser camera only requires a small sensor area and a scanning mirror. A scanning laser endoscope [for example] capable of 720p resolution is only 5 mm in diameter. Furthermore, because a laser camera is self-illuminating, all the necessary components can be placed in a single package, thus requiring no field engineering to select, install, and adjust a light source. Such a small and self-contained package is useful for many medical, scientific, and industrial applications.

• Long range/large depth of field: Because there is virtually no light lost from the illumination beam, a laser camera has greater range than the illumination range of a conventional digital camera. Similarly, conventional systems using artificial illumination at long range are typically operated with a relatively large aperture to maximize light collection, resulting in reduced depth of field. Conversely, a laser camera detector does not image the returned light and there is no need for an aperture. The laser illumination beam of a laser camera can be substantially collimated across a wide range of applications such that focus stays constant with distance, resulting in significantly improved depth of field.

• Wavelength agility: If the passband of a conventional digital camera filter is narrowed, the amount of light reaching a detector is severely reduced, resulting in a low signal-to-noise ratio. Conversely, the laser illuminators typically used with a laser camera have a very narrow spectral width. This allows the system designer to select particular wavelengths with which to probe and image the field of view. Depending upon individual system architecture, it is possible to allow for a large number of imaging wavelengths, a property that lends the laser camera high specificity with respect to dye or pigment measurements. This may be especially useful in advanced medical and scientific techniques such as photodynamic therapy.

• Large color gamut: Because of the narrow spectral width of the illumination sources, a laser camera’s color sensitivity is placed closer to the perimeter of a C.I.E. chromaticity diagram than the wider band filters used by a conventional digital camera to separate colors. This results in a larger triangle (for an RGB, three-color system) within the color space, which results in the ability to capture greener greens, redder reds, and bluer blues… giving higher 200% NTSC rating to Microvision laser PDEs.

• Variable field of view: The laser camera’s field of view consists of the range of spots to which the scanner directs the illumination beam and is thus determined by the drive waveform delivered to the scanner. Thus, lossless electronic zoom and variable aspect ratio may be achieved by dynamic modification of the scanner drive.

• High magnification: A laser camera’s magnification can be quite high, depending upon beam shape. For example, the laser-beam waist can be made quite small and the scan angle reduced to produce a high-magnification image of a small field of view. By placing a beam splitter between the light-beam source and the scan mirror, and picking off a return image, the laser camera can be easily configured as a tiny confocal microscope and deliver magnification sufficient to resolve embedded objects a few hundred nanometers in diameter or map the surface profile of an integrated circuit.

Laser Camera ─ the New Frontier

The laser-camera technology offers many new performance capabilities and benefits by exploiting a fundamentally new architecture for capturing images. These capabilities, taken individually or in combination, are expected to open a new design frontier for imaging systems with requirements that cannot be cost-effectively met by conventional integrated matrix imagers… in this multi-billion dollar market.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Employees Talk

2010-07-24T14:46:00.004-04:00

When you work for a cutting edge technology company like Microvision, there are bound to be comments from employees that are good [called pros] and bad [called the cons].

I’ll skip the “pros” because they tend to be mostly glowing and biased… because if the employee still works there then it must be good; otherwise “what the heck are you doing there in the first place”.

However, when it comes to “cons”, they really tell a lot about the company and how it operates internally. One word of caution nonetheless when reading the “cons”… you have to extrapolate the negative because most of the time the employees talking to you are reluctant to say bluntly what’s on their mind for the sake of keeping the job they have at Microvision.

With that in mind, here are some Microvision employee comments…

Microvision Engineer in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
“Microvision - when you work here, you make a difference.”
4/28/2009

Cons:
As a small company, some resources are not available. Everyone, all the time, is stretching to get done what needs to be done. There is a fairly constant feeling of being overloaded.

Advice to Senior Management:
Try to cut back on the project list.

Microvision Engineer in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
“Working for Microvision”
7/19/2010

Cons:
Too much work, extra time not compensated. Poor communications among teams. Busy all year round, no taking it easy time. Lots of deadlines.

Advice to Senior Management:
More free time, less tightly bound schedules; more communication would really make Microvision a good place to work for everyday.

Microvision Not Telling As We Run So Thin A Job Title Would Give It Away. in Redmond, WA: (Current Employee)
6/17/2008

Cons:
Some of the downsides to working at Microvision is that Senior Management is not very good at communicating down to the regular employees. It's a bit embarrassing having a relative call me about a press release that I hadn't heard because we don't say anything internally. I think it was almost two months before they announced a huge sale of bar code scanners to the rest of the company. When all you are selling is one product at the moment those kinds of wins help pick people up!

One other big downside is that much of the company needs to switch their thinking from how they were before. I've never worked at a place that actually sold something that had so many barriers in place to finishing a sale, so many signatures are needed and physical pieces of paper need to go places, it's very inefficient. There are definite growing pains here as the company goes from an R & D house to a company that actually sells consumer products.

One final downside is that we are running very lean on people so often times you have to do things that are completely outside of your scope. While this is good at times, sometimes it feels like you get setup for failure.

Advice to Senior Management:
I would urge Senior Management to celebrate the wins when they happen. Also if there's news going out, even if it's "non news" let the rest of the company know so we don't look stupid when people ask us about it.

In conclusion, here’s the link just to make sure you don’t think I made-up this crap…
http://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Microvision-Reviews-E6316.htm

Advise to Microvision investors…

“Don’t get too comfortable… keep an eye open while taking the snooze”.

Anant Goel

Microvision: To Report 2nd Qtr Earnings on August 5th

2010-07-24T13:08:00.002-04:00

Based on past history and unconfirmed reports, Microvision 2nd Qtr earning conference call is currently scheduled for August 5th.

Here’s the link to unconfirmed report on earnings conference call…
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/mvis_microvision-inc-mvis-corporate-event-announcement-notice-1051076.html

This 2nd Qtr earnings report, in my opinion, would be the most significant milestone in the history of Microvision because…

“… after 14 years of R&D, and having spent over $350 million dollars, the company will finally be in an enviable position to report revenues from product sales for an entire Qtr… and based on what’s reported, the entire financial future of this company─ and its stockholders, may take shape for the foreseeable future.”

The most important number to watch would be the “recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr”.

That’s correct, the “recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010”.

Granted, the backorders; profit margins; patents & awards; contracts & agreements; and future product introductions do count, but then again who knows for sure what the future would bring, and if the delivery would be made at profitable margins in the near term.

However, what do count, at this stage of commercial product introduction, are the actual sales of SHOWwx laser pico projector to consumers… indicating current demand to be over or below the current available green lasers, and the actual sales of PEKs/PDEs to OEMs… indicating future interest in the second generation embedded IPMs.

Having said that, let’s take a look at some projections for 2nd Qtr product revenues…

First of all, let me warn you that it is not easy to model product revenues for a company like Microvision because…

“For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade in March 2010, the Microvision management team is awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales.”

With that in mind, and taking all the plausible scenarios into consideration, I’m looking at $1,900,000 to $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues for the 2nd Qtr 2010.

That’s the bottom line from my vantage point and I’ll spare you the details.

Now, here we go with the analysis…

• Anything less than $1,900,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of poor sales… that are not necessarily held back by green laser availability? Current events and management changes taking place at Microvision point more to this revenue number than anything higher.

• Anything more than $3,600,000 in recognized product revenues would be the sign of robust sales that leverage green laser availability to its fullest… and could have been better if more green lasers were available. The probability of this happening is low… but we can hope, can’t we?

These numbers are based on some complex modeling and are very subjective to one man’s opinion… in this case, it’s mine!

How the investors would react to this sort of news is anybody’s guess!

However, one thing is for sure…

Investors don’t like the lack of any significant news for extended periods of time and they react by selling [and short selling] the Microvision stock. Just in one week, a few weeks ago after the Annual Shareholders Meeting, the MVIS stock price dropped by 30% [down from $3.60 to $2.64]. This kind of price drop, it seems, has become a norm for Microvision stock after every Qtr earnings CC or the Annual Shareholders Meeting.

Lack of news; or any visible signs of product promotion, marketing, or sales does not build confidence in Microvision business model… and as a result, more and more investors [and supporters] abandon the MVIS stock every time there is carnage in its market price.

I don’t know if the Microvision corporate management realizes how important the MVIS investors are to the well being, survival, and future prosperity of their [our] company?

I didn’t think that I would ever say this; but after years of holding MVIS stock and taking my share of loses as the perpetual LONG.…

• Microvision stock has no backbone; and shows strength only when it receives attention from management lip service at times of needs for additional funding or before the quarterly earnings CC or the Annual Shareholders Meetings.

• MVIS stock has, time and again, proven that it is the Trader’s and professional Short’s trading panacea to making money while the Longs have been the perpetual losers.

To make the long story short, here’s what I would recommend to my friends, family, or anyone who chooses to preserve their investment capital rather than squander it on this perpetual dream machine…

“Buy low and sell high… and trade… trade… trade”

Anant Goel

Microvision: Open Letter to Microvision CEO Alex Tokman

2010-07-02T13:15:00.004-04:00

For a company that launched laser based SHOWwx in September 2009, and announced the availability of the hottest consumer electronic product of this decade, your management team is awfully quiet on all fronts of news with no visible signs of product promotions, marketing or sales. Granted, the backorders and future product introductions do count; but then again who knows for sure what the future would bring, and if the delivery would be made at profitable terms.

Market does not like the lack of any significant news for extended periods and reacts by selling [and short selling] the Microvision stock. Just over the last one week, the stock price has dropped by 30% [down from $3.60 to $2.64]. This kind of price drop, it seems, has become a norm for Microvision stock after every Qtr earnings CC or the Annual Share Holders meeting.

Lack of news; or lack of any visible signs of product promotion, marketing, or sales does not build confidence in Microvision business model… and as a result, more and more investors [and supporters] abandon the MVIS stock every time there is carnage in its market price.

I don’t know if you realize how important the Microvision investors are to the well being, survival, and future prosperity of your [our] company?

Think about this…

At this early stage of the game, your first wave of prospective customers will be the Microvision investors [their family & friends], employees, vendors, hot leads from trade shows, and a few live ones from the ROV customer base. That’s your “hot” prospective customer base that you can easily tap for “placing the sensors in the ground”.

There are over 1,000 investors of MVIS stock that track the company’s news like a hawk on a daily basis. Each one of us [investors] has at least 200 people in our center of influence. If you do the math and add-up all the numbers you get over 200,000 people that would love to provide comments [and feed back] and be part of this paradigm changing technology at this early stage.

President-elect Obama used the Internet to reach out to millions [and continues to do so to this day] in a very short period of time and raised over $1billion in donations for his Presidential election. If Obama can evangelize his “Change We Need” slogan, then why can’t Microvision do the same with its “PicoP Green Machine” slogan? Let’s face it… sooner or later Microvision will have a HD PicoP Projector/TV that could provide large screen HDTV experience to a billion people in energy starved China and India. In the U.S. and Europe, it could easily replace millions of power hungry LCD/Plasma TVs in every room.

Investors need more frequent news on product developments; and also need to see visible signs of activity in promotions, marketing and sales… no matter how small. It keeps us interested and engaged. Share more information with us [Microvision investors] and make us part of your viral marketing strategy. It costs you nothing and results could be 200,000 times better than what an expensive team of executives with fancy titles would bring to the table.

For a moment think Apple…
To succeed like Apple, companies need to understand more deeply the consumer they are targeting. Apple recognizes that it can't have everyone as its customer. It is willing to alienate some segments by appealing to a strong core of people that sociologists refer to as the Cultural Creatives. These are the people who wait in line overnight for the latest iPod, iPhone, or the iPad. Focusing on the Cultural Creatives in turn attracts followers who might not otherwise trust the brand.

[The concept is presented in the book The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People Are Changing the World (2000), where the authors claim to have found that 50 million adult Americans who can now be identified as belonging to this group. They estimated that there were an additional 80 to 90 million Cultural Creatives in Europe as of 2000.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Creatives

Observe the next 10 people you see on the street with an iPod and ask your self how many of them represent the Cultural Creatives featured in Apple's advertising.

One, may be two?

Address your core audience… and the rest will follow. That's how you sell 10 million iPods in one quarter.

In the hands of an artful company like Apple, design is the vehicle for driving meaningful, relevant experiences that are authentic to the brand. It's not about paring product lines or making cool stuff. Done right, design can add value to the bottom line and the brand. However, design done right goes beyond the appearance and behavior of the object itself. It takes the entire product ecosystem into consideration. Design done right sees technology as an enabler, not just the solution.

Apple creates holistic experiences that inspire customers, strategic partners like accessory manufacturers, and content providers to build up the platform. Apple understands: “It's not about market share. It's about mind share.”

There are two ways to reach this group of prospective Microvision customers... the first is by more frequent e-mails… and the second is more organized, like the formation of “PicoP Green Machine User’s Group”. With that as a means to reach out and touch, you could hold the interest and engage your core Cultural Creatives… in exchange for latest news or sneak-peak at the technology that could save the Planet Earth.

You know what I mean? You get the idea!

It doesn’t cost you anything and it can build your e-mail list very quickly. Think “Obama” every time you want to reach out and touch millions in a hurry.

The foresight to go live with your Blog “The Diaplayground” was an excellent idea in this internet driven world… and the timing could not be any better. Perfect stroke of genius!

However, there is total lack of response to visitor posts at your Blog site… and that is the second issue.

I expect customers, investors, vendors and competitors to dominate the ranks of visitors that lurk The Displayground.

As investors, we are a fickle bunch and our Blog posts tend to be skewed towards topics that effect our financial investment in Microvision. We tend to be long term investors but the current volatility can be devastating… and as such, we doubt our good judgment from time to time. Sometimes our questions may be direct, inquiring, frustrating, out-of-line, etc. Some of us, at times, can’t say what we mean or mean what we say. However, we mean no disrespect, malice or harm. Now, with your corporate governance legal frame work in place, your team may or may not respond to [or even publish] our comments from time to time. We would understand your position in such a situation. However, there are ways to answer a comment, without violating legal rules and regulations, and still maintain the flow of dialog with the Blog participant.

I guess it all goes back to: “the beginning of openness and sharing of the truth with integrity and trust.”

Openness and sharing truth with integrity are important to investors… both large and small.

Anant Goel

PS: "Strive for simplicity, innovation, human-centered interaction, visual interest, and efficiency." This is the calling card for all businesses for the future.

Microvision: Unveils Increased Brightness, 720p HD Ready Laser Pico Projector

2010-06-26T17:51:00.002-04:00

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday May 24, 2010, 6:31 am EDT

REDMOND, Wa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products announced today that it plans to demonstrate a 720p HD ready laser pico projector at The Society For Information Display annual conference, May 25 – 27, at the Washington State Convention Center in Seattle, Washington.

The 720p prototype pico projector outputs 15 lumens of brightness while still maintaining its compact, low profile form factor, very similar to Microvision’s current WVGA product. The company plans a commercial product version of a 720p HD PicoP display engine in the second half of 2011.

The new 720p, higher brightness prototype highlights the capability of PicoP® technology to support new performance levels while still maintaining the compelling attributes of the existing PicoP platform, including:

• Infinite focus;
• Wide throw angle that offers an immersive visual experience;
• Superior brightness uniformity;
• High optical efficiency resulting in low power requirements;
• 5000:1 contrast ratio; and
• Vivid colors of up to 200% greater than standard broadcast television

“Microvision’s growing success is rooted in our ability to anticipate market needs and proactively innovate and push the limits of our technology to address them,” stated Alexander Tokman, president and CEO. “On behalf of our entire design team, I’m extremely proud to introduce the world’s first 720p laser pico projector demonstrator that fits in the palm of your hand.”

Mr. Tokman added: “Our customers are looking for best-in-class pico projection solutions and we believe that with our demonstrated ability to advance both resolution and brightness on our core PicoP platform, Microvision will continue to be recognized as the premier provider of customer focused solutions in this exciting new product category.”

In addition to the 720p demonstrator, Microvision also plans to showcase the following developer tools, product and application demonstrations at SID in Booth 1401:

Continues…

*****

Here’s the link to the Press Release…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Unveils-Increased-bw-20446400.html?x=0&.v=1

The company demonstratd the 720p HD laser Pico Projector at SID Conference. In addition to that, Microvision showcased portable gaming, automotive and wearable display applications that were enabled by its current PicoP Display Engine technology.

The commercial opportunities presented by the 720p PicoP projector at 15 lumens of brightness; while still maintaining its compact, low profile form factor, is huge. The current WVGA product SHOWwx ─ at 848x480 resolution and 10 lumen brightness─ has awed the early adopters. The next generation products─ using 720p resolution and 15 lumen brightness PicoP Display Engines─ will surely delight the masses when introduced in the second half of 2011.

To fully appreciate the implications of going to 720p resolution at 15 lumens brightness in the next generation products; you have to own and use the current first generation SHOWwx… to be first amazed and awed.

To further appreciate the impact and value of 720p resolution at 15 lumen brightness; let’s review the history of broadcast to put the image resolution in proper perspective…

Back in the technological dark ages of the late 20th Century, NTSC television signals were broadcast in a resolution now called 480i… in the U.S., while the rest of the world had adopted differing standards.

"480" signifies the number of horizontal lines that make up a single frame of video. The "i" stands for "interlaced," which is a system that delivers a frame of video in two fields. Interlacing was adopted back in the 1950s to overcome limited transmission bandwidth. If you can remember that far back, all TV was broadcast over antennas.

Interlacing has never been a great solution because it does not offer the best image quality. In a movie theater, film is presented one full frame at a time, which is called progressive, or simply “p”.

Until high definition came on the scene, 480i─ now often labeled standard definition or SD─ was the way that every TV set in the U.S. worked. We lived with these NTSC standards for almost fifty years. As technology and marketing marched on, researchers, manufacturers and broadcasters took a two-pronged approach to producing a better quality video image.

First, they increased the resolution of the video signal and the TVs receiving them. Though there are many different choices in the ATSC standard, the two common resolutions are called 720 and 1080. Again, resolution is denoted by the horizontal lines in a frame. Instead of the old 480, these new standards produce 720 or 1080 horizontal lines. Actually, resolution is measured in both directions, vertically and horizontally. So, you may see them listed as 1280 x 720 and 1920 x 1080. If you do the math, these are both 16 x 9 formats.

[Note: ATSC is a set of standards developed by the Advanced Television Systems Committee for digital television transmission. ATSC replaced much of the analog NTSC television system in the United States on June 12, 2009 and will replace NTSC by August 31, 2011 in Canada.]

The simple formula is more lines of resolution = a higher quality (or we can call it a higher definition) image. Of course, nothing is simple in these HD days. The second factor in improving image quality is shifting the signal to a progressive format. Broadcasters have split on the idea of transmitting video progressively. Those who do, use the 720p format. Those who don't, opt for 1080i. Video experts, Joe Kane among many others, believe that progressive can out trump video resolution to the extent they prefer 720p over 1080i.

Of course, in the last few years, manufacturers are beginning to grace us with 1080p HDTVs. Which brings us back to the original question? If you have been following along with our HD calculus, the answer seems pretty obvious: “p” is better than “i”, and 1080 is higher than 720. No argument there… just give me the 1080p.

Well, here's the rub…

In the United States, 1080p over the air broadcasts still do not exist as of 2010; and all major networks use either 720p60 or 1080i60 encoded with MPEG-2. Satellite service providers though have many channels that utilize the 1080p/24-30 format… for example Direc TV, XstreamHD, and Dish Network.

If you mostly watch network television, and that includes ESPN HD and the premium channels like HBO HD, the best you will receive is 720p or 1080i.

Now, if your tastes run to high definition DVDs, then you will have better luck finding 1080p material in the stores. You may even see a lot of classic movies reissued in 1080p format now that the HD DVD / Blu-ray format war has been settled… with Blu ray taking the honors.

[All Blu-ray Disc and the now defunct HD DVD are able to hold 1080p HD content such as movies. Most movies released on Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD can produce a full 1080p High Defiition picture when the player is connected to a 1080p HDTV with an HDMI cable. However, the Blu-ray Disc video specification only allows encoding of up to 1080p24 signal.]

One more thing you should be aware of; and that is the native resolution. Almost every new HDTV will advertise that it handles 1080p, but that does not mean that its native resolution is 1080p. A 720p TV/monitor [or projector] can display 1080p sources. They just have to downscale the image.

Now if you think about it, content is available in a range of formats, 480i, 720p, 1080i, and 1080p. Your HDTV or HD projector can handle all of them through technical tricks of up-scaling or down-scaling and interlacing or de-interlacing. Not to mention how well it translates native 24 frames per second films to 30 frames per second video.

The theory of course is that a 1080p native resolution TV [or projector] will handle 1080p sources more cleanly than other lower native resolution TVs. But if the TVs [or projectors] are doing their job well, most non-hypercritical viewers will not be able to tell the difference between a 720p and a 1080p TV when watching 1080p programs.

The real test may, however, be how well a 1080p TV handles the more common lower resolution material?

One more consideration, 1080p is currently the leading edge technology… but for how long?

If you are buying an HDTV in the next few months, then supposedly purchasing a 1080p TV should future proof you for a little while!

But technology is on a roll, which feeds marketing's insatiable appetite for new products.

Expect your state of the art 1080p HDTV to be old news in the next year or two. True HD will be replaced by too good to be true Full HD… and that will morph into wallet busting eye popping Ultra HD.

You get my drift, yes?

In a year or so, I expect to hear Microvision coming out with 1080p resolution at 28 lumen brightness PicoP Display Engine; to support new performance levels while still maintaining the compelling attributes of the existing PicoP platform.

It is then, that I expect the 1080p resolution and 28 lumens bright PicoP Display Engines to be at the heart of front end media projectors; and selling for a few hundred dollars to give the energy guzzling 1080p HDTVs the run for their money… or should I say: “run for their life”.

Anant Goel
[Long List of Credits]

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Pico Projector Consumer is Well and Alive

2010-06-23T19:02:00.001-04:00

Economists and investors cheered the 2nd Qtr 2010 earnings results from Apple Inc. (AAPL), saying it was a sign that the global consumer is alive and well. The company sold a mind boggling 2.94 million Mac PCs, 10.89 million iPods, and close to 8.75 million iPhones in a three-month time span. And these numbers do not include the 3 million iPads sold since April.

First, here’re the Apple numbers for the 2nd Qtr 2010…

• Total sales: $13.5 billion, up 48.6% year over year
• Earnings: $3.33 per share. up 86%
• Profit: $3.07 billion, up 89.5%
• Mac sales: 2.94 million units, up 33%
• iPhone sales: 8.75 million units, up 131%
• iPod sales: 10.89 million units, down 1%
• iPod touch sales: up 66%; iPod revenue up 12%
• Apple store visitors: 47 million in 286 retail outlets, up 20%
• Gross margin: 41.7%, up from 39.9% last year
• Cash and marketable securities: $41.7 billion, up $1.9 billion since December
• Guidance for the third fiscal quarter: revenue between $13 and $13.4 billion, EPS between $2.28 and $2.39, gross margin 36%

Wow, that doesn’t sound like a recession. But is that really good news or is there something unnerving about all that spending in this harsh recession that we should be concerned about?

Could it be that people spent money in a haphazard manner? Or they spent money [just to keep-up with the Jones] when they really should have been saving?

Either way, I expect the laser based PicoP Projector to follow the same buying pattern as the iPods, iPhones, and iPads.

[Note: Just to be sure we are on the same page; let me qualify that statement with a caveat… it’s the first second half of 2011 that I’m talking about; when the green lasers have become plentiful and their price has come down significantly from the current levels.]

Here’s a story [that I read somewhere] to explain why…

“In the 1970s, Harlem was one of the poorest neighborhoods in the nation, but it was a money making machine for people selling expensive clothes, sneakers, and cars. Before it opened, there was much concern that a McDonald’s in the hood would be an abject failure.

As it turns out, the first McDonald’s in Harlem became the number one selling restaurant for the chain in the entire world for years. Back then, there were street vendors who lived in the community and the money they made circulated among the people that earned it. However, for the most part it was like there was a giant vacuum cleaning hose sucking up all disposable, and not-so-disposable, money out of the hood.

Nothing was more peculiar than the need to own “Air Jordan” sneakers. Mothers that scrubbed floors for minimum wage had to drop $200 to make sure their children fit-in and were part of the hip crowd. Households that sustained themselves on welfare checks also felt the same pressure. Demand for these overpriced shoes never waned even after waves of violence, even murder, was being committed to own them. It was the ultimate status symbol, one that made you cool and one that also made you a potential candidate for the morgue. It was American consumerism at its best. It brought out what John Maynard Keynes called “animal spirits.” The desire to own these ultra expensive sneakers also brought out what sociologists might also brand “animal spirits”, too.

After fueling the growth of the world for decades, it is clear that the American consumer is now struggling. One lesson we’ve all learned over the years is that prosperity can be fleeting. In fact, in a blink of an eye it seems like all of our wealth vanished and somehow landed in China. It’s such a fascinating reversal of fortunes, but it underscores the notion of fiscal prudence. Those “Air Jordan” sneakers that were all the rage in Harlem were made by peasants in China whose annual income was so small they couldn’t afford to live [in Harlem] for one week. China isn’t the financial juggernaut it is because there are 1.3 billion people there; the cheap labor source of the world belies the notion of becoming wealthy. Their secret was saving. Saving money for years, living on the bare minimum, fixated on the future.

With that in mind, iPods, iPhones, and iPads are today’s “Air Jordan” sneakers… hip, stylish, and must have gadgets… but not a necessity.

Stuff We (don’t) Need but Must Have:

Ironically, the Pew Research Center released its latest survey on things that the public believes are necessities. The results are somewhat shocking. There were huge percentage decreases for clothes dryers, home air conditioning (maybe it will be higher in July than April), television sets, and microwaves. In fact, there were only a few items listed that more people believe are necessities now versus 2006. High speed internet access increased 2%, but only 31% said it was a necessity. Flat screen televisions increased the most, up 3%. Then, there were those iPods, again, increasing 1% to 4%. Like many surveys, much could be made of the results. On one hand, it could suggest less materialism.

But this list isn’t about chasing the Jones; rather it’s about basic stuff that is within reach of most Americans… like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. There is no doubt that income, or lack thereof, played a major role as respondents are certainly feeling the pinch. A whopping 57% said that they’ve bought less expensive brands or shopped more at discount stores… this is evident in the moves of stocks such as Family Dollar Store, 99 Cents Only Stores, and CitiTrends. Perhaps a silver lining is the 28% that said they’ve cut back on alcohol and cigarettes.

Here’s the link to Pew Research Center survey database…

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/395.pdf

There are so many other things people are doing to adjust to their current circumstances. The sharp decline in what people think they need, however, is remarkable. Maybe there is something else afoot in this story.

Still, there is another way to look at the results. In some ways I believe that people may be taking many things for granted… things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. I kind of lean that way, and it’s not just that we think an air conditioner is less important but some people think we don’t need more ships and jet fighters to protect us. Heck, this weekend we fired up the air conditioners in our house. If asked a week earlier I may have been inclined to say air conditioning wasn’t a necessity, but after a two hour bike ride in the blazing sun I felt like a walking volcano and at that moment the ice cube maker and AC were right up there with Guttenberg’s printing press as the greatest inventions ever.

One of the side effects of a horrific economic slide is a sense of defeat as well. However, we can’t be so down in the dumps as to become vulnerable to so many things, including the shifting away from the things that made the nation great in the first place… our innovation and the high tech industry to fuel the future prosperity.”

Yes, I do expect to see the global consumers buying millions upon millions of more iPods, iPhones, iPads… and of course, the PicoP projectors.

The next popular product categories that integrate PicoP projectors would be fixed and mobile computing devices, and a whole range of multi-functional consumer electronic products such as smartphones, digital photo frames, personal media players, digital cameras, and digital camcorders.

“As mobile devices add more multimedia capabilities, embedded picoprojectors can add a big-screen experience to a very small device,” said David Chamberlain, Author of the report and Principal Analyst, Cellular Devices, Mobile Consumer and Mobile Video Services, In-Stat.

In-Stat found that illumination technologies are rapidly and continuously evolving by the day with manufacturers able to produce and supply Light Emitting Diodes (LED’s) and green lasers, and that the demand for such gizmos integrated within other devices will be so huge that the volumes will easily drive down modular costs to the extent that pico projectors will become part and parcel of billions of relatively low cost cell phones and media players.

“Technological advances in miniaturization, signal processing, and light sources—including green laser—are making pico projectors a realistic feature for small battery powered devices like cell phones, media players, computing devices, and other consumer electronics,” said Chamberlain.

The future for pico projectors is guaranteed since there is evidence of consumers willing to pay more for additional technologies such as good quality cameras, reported TMCnet, to be included in a single hand held mobile device.

Anant Goel
[Edited By]

Flash Crash: Is Another One Coming Soon?

2010-06-21T18:01:00.001-04:00

Some of you have asked for my reasons to stop posting new entries on the blog.

Without going into the details, let it suffice to say that after the “flash crash” of May 6th I wanted to take some time off to re-group, re-strategize and get a fresh perspective on all things related to financial matters.

The “flash crash” of May 6th, when the DOW dropped over 1,000 points in a few minutes, may be history but its after-effects—and threat to the global stock markets—continue to haunt further with two recent mini-crashes in individual stocks.

Regulators have characterized the initial flash crash, as a one-off occurrence possibly attributable to a "fat finger" trade or some other market anomaly… and to this day, regulators are still not sure what caused it.

Growing number of traders and regulators believe the flash crash is symptomatic of a larger problem with high-frequency trading, derivatives trading, and a very complex market that lacks visibility and is susceptible to similar events in the future.

Thus far, the main reaction has been the implementation of circuit breakers that stop trading on individual stocks should they rise or fall more than 10 percent in a five-minute span.

The rule, implemented for a six-month test period, played out its part twice over the last few weeks. First, it was when Washington Post [WPO] shares doubled inside of a few seconds on June 16th, from nearly $460 to $929.18. Trades totaling 766 shares at $929.18 crossed on NYSE Euronext’s NYSE Arca platform at 3:07:30 p.m. in New York, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The stock changed hands for $462.84 prior to the jump. The orders, later canceled, triggered a five-minute halt under rules adopted after the May 6th flash crash… which erased $862 billion from U.S. stocks in less than 20 minutes.

The circuit breakers essentially did their job, halting trading in the company after the surge. But the mystery remains over why such events happen in the first place. While the regulations didn’t prevent the erroneous orders from being placed, they may have kept more shares from being bought and sold at prices that would later have been voided.

Tech services company Diebold [DBD] saw its shares plunge 35 percent then recover in a period of a few minutes on June 2nd, before the circuit-breakers kicked in. The plunge in Diebold shares that erased 35 percent of its market value in six seconds is under review by U.S. regulators, people with direct knowledge of the investigation said. The stock dropped $8 in six seconds to $18.26 before recovering to above $25 a minute later, Bloomberg data show. Four-hundred twenty-seven trades occurred in Diebold shares below $23 totaling about 113,600 shares, according to Bloomberg data. All of them took place on electronic venues such as Nasdaq and Bats Exchanges.

The non-transparency that stems from high frequency trades, which can happen in milliseconds, makes tracking the trades virtually impossible. Some estimates have high-frequency trading accounting for about 70 percent of all market activity. Defenders of high-frequency trading say it pumps liquidity into the markets and makes fair trading possible. But perhaps the most stunning characteristic of the May 6th flash crash was that liquidity actually evaporated from the market, sending shares of some big-name companies momentarily to a penny when they couldn't find a bid.

“Exchange traded funds as a class were more affected by the flash crash of May 6th than any other category of securities," the Investment Technology Group said in an analysis.

Most traders still believe that the integrity of the market is intact and investors have little to fear, even though there's little reason to believe future flash crashes won't happen.

With that in mind, I’m back in the saddle for another ride on this roller coaster.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Reschedules Q1 2010 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call

2010-05-03T10:48:00.000-04:00

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On April 30, 2010, 8:00 am EST

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS) announced today that it has rescheduled its conference call to discuss its first quarter 2010 financial and operating results and current business operations from May 3, 2010 to May 10, 2010 at 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT.

Continues…

*****

Here’s the link…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100430005288&newsLang=en

To re-schedule an earnings CC just three days after announcing the original date with an excuse like “to provide us with additional time needed to gather and review information on our business operations” is pretty lame to say the least.

What more could you learn about your business operations that you haven’t in the last 14 years? If it is a delay due to the recently deployed ERP [or accounting] system, then say so and we, the small and institutional investors of Microvision, will understand that and wait. Some of us have been waiting for 10 years already… and 10 more days delay will not hurt so much.

But under the circumstance; what would hurt more is that the speculator, competitors, and unscrupulous stock manipulators will have a field day with MVIS stock… the evidence of which is already in place with a 10% drop since the announced CC delay.

This is not the first time that Microvision management has shown insensitivity [to put it mildly] towards the ways of Wall Street; where speculators, competitors, and the manipulators prowl the street looking for the weak, vulnerable, and the unsuspecting.

Acts like this are financially devastating; to the small, as well as, the institutional investors alike.

I speak here for the small investors [my friends and family] and at least one institutional investor that I’m engaged with.

I certainly would like to see some kind of management response to this post… that is if they publish my post at The Displayground in the first place.

Anant Goel

Microvision: Patents Laser 3D Projector with PicoP Display Engine (Part 1)

2010-04-20T09:39:00.002-04:00

3D TVs started to arrive in consumer electronic stores in early March to great fanfare, and consumers are intrigued...but are also curious. The big question, of course, is whether these new TVs can transport the 3D excitement from movie theaters to our homes.

Based on excitment generated by the first available HDTV models with 3D video capabilities, the answer is a resounding yes.

Research has shown that users prefer wide screen, high definition, 2D/3D motion pictures with fast refresh [without motion blur] and always in focus images for all forms of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications.

3D Content Meets 3D Laser Projector:

3D content is proliferating rapidly. Movies, games and increasingly live sports and concert videos are being filmed in 3D. One unique challenge facing this emerging category is the lack of in-home 3D displays. The 120Hz LCD panels and plasma screens typically require shutter glasses for viewing 3D content, but next generation display technologies employ passive 3D glasses… which are lighter weight, cost less and are more acceptable to the wearer.

Microvision's laser scanning PicoP Display technology platform enables 3D content in the home that is viewed through lightweight passive glasses… all without the purchase of a new, large, expensive flat panel monitor. Recently, in June of 2009, Ben Averch of Microvision made a presentation at the 2009 Projection Summit. His presentation addressed the burgeoning 3D content market and the unique value proposition for a mobile 3D laser projector…using Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine.

In March 2009, Microvision received a patent on laser PicoP based 3D projector. That means the laser PicoP Display Engine of today will have upward growth mobility to High Definition projection [first] and then to 3D projection using passive glasses. That’s an exciting growth road map for the little master of the pico projector domain.

Here’s the information on the patent…

Title: THREE-DIMENSIONAL IMAGE PROJECTION SYSTEM AND METHOD

Abstract:
An image projection system having an optical projector and a method for projecting an image. The image projection system enables viewing the images in three dimensions and securely viewing the images in a public forum. The image projection system may include a portable, handheld optical projector that is spaced apart from a display screen and that redirects an image signal to the display screen. The image signal is scattered by the display screen and transmitted to a viewer’s eyes through a set of eyewear worn by the viewer. The display screen preserves the polarization state of the image signal. The portable handheld optical projector may be a cellular phone, a personal digital assistant, a portable computer, or the like that includes one or more sets of light emission systems capable of projecting the image signal. The optical projector may be portable and handheld, or stationary or semi-stationary.

Here’s the link to the patent document…
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/20090079941.html

This is great news for the simple reason...

The next big thing that the display industry is going into is 3D. Look at the number of 3D movies coming out lately… they have dramatically increased. Here’re some quotes from the patent application…

3D Technology:

“In addition to displaying images in two-dimensions, projection display manufacturers have developed systems for displaying images in three-dimensions. One technique for creating three dimensional (“3D”) projection display systems is to create two separate monochromatic images…

Although these systems are inexpensive to implement, the color reproduction of the images is poor and the filters may not completely block the adjacent eye’s image, which causes ghosting. Further, the technique uses large immobile equipment to project the images.”

“Another technique for creating a 3D image is to project separate images having different polarization states…

This technique offers better color reproduction than the red-blue monochromatic technique, however the projection displays are large, stationary, expensive to implement, and, because about half the light is lost, inefficient.”

“Accordingly, it would be advantageous to have a three-dimensional display system and a method for displaying three-dimensional images that is; cost efficient to manufacture, makes efficient use of light, and may be either stationary or portable.”

“The portable handheld optical projector may be a cellular phone, a personal digital assistant, a portable computer, or the like that includes one or more sets of light emission systems capable of projecting the image signal. The optical projector may be portable and handheld, or stationary or semi-stationary.”

Microvision 3D Projector patent states…

“In accordance with another embodiment of the present invention, an image projection system comprises a light emission system and a scanning device, wherein the light emission system includes a plurality of light sources. For example, the light sources may be two sets of red-green-blue (“RGB”) lasers, where one set of lasers transmits light in a first polarization state and the other set of lasers transmits light in a second polarization state that is different from the first polarization state. Thus, this embodiment comprises two red lasers, two green lasers, and two blue lasers, where the red lasers emit light having different polarization states from each other, the green lasers emit light having different polarization states from each other, and the blue lasers emit light having different polarization states from each other. The light can be linearly polarized or circularly polarized. In the case of a linear polarization state, the light transmitted to one filter may be vertically polarized and the light transmitted to the other filter may be horizontally polarized. In the case of a circular polarization state, the light transmitted to one filter may be right circularly polarized and the light transmitted to the other filter may be left circularly polarized. It should be noted that the light may be coherent light or non-coherent light.

The light from one set of lasers is combined and redirected towards a display screen using a scanning device and the light from the other set of lasers is combined and redirected towards the display screen using the same scanning device as the first set of lasers or a different scanning device. The scanning device spatially modulates the light to vary the color and intensity of each pixel. The scanned beam displays are configured to slightly vary the content between the two two-dimensional images as they are projected into a viewer's eyes. The brain uses this difference in content to create an illusion of depth. More particularly, the light from one set of RGB lasers is in a first polarization state and the light from the other set of RGB lasers is in a second polarization state that is the opposite of the first polarization state. The light from all the lasers may be combined into a single light beam and spatially modulated in unison. Thus, all the light sources are scanned through the same angular extent. The three-dimensional image may be created by temporally delaying the video signal and modulating the intensity of each laser. The scattered light strikes eyewear worn by a viewer, wherein the eyewear includes a filter associated with the viewer's left eye and a filter associated with the viewer's right eye.

In accordance with another embodiment of the present invention, privacy in a public forum may be provided by the image projection system. The eyewear worn by the viewer is configured to decode polarized light. The light can be linearly polarized or circularly polarized. The portable handheld source of electromagnetic radiation projects an image in a first polarization state and an inverse image in a second polarization state that is complementary to the first polarization state. The viewer wearing the eyewear can filter one set of images seeing only the desired content transmitted by the portable handheld source of electromagnetic radiation, whereas others see a “white image” on the display screen. Thus, the viewer can view projected images that are of a personal nature or confidential while others are prevented from viewing or decoding the images. Alternatively, privacy in a public forum can be achieved by using eyewear that is synchronized to the polarization states of the light.”

The display screen is a polarization preserving screen. Thus, the light striking display screen and the light scattered by display screen have the same polarization state. In accordance with one embodiment, display screen comprises a microlens array coated with a layer of aluminum. In accordance with another embodiment, display screen comprises a surface having a silver finish. Suitable screens may be available from Da-Lite Screen Company, Warsaw, Ind., 46581.

Eyewear set comprises of a frame having bow, temples, and filters that transmit images to the left and right eyes. Filters are configured to decode polarized light. The polarized light can be linearly polarized light or circularly polarized light. Filters comprise a quarter-wavelength plate laminated to a polarizer. It should be noted that the type of plates laminated to polarizer are not limitations of the present invention. For example, plates can be waveplates, polarizer filters, combinations of polarizers, combinations of waveplates, polarizing optics, or the like. In addition, the polarization transmission characteristics of filters are not limitations of the present invention. Filters may be configured to decode vertically or horizontally polarized light or right or left circularly polarized light. Techniques for coupling plates to polarizers are known to those skilled in the art.

Here’s what I think…

The PicoP Display Engine will first go with High Definition images and then progress to 3D projection. That looks like the growth path for the next 2 to 3 years with huge revenue growth potential.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: One More Purchase Order in Next Two Weeks?

2010-04-08T16:37:00.003-04:00

First, the good news…

Microvision Completes Design of New PicoP Laser Display Engine for Mobile Embedded Applications

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday March 29, 2010, 7:29 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has completed the design and begun shipping initial evaluation samples to several prospective customers of its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine.

Continues…

*****

Here’s the link…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Completes-Design-bw-3543654902.html?x=0&.v=1

Then, the exciting news…

Microvision Receives $8.5 Million Purchase Order for New PicoP Laser Projection Display Engine

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Monday April 5, 2010, 7:06 am EDT

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS - News), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products, announced today that it has received an $8.5 million purchase order for its new ultra-miniature PicoP® laser projection display engine from a consumer electronics customer. The OEM plans to embed the PicoP engine inside a high-end mobile media player for release in late 2010 and plans to announce its launch at that time.

Continues…

*****

Here’s the link…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Microvision-Receives-85-bw-2670010777.html?x=0&.v=1

Now for some projections [pun intended] into the future…

There are four areas that I would like to focus on…

1. SHOWwx was just the beginning of things to come

2. Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology

3. More Purchase Order to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production.

4. Case for brighter [like 20 lumens] PicoP Display Engines for the embedded version.

SHOWwx Just the Beginning of Things to Come:
On March 24th, Microvision started selling its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx to the US market… selling them directly; from its on-line web store for a handsome profit. When you sell directly; your margins are always better because of the savings in middleman’s commission. By the next earnings conference call; we would find out for sure what sales revenue and profit margins are from on-line sale of SHOWwx.

On April 5th, Microvision confirmed the receipt of a purchase order for $8.5 million dollars for its ultra miniature PDE… and that is the part that confirms my view that SHOWwx and the $8.5 million purchase order is the just the beginning of things to come.

Here’s why…
Potential markets for laser based PicoP Display Engine technology is not only huge… but it is also a high margin market opportunity. If you were to consider the high-end Media Player market alone… the possibilities are enormous…

Low Power Front Projection Media Players for the Third World Countries:

Think about 2.5 billion people in India and China... as they represent the potential buyers of a low power front projection portable TV/Media Player that offers a large screen [40'' to 100''] high definition always in focus vivid and bright color viewing experience. Extremely low ENERGY consumption [like 10 watts or less] and portability is the key market demand factor here. Energy will become more and more scarce and expensive by leaps and bounds…whereas the portability allows for sharing of resources among friends and family.

Low Power Front Projection Media Player for the Master Bedroom:

Think about a billion bedrooms globally that could use a ceiling projector... for adding another dimension to the various ways of media consumption for information and entertainment. We have desired the bedroom viewing of television for ever, so it seems, and some of us may have installed televisions in the bedroom. However, now it is possible to add, by the millions, a low power media player with built-in PicoP projector in our bedrooms… that offers short throw ratio, wide screen, high definition, bright and vivid color, and always in focus viewing experience. Media player/projector runs on low power batteries... so no risk of electrocuting yourself. No significant heat... so you won't burn yourself. No heavy duty TV to install on the bedroom wall.

Low Power Portable Projection Media Player for Every Bedroom in the House:

All you need is one portable Media Player with built-in PicoP projector… that gets moved around from room to room when and where it’s needed. It certainly is a cheaper alternative than buying a TV for each room of the house. This portable Media Player can also be the one you pack with your bags… when you are on the go.

Market Size for Portable Media Players with built-in PicoP Projectors is huge… like in billions world-wide. The most recent order for $8.5 million from the Consumer Electronic Company is just the beginning of what’s to come and not the end.

Laser PicoP Technology as “Core” Technology vs. “Commodity” Technology:
Some have questioned the laser PicoP as “core” technology [like CPUs from Intel] vs. “commodity” technology [like cell phone touch screen and cameras].

My take on the subject is as follows...

Picop [the generic version] is an enabling technology and therefore a commodity... no question about that.

However, laser PicoP is a core technology and that's how it is being positioned by Microvision. Picop technology from TI or 3M will not create [or capture] as large a market as laser PicoP would... due to inherent image quality and functionality only possible due to lasers being used as the light source.

Microvision laser PicoP technology will capture its fair share of the captive markets but it would go-on-further and create markets that are only possible because of laser PicoP. And that's not the commodity markets by any means. Microvision recognizes that right from the beginning; and therefore is positioning the PicoP Display Engines accordingly… by using the “Image by PicoP” insignia on every thing related to its technology.

There will be others with laser picop technology down the road... and that's why Microvision is churning out these patents by the dozens… to protect its IP turf. Also, the "Image by PicoP" is part of this marketing strategy that positions Microvision PicoP technology as a "core" and not "commodity" right from day one. From what I have seen, and there is plenty of evidence for you to see as well, Microvision is charging a premium price for its PicoP technology. Just look at SHOWwx Limited Edition sold at $999 and the Commercial Edition currently for sale at $549.

I hope you can appreciate the difference... because it’s worth billions of dollars when it is executed with knowledge, passion, and gumption.

More Purchase Orders to Confirm Rapid Ramp-up of Green Laser Production:
If there was another Purchase Order next week, would that convince you that Osram and Corning are ramping-up production of their green lasers faster than expected?

Here’s what I’m thinking…

Many OEMs have sampled the first version PEKs from last year. Now the second generation PEKs, for embedded applications, are going out and dramatically improve upon what has been tested before! I believe that the embedded version of the PicoP Display Engine is brighter [over 20 lumens], smaller and consumes less energy.

In other words, time to market for these OEMs has collapsed to a point that few more may be interested in bringing PicoP embedded digital devices to the market for the coming Christmas season. I don’t think the Japanese and Koreans are going to let APPLE hog all the discretionary income of the America consumer for the iPad.

The case for brighter PicoP Display Engine for Embedded Application…
Corning has been slow to ramp-up due to improvements in their SHG green laser technology… that is the switch from “wave guided SHG laser” to “SIDM-based adaptive optics SHG laser” technology. I remember, from a year ago in a conversation with the Corning Product Manager, that G-2000 green laser would incorporate enhancements leading to brighter pictures… with a target goal of 20 lumens or better.

Here’re some links…

Corning G-1000 laser design [at 10 lumens with 10:1 contrast ratio] and the SIDM-based adaptive optics technology…
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=14329

Corning G-2000 laser pumps more lumens [like 23 lumens] at a reduced contrast ratio of 3:1 …
http://www.corning.com/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=12733

Corning licked its waveguided SHG laser production issues last year by switching over to SIDM-based adaptive optics technology.

This year, Corning is the wild card with its contrast optimized green laser at 23 lumens.

Microvision future is bright and is getting brighter every day… just like its laser PicoP Display Engine.

Higher stock valuation will come in time… just like the HD resolution on its PicoP projection images.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Color Eyewear Development Program

2010-04-04T14:41:00.000-04:00

Now that Microvision has commercially launched its laser PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US market; and that the initial shipments have begun in earnest, the inquiring minds want to know: “Now what?”

From what I hear, the focus has now increased in scope to embrace additional five areas with varying levels of priority and resource allocation…

• PicoP Display Engine modules for embedded applications,

• High Definition and brighter pico image initiative,

• Color Eyewear product development,

• 3D projector and light weight passive polarized 3D glasses development,

• New PEK modules and development support for multitude of third party applications.

I promise to pass on the information, on each of the above subjects, as it becomes available to me… or when it has gathered some critical mass to become worthy of further discussion.

So, here we go with our first subject that seems to be coming back to life after sitting on the back burner for almost six months…

First, here’s the link to Microvision Eyewear Development Program that I found on the Internet…
http://www.microvision.com/pdfs/program_brief.pdf

Note the key statement…

“Microvision and its business partners are developing see-through personal Color Eyewear for mobility applications that will extend the usability of mobile devices transforming the user experience.”

Microvision Color Eyewear Product alone is worth billions in [high margin] revenue for the company.

This is why…

Paradigm Shift: Another Microvision product that will change the way we view our world.

Ultimate Mobility: Allows you to engage with the world and your personal mobile content at the same time.

Extend the Usability of Mobile Devices: to further enhance and transform user experience.

Ultimate Social Networking Tool: Allows you to keep in constant contact with social networks… without having to pull your mobile phone out of your pocket.

Next Generation of Color Eyewear: that is not only fashionable but also elevates the user experience.

Ultimate in Private Viewing: of information for business [like teleprompter], networking and entertainment.

Ultimate in High Definition Image Quality: High Definition images in 1080i or beyond… limited only by the pixel size of laser light source.

Immersive Virtual Experiences: in 2D or 3D using Microvision’s Color Eyewear equipped with Augmented Reality

Market Size: Multi-billion dollar worldwide market… no doubt.

Competition: None to speak of at this time.

Timing: Coming soon… in 2011 or there about. Timing of commercial product release to the global market is the only wild card in the deck.

Program Funding: by Lockheed Martin sub-contract…

Here’s this statement from Press Release of July 13th, 2009…

“Microvision is very pleased to work with Lockheed Martin to advance the development of see-through eyewear displays in support of the DARPA ULTRA-Vis program…”

“… By designing Microvision’s ultra-miniature PicoP Display Engine and our thin Substrate Guided Relay (SGR) Optics into a wearable display, we have the potential to bring battery operable, low-profile, see-through, full-color eyewear displays to users.”

“DARPA has created the ULTRA-Vis program to bring tactical see-through heads-up information to ground soldiers in order to increase their safety and situational awareness in urban environments, the company said. When integrated to an information management system, Microvision said its eyewear display could enable users to receive visual commands, view geo-registered iconic representations, and receive other full-color image content overlaid on their view.

Here’s the link…
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2418318/

When you add the billions of dollars revenue potential from the PicoP Display Engine and PicoP Projector market to the “Color Eyewear” market… there is no better conclusion than: “Microvision has the potential of becoming a multi-billion dollar enterprise no doubt”.

Will Microvision stock [Nasdaq: MVIS] be a $500 stock in year 2014 remains to be seen… however all the signs are pointing that we are heading in the right direction and smart money is taking position as we speak?

We, as investors, can be part of this paradigm shift that has the potential of extraordinary financial gains during the “change” process that may spread over a few years… and is underway already.

Anant Goel
(This blog entry represents only the author’s opinion of Microvision as an investment vehicle)

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Initial Reviews of Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx

2010-04-02T18:32:00.001-04:00

On March 24th, Microvision launched its first laser PicoP projector SHOWwx for sale from its on-line store…
http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

Sales of this DVD quality and focus free laser projector have been quite brisk without any visible signs of advertising or promotional effort… indicating a broad based demand; from those that are aware of this pico projection as the emerging new technology that seems to have arrived in full bloom this spring.

I received my Limited Edition SHOWwx a few days ago and shared the pico projection experience with my friends, family and some total strangers.

Here’s my personal experience with Limited Edition SHOWwx…

The packaging is First Class, including a solid high quality 12x16" shiny black box that says "Image by PicoP" in silver letters. All the accessories are in their own quality boxes and they all rest on black grass like packing material. It also includes a Limited Edition SHOWwx Laser Pico Projector Certificate of Authenticity signed by Alexander Tokman… the CEO of Microvision. I was very impressed as to the very upscale quality of the packaging. It tells me that Microvision is a quality company with a quality product included in the box.

The metallic blue color SHOWwx was nicely packed compactly in its own compartment. A chrome plated insignia “SHOWwx Limited Edition” graced on the top half of the laser projector. I quickly read thru the few pages of instructions and safety manual to familiarize with the fine nuances of this feather weight machine that boasts of up to 100” projection display under certain ambient light conditions.

I inserted the battery in the SHOWwx as instructed in the manual and charged the battery for a few hours till the orange light turned green. When I first turned it on, it displayed my name in the lower right hand corner which was pretty cool. I walked around the house projecting various size images up and down the ceiling to walls to the hard wood floor. What an experience… feeling like a kid in the candy store! The highlight of this experience culminated in the fairly dark entertainment center in my finished basement.

Over 100” vivid color and focused image on the white wall just had one response from my 10 year old son… WOW!

One of the main usages that I had planned for SHOWwx was to watch streaming sports and You Tube videos. But, I still have not yet figured out how to enable the external monitor/projector on my HP Pavilion laptop. I tried the FN+F5 key combination the laptop instructions recommended; but that didn't work so I'll keep working on that.

The next thing I wanted to use SHOWwx was to hook it up to my portable DVD player and watch big screen movies in the entertainment center of the basement. Since my portable DVD player has 9" screen, it handles and travels well but I wanted a bigger screen to watch the movies. Surprisingly, even though SHOWwx comes with 4 different cables the one I needed was not included. So, I had to buy the proper male to male RCA video cable for $5 at the local Radio Shack

I hooked it up to my portable DVD player and found I had to press a switch that made my DVD screen go dark but produced a picture on the SHOWwx. The colors were bright and vivid and there were no green lines on the top or bottom of the screen when playing “Star Wars” on the DVD. The picture is certainly brighter when the screen size is 40” diagonal… but is still very sharp at 80” diagonal. Like most projectors the SHOWwx works best in a dimly lit or dark room… just like in a theater. The battery charge was good enough to last over 110 minute… before I had to go looking for the spare that came with the Limited Edition SHOWwx.

Paul Anderson did a very nice experiment with the SHOWwx battery run time that you should take a few minutes to look at…
http://mvisblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/my-showwx-experiment.html

Overall, I think it works great and the unit is so light you could easily carry it in a shirt pocket although mine came with a nice heavy duty carrying case with an "X" (for SHOWwx) on it that easily clips-on to your belt.

The only obvious improvement I would recommend; is to include an on-board SD memory card… for downloading and using digital content without having to attach SHOWwx to a host device.

With my personal experience set aside…

Initial reviews of SHOWwx and its projection image quality are coming-in from the first adopter users of the Limited Edition and the Commercial Edition product that was just recently shipped over the last few days.

If you are willing to accept the good with the bad, here’s a collection from a diverse group of people that have had a chance to look at the SHOWwx image projection in real life setting:

• “Tremendous product! This pico projection communicates the giddy excitement that awaits those who see and play with the PicoP for the first time. Such a bright, clear, colorful image from such a tiny device is hard to accept at first, as it contradicts one's prior experiences. Those guys were getting happy feet just like I did the first time I saw the PicoP in action. Microvision technology is going to OWN the high quality end of these emerging product categories.”

• “The projected image is from iPod Touch that has a resolution of 483 by 320 pixels. SHOWwx has a resolution of 848 by 480 pixels. If you liked the image at 483x320 pixels [iPod Touch] just imagine how awesome the image would look at 848x480 pixels.”

• “Even at the $549 launch price this product is amazing value and I for one will probably be buying several.”

• "...the amazing thing about this projector, it's not a shitty DLP or LCD based light engine... it's a scanning LASER!!!"

• "Because it's a beam of light from lasers it's always in focus, incredibly bright and the lasers have an immense lifetime..."

• "The Microvision laser projector seriously impresses me (and come on, you know how cynical I am!) but I'm not at all excited by those little DLP projectors that are just hitting the market... they are built on an old technology that isn't translating to the mobile world very well at all..."

• I have seen the videos of this product image. What I notice is so much better image quality in real life. It's worth mentioning a few facts:

1. Due to the slight difference between the refresh rate of video camera and the laser scan lines on the Microvision projector; the video image appears to flicker… which does not happen in "real life" and is a side-effect of recording projected image with a camera.

2. Most digital cameras don’t handle the low ambient light recording well and therefore don’t do the SHOWwx pico projector any favors... but the video images still look amazing!

• “Needless to say, I absolutely LOVE this product."

• "Yeah - Dad's mad about this, but I have to admit the demo was excellent. No focusing and a massive clear image created from a handset-sized device. Imagine sharing your images at a party on a wall...”

• “This unit outperforms the comparable Optoma unit and the actual projector is about 2/3rd of the size of an iPhone."

• “Those guys were stunned. I love to see the reaction of tech junkies like me.”

• “Just get me some big fat orders and I'll be happy.”… Obviously from someone who desperately wants to work for Microvision in the sales department.

• “You might mention that the flickering on the screen doesn't show when you're using the projector live. And yeah, I want one . . .”.

• “It is almost laughable now how the "green laser supply" issue has been blown out of all proportions by so many others. A serious public company with serious business doesn't require reading a bunch of tea leafs or put out a bunch of rumor fodder.”

• “Go back and look at all the posts for the last 8 years about how many "this is it" posts on a tea leaf reading have been pronounced and how many have come true?”

• “He could have been referring to a couple of large corporations with sales forces that have inquired about purchasing a number of units when available. However, I think they would want on-board memory so they can load-up a presentation without a second device hooked-up.”

• “Looks a lot better than the Pico Pocket Projector I reviewed a couple of months ago. Looking forward to buying SHOWwx with on-board memory in the near future!”

• “Brilliant! The fact that it's non-focus is the best part.”

• “… I think the SHOWWX is fantastic and everyone will want one when they find out about it.”

So there you have it, comments from those enamored with PicoP… those with inquisitive minds… and those who are skeptics.

Be careful with what you wish for!

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Growth Stock with 50,000% Profit Potential

2010-03-28T19:51:00.003-04:00

I have always believed investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift; with an eye on the long term growth prospects of the company.

In the last 30 odd years that I have been investing, I have had my share of good fortune and misfortune. However, what’s important is the fact that I managed to secure my financial future and live today to talk about my strategy of investing in companies that ride the wave of change or bring about a paradigm shift. Some of these companies─ like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, and Cisco─ have grown to be huge enterprises and have made their early investors over 10,000% or more since their inception.

A while back I wrote a post about my 14,000% profit experience with Intel during its growth phase from early 80’s to the end of Dot.com era in the year 2000. Here’s the link to that post…

http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/09/intel-i-made-over-14000-profit-since.html

I’m one of those old timers that invested in Intel during its early days as a company… in the early 80’s. I recall buying some shares for a total cost of $1,000 dollars. I had to liquidate all my position in Intel during the Dot Com bust of 2000… around May of that year. However, it was not all that bad, because I managed to sell pretty close to the all time high and I remember bragging about my good fortune and fortitude to have stayed the course to make over 14,000% profit… for a net gain of over $140,000 dollars including dividends and the stock splits.

The past performers in my portfolio have served well. However, these companies like Intel, Dell, Qualcomm, Cisco, and Microsoft are past their hyper growth phase and are now too big and are just slow earnings growth vehicles. No disrespect to these fine companies… it’s just that they don’t fit the “hyper growth” company model any more.

One of my stocks holding now, besides an options income portfolio, is Microvision. I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.

Here’s why…

On Wall Street, you often hear terms like “top dog” or “first mover” in the context of a growth stock presentation to institutional clients. It’s quite interesting really…

A "top dog" is a company that dominates its industry... and a "first mover" is a company with a technology or product so revolutionary that it disrupts an existing industry and creates an entirely new one.

On the rare occasion that you find a company that is both─ both a top dog and a first mover ─ the chances are pretty good that you've found your next big winner...

Just think of eBay in the online auction market... Amazon in the online retail market... Netflix in the DVD-rental market… and Cisco in the router market… etc.

These companies redefined the way business was done, launched entirely new industries, and continue to dominate those industries to this day. And you don't need me to tell you how handsomely they've rewarded shareholders along the way.

In order to find companies that will deliver truly life-changing investment returns, you have to find growth companies early in their life cycle and truly believe that they are indeed the ones to ride the wave of change or bring about the paradigm shift… with potential of sustained long term growth.

Before we talk about Microvision as the growth company of the future with a 50,000% profit potential, let’s first consider…

Is now really a good time to be buying growth stocks?

The fact is; it takes guts to make money in this market.

But here's some good news…

For one thing, our current economic conditions bear a striking similarity to the economic downturn of the early 1990s. And Morningstar reports that during that recession, “growth” stocks more than doubled the return of "value" stocks.

For another thing, "growth” stocks can excel even if the broad market continues to stumble. In fact, the analysts expect better profit prospects for growth stocks than for value stocks.

Money for nothing...
We have to be realistic in our expectations when searching or investing in growth companies. The purpose of looking at the great companies listed above is not to show that growth investing is an all-win situation. Far from it!

The purpose of the illustration is to demonstrate how well great companies perform over a long period. If you can identify just one great company early, and then hold on for the long term, you can do pretty well for yourself.

Growth investing is highly volatile, and it will fray the nerves of those individuals with a low risk tolerance. Having said that, all investors should devote a portion of their portfolios to growth stocks. For those traveling in the fast lane, an allocation of 30% of their portfolios might make sense. More conservative types should allocate at least 10% in order to provide a little juice for their investments. I'm somewhere in between, so I devote about 20% of my portfolio to growth.

Microvision: Growth Stock with 50,000% Profit Potential

I believe Microvision has the makings of the next 50,000% profit producer in the next 5 years or so.

In order to become a very successful, profitable and huge company [in terms of market capitalization] you need the following pre-requisites:

Management: with expertise, vision, support network, past record, communicative and persuasive skills and a will to succeed.

In my opinion, we have the best possible management with all the pre-requisite attributes necessary for managing Microvision at this stage of the company’s growth. Here’s a link for your review…

http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/team.html

Financially Sound: with money to support on-going operations, R&D expenditures, product development and commercialization.

According to the latest annual report for period ending December 2009, Microvision had $45.7 million in cash and short term cash instruments. Looking at the financials, the company is burning about $11 million per Qtr. At this rate, the company has about 4 Qtr worth of cash… assuming no additional revenue from product sales or contract payments.

Since we already have a SHOWwx product lunched in the US, Europe and the Asia Pacific region… I would venture to say that most R&D expenses have already been incurred [almost $300 million to date] and net profit from sales could reduce the cash burn by 3-4 million dollars per Qtr. That would stretch the available cash reserves to 7 Qtr or so. It’s ironic, but the investors of the past have funded this massive R&D undertaking to-date. However, the current investors will reap the benefits and are assured the company has cash to fund the on-going operations, product development and embedded PDEs commercialization.

Here’re some links…
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1400178&highlight=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=MVIS

Disruptive Technology: that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.

Microvision’s core technology [PicoP Display Engine] is weaved into five product offerings and each of the product line has the potential of generating billions in revenue:

Vehicle Displays: for automobiles.
http://www.microvision.com/vehicle_displays/index.html

Wearable Displays: a see-through, high-resolution display platform that enables lightweight and fashionable eyewear displays for mobile devices. Microvision’s Color Eyewear platform allows mobile users to access their personal content and services while keeping their vision of the outside world free and clear, letting mobile users stay on the move.

http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/mobile.html

Pico Projector Displays: brings big screens to small devices. The Pico Projector or “PicoP Display Engine” can be embedded in mobile phones, laptop or similarly-sized mobile devices to enable upto 100” full color projection display [with DVD resolution] for applications such as streaming video, digital TV, high resolution photographs, and surfing the net.

Standalone Laser PicoP Projector SHOWwx:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/standalone.html

Embedded Unit:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/embedded.html

Applications Gallery:
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html

Military Displays: are used across various branches of the U.S. Military including the U.S. Army, and U.S. Army Reserve.
http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/military.html

Laser Bar Code Scanner: features a patent-pending, low-cost, shock-resistant, mechanical/magnetic laser scan engine.
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/index.html

Competitive Advantage: Microvision has over 115 U.S. Patents issued and 79 Patents pending to protect its intellectual property… giving it a huge competitive edge.

http://www.microvision.com/about_microvision/index.html

Technologically Feasible: Microvision has five different products in its portfolio. Each product has been demonstrated to be technologically feasible… with some being offered commercially.

PicoP Display Engine technology is based on the proven and mature silicon MEMS laser scanning mirror technology… as demonstrated by their commercially marketed “ROV” bar code scanner system.

http://www.microvision.com/technology/index.html
http://www.microvision.com/barcode/rov.html

The company recently launched the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010.

http://www.microvision.com/showwx/

Microvision has teamed-up with Asia Optical, a global leader in optical component solutions and contract manufacturing, speaks highly of the technological feasibility of the PicoP product. This collaboration focuses on leveraging Asia Optical experience in high-volume design and manufacturing to create a compact, manufacture able and affordable PicoP Display Engine product for Microvision customers. Ultimately, it is expected that PicoP Display Engine will be incorporated into a variety of applications and products in the automotive and mobile consumer electronic products.

The development agreement with Vodafone and Motorola is big for the following reasons…

The deal with the top tier cell-phone companies [Vodafone and Motorola] validates the Microvision technology and its business model.

The deal with Vodafone and Motorola are not exclusive [at this stage] and possibly is the beginning of a relationship that can easily grow into these companies taking equity interest in MVIS… or a possible buyout in the future. As the company [MVIS] has indicated, they are talking to several other large mobile phone and consumer electronics firms.

The top tier cell-phone companies [like Vodafone and Motorola] see value in announcing the relationship with Microvision at this stage of the product development… meaning that the product is within the spec for an embedded device for the cell-phones… and on schedule for early introduction in 2011.

Microvision launched the standalone PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US in March of 2010 and is on schedule to deliver the embedded unit for commercial production in early 2011.

Market Size: The market for PicoP Display Engine is huge. The potential markets are automobiles, mobile phones, smartphones, laptops, PDAs, iPods, iPhones, Pads, digital cameras, camcorders, personal mobile TVs, and the fashion eyewear.

Here are some world-wide statistics...
New autos: sales for 2007 … 49 million units
http://www.metrics2.com/blog/2006/12/28/world_auto_sales_flat_in_2007_china_becomes_no3_re.html

New Mobile Phone Sales: for 2007… 1.15 billion units
http://www.itbusinessedge.com/item/?ci=29702

New Laptop Sales: for 2007 … 207 million units
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,132861-pg,1/article.html

New “PDA’s, iPods, iPhones, Digital Cameras and Camcorders”… over 300 million units

New Eyewear Sale: for 2008… 1 billion units

Personal Mobile TV/Projectors… new market opens up with potential 1 billion units
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/application_gallery.html

Technology and Business Partnerships: Microvision has partnered with the biggest [financially], the most respected [for over 100 years] and the best in the business to design and manufacture its PicoP Display Engine for the automotive and consumer electronic markets.

Now what we need is a few more commercial business partners and OEM agreements for the PicoP Display Engine and Wearable Display product line. I am sure it will happen soon and when it does happen the MVIS stock will run up the charts as we have never seen before.

Microvision has the potential of being the “Top Dog” and the “First Mover” in the global PicoP projection market…

When investing in technology, always look for the “killer app”—yes, the software program, piece of hardware, product improvement or whatever—that makes the product stand out.

Take Internet browsers for example. Now, for a while there it took everyone some time to figure out what exactly an Internet browser was. Today, many of us can’t imagine what life was like before we had Google. These days, if you need information on any topic under the sun, you simply “Google” it! What would we ever do without Google?

When looking to buy the latest tech stock, investors [you] need to scrutinize the product and the unique ability it offers to its users. Google is a great example of a “killer app” that revolutionized the Internet.

So what’s Microvision’s “killer app”?

It’s the “Disruptive Technology”; that can bring about massive shifts in “technology paradigm” and “social paradigm”. Each of the five products that Microvision is offering has the potential to cause massive paradigm shift in its own space of product applications.

What makes Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine technology as "Killer app" in simple terms?

1. Always in-focus image that needs no adjustment when on the move or when moving to change the projected image size… due to inherent feature of laser projection.

2. Longer projection periods per battery charge… by switching-off the laser light source during periods of dark picture segments.

3. Cool to the touch and no waste heat generated… due to modulating lasers as light source.

4. Large projected images [up to 100”] in widescreen aspect ratio of 16:9.

5. High resolution image [848x480] at 10 lumen brightness… with pathways to high definition images at 20 lumens or more brightness.

6. Dramatic cost reduction [with huge profit margin improvements] as the laser light technology matures and economies of scale are achieved.

7. Small physical size that starts out small and gets even smaller from one generation to the next.

The PicoP Display Engine can be embedded in hundreds of different products representing a huge market share for entire product line-up. It has the potential of adding billions of new dollars to Microvision—expanding what I like to call the “halo effect” from the PDE to the rest of Microvision product line of applications that are currently under development.

Yes, investing in technology can get complicated. Many advisors compare the stock price to the company’s earnings and cash flow, and then look at earnings growth trends and the company’s debt levels in comparison to its competitors. This is some in-depth analysis for the average investor!

Well, Microvision has very little earnings and cash flow from current sales; so you have nothing to analyze. Consider yourself in good company: Billionaire Warren Buffet doesn’t invest in technology because he doesn’t understand the fundamentals of the business. That is why he has missed out on billions of dollars in potential profits from the likes of e-bay, Google and Apple. So, if you’re waiting for revenue and current cash flow from your Microvision investment, there is none for all analytical purposes.

But that will change in the next Qtr when the earnings report will show increasing sales of SHOWwx projector from the US, Europe and Asia Pacific region.

When it comes to emerging technology from companies with small capitalization, don’t do what Warren Buffet does. Do your own DD and then take a small position in Microvision for its emerging technology and huge profit potential in the next 5 years.

Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range.

Here’s an educated projection…

• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]

• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]

• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units

• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units

• OEM price: $90 per PicoP Display Engine

• Revenue: $4 billion

• Net Profit Margin: 40%

• Net Profit: $1.6 billion

• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]

• Interest Expense: $0 million

• Interest Income: $20 million

• Tax: $220million

• Depreciation: non cash and very small

• Amortization: non cash and very small

• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion

• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]

• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company

• Price Per Share: $390 per share

In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Breakeven Expected at the End of 1st Qtr 2011

2010-03-23T19:12:00.003-04:00

For the first time in a long time I’m very confident that Microvision could have the breakeven operation by the end of 1st Qtr of 2011. And that’s much earlier than that projected by Oppenheimer in their recent report update of February 2010.

I have followed this company for nearly 12 years... but did not start investing in it until 2007, because they did not have a plan for building revenue until they brought on Alex Tokman. Microvision had all the symptoms of being an interesting science project with very little else to do with monetizing the technology… but all that changed after the 2006 re-organization when Tokman was appointed as the CEO. Many of you would agree that he is not there to build a science experiment… he is there to build a solid business based on solid technology, wrapped up as tightly in IP as a 200+ patent portfolio would allow.

The reason I mention Oppenheimer report as the point of reference… because, it is perhaps the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis of Microvision’s business and financial model by an institutional analyst. Even though I don’t agree with their projections of Microvision revenues and profit margins, I don’t see any reason to pick a fight over numbers that none of us can be hundred percent sure… one way or the other.

One more thing…
Recently, someone suggested “brevity as a virtue”. So, from now on, unless I’m writing the next chapter to my book, I plan on presenting my findings, research, analysis and conclusions in this very virtuous manner... that is, as briefly as possible.

So, here we go...
There is confluence of evidence that Microvision has launched its laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx in the US market on March 8th, 2010. It is also evident that SHOWwx is being sold in the US; directly from Microvision website...

http://www.microvision.com/displayground/
http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/index.html

Now, the next question is about profit margins, revenues and the timeline for operational “breakeven”... where the operating profits sustain the operating cost on a monthly basis.

Looking at all the available information─ the annual report, the latest earnings report and the Q&A from the most recent earnings conference call ─ my analysis shows the breakeven Qtr as Q1 of 2011.

Here’s why…

First Qtr of 2011

Total Revenue: $30.95 million

Contract Revenue: $955,000… based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 15% per Qtr growth
Product Revenue: $30,000,000… based on 60,000 SHOWwx sold in Q1, 2011 at $500 bundled price with VGA doc.

Cost of Revenue: $18.487 million

Cost of Contract Revenue: $487,000
Cost of Product Revenue: $18,000,000… COG at 60% [40% margins with green laser cost at $90 or less]. Assumes direct & affiliate on-line store sales.

Gross Profit: $12.469 million

Total Operating Expenses: $11.975 million

Research & Development: $7.806 million… based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 1% growth.
Sales, General & Admin: $4.169 million…based on 4th Qtr 2009 and projected at 2% growth.
Others: $0

Operating Income (Loss): $494,000

Net Income from Continuing Operations: $500,000

Other Income/Expenses Net: $0
Earnings before Interest & Taxes: $494,000
Interest Income: $24,000
Interest Expenses: $18,000

Income before Tax: $$500,000

Income Tax Expenses: $0

Minority Interest/Other Expenses: $0

Total Non Recurring Events: $0

Discontinued Operations: $0
Extraordinary Items: $0
Effect of Accounting Changes: $0
Other Items: $0

Net Income (Loss): $500,000

Net Income Applicable to Common: $500,000

Shares Outstanding: 90.136 million… includes 5 million share worth additional funding in August 2010 and the rest for stock options.

Earnings Per Share: $0.006

I am not going to attempt to persuade you; towards my way of thinking. However, I just feel that this is a very different point in time for Microvision, where a real product has been launched… and that will change the way information and entertainment is displayed in the mobile world. There are other companies that are getting these pico products out there... but, I see their product introduction to the market as the “teaser horses". And as “Sam” from the Yahoo Message Board says…

“... if you know anything about horse breeding; you do not want to come back as a teaser horse. Sure you get into the breeding shed, but even if the mare accepts the jump; poor Picho still loses out as he's fitted with a leather apron to ensure that his efforts, in advance of the waiting stud, remain chaste.”

Is Microvision the "stud" of the stable?

Well, we just have to wait and see when we get our hands on that SHOWwx on order!

When all is said and done, in the end, I see Microvision’s laser PDEs to dominate pico projection technology… and I have seen nothing from any of the other companies that would dissuade me from this view.

Do the delays frustrate the heck out of me?
Yes!

Do I wish I had my own SHOWwx months ago to use in presentations...and gift them to my friends and family?
Yes!

As far as missed deadlines go, the biggest issue was Corning misguided judgment that they would have green lasers in quantity 2 years ago… a major failure in projecting the production timeline. I, for one did not drain my brain worrying about the exact definition of the end of summer launch in 2009. I have seen new product releases before and I am well aware that if there is a situation where Murphy's Law might apply… then the September 2009 launch was one of them.

I’m very encouraged that Corning has finally overcome the G-1000 green laser production issues… and the second generation G-2000 is coming along nicely for production in Q4 of 2010. I am also very encouraged that OSRAM is making good progress and has started shipping small quantities of green laser to Microvision. It will not surprise me at all, if Microvision were to announce the Osram shipping good news any day soon.

If Osram (and Corning) can overcome the last mile quality production hurdles, we will see validation in a cell phone… with product available in the market by early 2011. Frankly, I do not care who is or was first to market. I think we will see some announcements before the end of April/May this year to help support the stock price and perhaps even push up the pps to next level… in the $5 to $6 range.

Some of you may think that my analysis is somewhat pessimistic… while the others may consider it way too optimistic. I can understand your rationale… because to this day, I still battle with my optimism and pessimism on a daily basis.

I would not say that the current stock pps is so great that it represents the exuberance of the year 2000… the Dot.com era. Nor does it represent the enthusiasm of a long waited product validation and launch. The current price, I believe, is based on a combination of facts that are still not very clear and people hedging bets that they will reap a significant reward by investing at lower levels. The volume has been up and I cannot detect any significant profit taking at this point. The MVIS story has substance in product and potential for the long term investors.

Obviously there are several companies that have committed to MVIS in the form of contracts to distribute the SHOWwx. I would find it hard to believe that these companies would make such a commitment without some degree of due diligence in both the supply and demand equation. Without going into details, let me say that I do not think a price of $550 for SHOWwx is too much… although it is a lot.

Profit from the SHOWwx is a short term cash flow gig and has never been the driving factor for the company's long term goal. We all know that the embedded PicoP─ in all things digital─ is the “holy grail”. However, that thinking may be changing considering the fact that SHOWwx does have many may applications and once second generation green laser production is up and the cost goes down the SHOWwx could be very profitable… especially when it is sold directly from the company’s on-line store.

I strongly believe that Microvision could be on its way to breakeven operation… as early as at the end of Q1 of 2011.

Anant Goel
PS: Thanks to "Sam" from YMB for letting me use some of his words and quotes.

http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Pico Projectors Hit the Commercial Market

2010-03-17T16:42:00.000-04:00

That is the title of a trade journal article published by Electronics Weekly…

Pico projectors hit the commercial market
Richard Wilson
Tuesday 16 March 2010 11:18

Pico projectors are set for a massive jump in shipments during the next four years as they hit a number of commercial markets including mobile phones, according to analyst iSuppli.

Shipments will rise to more than three million units in 2013, up from less than 50,000 units in 2009.

In the middle of last year, Texas Instruments demonstrated 3D-ready projectors and lamp-free data projectors based on the company's DLP chip technology.

The chip uses an array of millions of micro-mirrors which can be switched at high speed, which enables the simultaneous display of left-eye and right-eye images required for the brain to create a 3D picture.

It is the rapid refresh rate of the DLP chip which supports 3D viewing.

According to TI, as many as 30 manufacturers will have projectors on the market soon, including BenQ, InFocus, LightSpeed, Mitsubishi, Optoma, Sharp and ViewSonic.

Continues…

*****

After reading this article, I could not help wonder if this was a trade journal article on the subject of pico projectors or an infomercial for Texas Instruments, Samsung, Mitsubishi and other advertisers of Electronics Weekly.

First, here’s the link to the article that I’m talking about…
http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2010/03/16/48208/pico-projectors-hit-the-commercial-market.htm

This article is so superficial in its coverage that it not only lacks depth but also the breadth in its coverage. What surprised me most were the many inaccuracies in the article and shockingly there was no mention of Microvision that launched the world’s first laser based PicoP™ projector SHOWwx in September of 2009… and most recently, on March 8th, Microvision started selling their laser based pico projector to the US customers.

Don’t you think it is shocking to see that the main author [Richard Wilson] and iSuppli projection analyst Sanju Khatri wrote this article about pico projectors but completely ignored the existence of Microvision and its laser pico projector SHOWwx? I’m sure you know, like the millions of Internet savvy global consumers do, that Microvision’s laser pico projector SHOWwx won the CES 2010 “Last Gadget Standing” award in January… and the MacWorld 2010 “Best of Show” award in February.

Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP Display Engine technology exists today and beats the competition from 3M [LED/LcoS technology] and TI [LED/DLP technology] in most all respects.

First take a look at quality of the projected images from SHOWwx and then look at its specifications… and you will see why Microvision’s Laser/MEMS based PicoP projector is so much better than the competition.

Here’s the link to SHOWwx video clip…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0

Here’s the side by side comparison with the competition…
http://myfotospace.my.funpic.de/Comparison-of-PicoP.png

Here’s the list of differentiating features of SHOWwx…
http://www.microvision.com/showwx/specs.html

In the embedded market space, I don’t see any of the competitors coming close to Microvision in this race… not even Taxes Instruments with their power guzzling million-micromirrors based pico projector. The likes of 3M and Displaytech will never get down to acceptable levels of size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost requirements… as they will have the “gating issues”. Pico projectors that use million micromirrors or LcoS panels [with lenses and optics] just can’t cut the mustard in terms of physical size, power, waste heat, auto-focus and cost.

I’m sure there will be many players in the pico projection space... like Displaytech with FLCOS, 3M with LcoS, and TI with DLP technologies.

However, no matter how you slice-it or dice-it, Microvision has, in my opinion, no competition in the laser based “embedded” pico projection space... not TI… and certainly not 3M.

Microvision’s laser PicoP Display Engine will lead the rat pack because of the following:

• Small form factor that allows room to add additional built-in functionality. The competition starts-out big and can only get bigger.

• Power consumption will always be the differentiating factor. Two to three hours of use between battery charges is always more desirable than the ones that last an hour or less. Extra power pack(s) in the standalone version will make the competition at par with Microvision’s SHOWwx... but there is a high probability that the user will opt for longer run on batteries. How often do you remember scrambling for a power pack when you need one?

Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine produces virtually zero heat due to lasers being used as the light source and also due to on/off switching of lasers during dark image segments. Competing pico projection technologies of others produce enough waste heat to cook eggs... sunny side up for sure.

• “A wide angle view means that Microvision’s PDE can show a wider screen at closer distance!” This is a very important differentiation as compared to the “rest” in the market. With Microvision's PDE you get…

"A wider image [80 inch from 7 feet away, for example] from a close distance… the image is brighter and sharper… colors are more vibrant… and the image is always in focus."

• Laser based PicoP Display Engines will always have projected image in focus… regardless of the distance [from the screen] or mobility of the projector itself. Try focusing a projector every time you move [with the projector] or change the distance from the screen to change the size of the image.

• Microvision’s PDE has better image quality and is sharper [per lumen] as compared to other projectors using “diffused” light sources the competition is using. The use of diffused light source, like lamps or LED, causes the “torch effect”… where the image is brighter in the center with darker outside.

• One other problem the panel display based pico projectors have is the black outline for each pixel that shows up in their images. Laser based PicoP Display Engine do not have that problem and as such projected images will always be brighter and sharper.

• Microvision’s PDE can go from 12” to 200” diagonal image size. None of the competitor has [so far] been able to match what Microvision is offering.

• Microvision’s PDE projects bright and vivid color with 5000:1 contrast ratio.

• Microvision’ PDE projects bright and vivid color images without motion blur because of its inherent fast refresh feature from laser light source.

• Microvision’s PDE has better resolution [at 848x480] as compared to the competing technologies from 3M and TI.

• Microvision’s PicoP Display Engine is progressing nicely on upwards pathway to higher brightness of 20 lumens using the second generation green laser [G-2000] from Corning.

After the CEATEC 2009 expo, engadget had this to say about the first generation SHOWwx…

"We stopped at Microvision booth at CEATEC in order to take a look at what makes the world's first laser based pico projector so special and we can honestly say that the picture was pretty stunning."

Here’s the link engadget report…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/06/video-microvisions-laser-based-show-wx-pico-projector-shines-a/

Now just imagine what their comments would be like when they see the second generation SHOWwx [and PDEs for embedded applications] with 20 lumens of brightness and HD resolution.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Viral Marketing Channel Strategy at Work

2010-03-11T14:00:00.001-05:00

I don’t think I’m alone in saying that …

“Viral Marketing is a valid distribution channel in this Internet age and should be part of every company’s product and services marketing strategy.”

In case of Microvision, the concept of creating VIP membership is in effect the company’s viral marketing strategy... and it is already in place.

The viral effect will come into more aggressive play once the VIPs [about 10,000 of us] get our SHOWwx PicoP projectors. Each one of us has at least 100 people in our center of influence. So, over 1 million people [10,000 x 100 = 1,000,000] will get to know SHOWwx first hand from us... the VIPs. And those 1 million people have, I'm sure, 50 people in their center of influence. Well, now that’s 50 million people that would come to know about SHOWwx and Microvision... the company behind this amazing laser PicoP projection technology.

In about six months there could be over a billion people that have been touched by SHOWwx… and have also come to know about Microvision.

Here’s another example of super-charged viral marketing at work…

One gentleman investor of Microvision, Mr. Henderson, bought his SHOWwx laser PicoP projector from Spain and paid a premium for it. Now that is the act of a highly motivated investor who wanted to, as part of his due diligence, see the product first hand to continue or not, I guess, with his investment in the MVIS stock.

In summary, this is what he did after he received his SHOWwx in the mail…

“He received his SHOWwx from the distributor in Spain yesterday or the day before. He then single handedly produced a You Tube video of his experience with SHOWwx and then published it over the Internet for us to experience and share his enthusiasm.”

A picture speaks a thousand words. So, without further ado, here’s the link to the video…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQMmMzV3WD0

That's an example of highly motivated and focused viral marketing. In this case, Mr. Henderson has gone beyond his center of influence [of say hundreds] to touch tens of thousands on the Internet.

Bravo Mr. Henderson, you just set the viral marketing rolling in the second gear.

At this stage, Microvision can further enhance this viral marketing strategy by adding the following programs to its marketing arsenal...

• An affiliate program to embrace thousands of web site owners... by offering a 3% commission on such web site originated sales.

• An "opt-in" e-mail marketing campaign to a few hundred million... similar to the e-mail that was sent to VIPs recently.

• Sign-up network marketers like "Market America" that has over 500,000 networking sales reps.

That's a good start to viral marketing channel... and it doesn't have to cost much to implement.

Results could be wildly huge… in terms of product demand created and the enhanced margins opportunity due to limited intervention by the middlemen.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010

2010-03-10T10:57:00.001-05:00

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
On Monday March 8, 2010, 4:20 pm EST

Microvision Announces 2009 Results and Plans For 2010

Company Announces U.S. Introduction of SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector, Availability of Second Commercial Supply for Green Laser, New Purchase Orders, and Additions to Management Team

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today reported operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2009 and its plans for 2010.

Continued…

*****

Here’s the link to the full earnings report…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100308006744&newsLang=en

Last three years, especially the year 2009, has been the most frustrating period for Microvision corporate management… mainly due to delays caused by over optimistic green laser production schedule by Corning. However, after 30 months of delay due to technical and production problems, the issues are finally behind us and Microvision has officially launched the world first laser based PicoP projector in the US today.

After the market close on March 8th, Microvision management presented the quarterly/yearly earnings report. After looking at the details of SHOWwx laser PicoP projector launch from this morning and then listing to earnings conference call, I could not help but feel that today is the day when Microvision really went public with an IPO.

Microvision: Goes Public with an IPO… March 8th 2010

Now that I have your attention, consider this…

If Microvision were to have an IPO right after the SHOWwx launch in the US today followed by a very bullish earnings conference call… the IPO price would be more like $20 if not higher.

We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.

Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, huge backlog, ramping-up production forecasts, improving margins, and glowing recognition by industry; like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.60.

Looks like the shorts have you all spooked, doubting yourself, and in knots over in-decision.

One of the issues, if you would call it that, the shorts will “harp on” and have you believe is about low future revenues and insignificant margins.

Well, let’s set the record straight here, shall we…

Many folks don’t realize that the green laser unit forecasts Alex presented at the CC; they do not include any green laser contribution from Osram. Osram green lasers have been validated but production quantities are not yet shipping in any significant quantities… and as such are not part of the unit number forecast presented at the conference call.

Osram green lasers are the surprise factor; both in terms of higher production volumes─ higher than what Alex has projected from Corning and dramatic overall cost reduction due to cheaper Osram green lasers.

The good news─ in the short term, that Alex talked about in his closing remarks, in my opinion, is all about Osram starting to ship production quantities of green lasers as early as the last week of March. Osram green lasers are much cheaper and have much better yields. That’s the surprise factor that Alex alluded to in his closing remarks at the CC.

Be aware of the competitors, shorts and unscrupulous stock traders; when they bash the SHOWwx revenue and profit margins to justify their agenda… whatever form or shape it takes.

Consider this…

• Profit margins on SHOWwx that have been shipped are better than what you may think [or are made to believe] by just looking at 4th Qtr “product sale revenue” vs. the “product COG” numbers. First, the initial batch of product shipped is very small… few hundreds at the most, and that is not a large enough sample to base future trends.

Second, the cost of about 50 or so demo units in the hands and homes of Microvision executives has cost but no revenue. That hurts the revenue numbers and skews the COG numbers as much higher than they really are.

• Profit margins and revenues will dramatically increase─ over and above what they truly are at present, as soon as Osram starts shipping their better and cheaper green lasers in production quantities… as early as the end of March.

• Profit margins are dramatically higher [over 300%] on the Limited Edition SHOWwx that are for sale in the US today.

• Profit margins are substantially higher [over 100%] on the Commercial Edition SHOWwx that will be for sale in the US on March 24th.

There is no better way to say it, than to say it as it really is…

“Alex Tokman, in his closing remarks at the CC, alluded to two pieces of good news coming up: one in the short term [like in weeks] and the other in the mid term."

The short term good news, in my opinion, is about Osram shipping production quantities of their green lasers to Microvision… and that will more than double the forecasted SHOWwx quantities that can be shipped at much better profit margins.

In closing…

Be aware of the competitors, shorts, manipulators, and the unscrupulous operators that would like you to believe that the future revenues and profit margins as insignificant… because, by having you believe that and then manipulate you to sell would serve their agenda to short Microvision.

So why don’t you guys just wake-up, believe in yourselves and stop playing into the hands of unscrupulous shorts.

Be an educated investor and go about making some serious money in the near future.

Stop playing for nickels and dimes… only kids do that with too much time on their hands.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: SHOWwx Laser PicoP Projector Launched in the US

2010-03-09T11:24:00.000-05:00

Press Release
Source: Microvision, Inc.
Monday March 8, 2010, 6:30 am EST

Microvision SHOWWX Laser Pico Projector Available for Sale to U.S. Customers

Special Limited Edition Bundle Available Today

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), a leading developer of ultra-miniature projection display products announced today the opening of its web store for U.S. customers for the SHOWWX™ laser pico projector. Microvision is introducing two product offerings in the U.S. -- the Standard Edition SHOWWX and the Limited Edition SHOWWX promotional bundle.

Web Store Opens for U.S. Sales of the Standard Edition SHOWWX on March 24

Microvision plans to begin taking on-line orders through its web store at 12 noon, EST, starting on March 24th for its award-winning SHOWWX laser pico projector. The "Made for iPod®" SHOWWX laser pico projector Standard Edition comes with accessories and an optional VGA dock to connect to a variety of mobile devices. The iPhone®-sized Standard Edition is priced at $549.

Special One Time Limited Edition SHOWWX Bundle Promotion Begins Today

To celebrate the introduction of the world’s first laser pico projector based on Microvision’s PicoP® technology in the United States, Microvision is offering U.S. customers a one-time opportunity to purchase a special Limited Edition SHOWWX bundle. The Limited Edition SHOWWX bundle is for the technology enthusiast and ultra-mobile media connoisseur. This special bundle comes with a personalized splash screen bearing the name of its owner, SHOWWX with 'Limited Edition' insignia, certificate of authenticity and a SHOWWX VGA dock plus other accessories not included with the Standard Edition. The Microvision web store with details about the Limited Edition SHOWWX bundle will open starting today at 12 noon, EST, www.microvision.com/showwx. The SHOWWX Limited Edition bundle is priced at $999.

The SHOWWX is the world’s first laser-based pico projector that delivers premium image quality generated by Microvision's PicoP® laser projection technology. Features include a native resolution of WVGA (848 X 480), ultra-simple plug-and-play use, fiddle-free infinite focus, very high-contrast ratio, and bright vivid colors generated from ultra-miniature laser light sources. Users simply connect the SHOWWX to any mobile device with TV or VGA out (iPod, laptop, etc.) and project DVD-quality images from a mobile device, up to 200” across, depending on the ambient light.

*****

Here’s the link…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100308005609&newsLang=en

Microvision’s concept of selling “Limited Edition” for much higher margins is a stroke of genius.

First, the difference between the cost of Limited Edition [at $999] and the Commercial Edition [at $549] is only three hundred dollars… after you back out the cost of additional features and accessories bundled with the Limited Edition SHOWwx laser PicoP projector.

For extra three hundred dollars, you get the SHOWwx laser projector weeks sooner than the Commercial Edition product. That in itself is worth the extra three hundred dollars to someone that must have access to the competing product [from Microvision]… because few weeks matter a lot in a high profile marketplace when billions in market share are at stake.

In other words, the targeted customer for the higher priced Limited Edition is not you and me─ the cost conscious consumer, but it’s the deep pocketed competition and supply chain partners of Microvision. And then of course there will be the foreigners loaded with cheap US dollars, MVIS investors, tech media companies, consultants and sales executives with laptops, and the basket full of tech junkies. To this list you can also add thousands of tech connoisseurs worldwide.

Here’s why it is such a brilliant idea…

• With so much anticipation building over the last 3 years; in and around the Microvision supply chain partners that they would be the first ones who would use cheap US dollars to get their hands on the Limited Edition… as soon as they can get it… and not weeks later, just for the sake of saving three hundred dollars.

• Microvision competition will jump on the opportunity to buy one “pronto” to take it apart to see what it is that would become their worst nightmare in the near future. If you are a smart competitor [to Microvision] you would want to see your competition’s product right away… and not weeks later, just for the sake of saving three hundred dollars when there are billions at stake.

Limited Edition at $999 will be a huge success… a sell out.

Most of the buyers [so it seems] are the competition, the supply chain partners of Microvision, the foreigners loaded with cheap US dollars, and then there are many MVIS investors, some from the tech media companies, consultants and sales executives, and tech junkies worldwide.

Sales are brisk and picking-up momentum.

How long does it take to sell-off 500 Limited Edition units… really?

After the earnings conference call, we expect to hear additional good news shortly… like in weeks, in the words of Alex Tokman.

Then there is additional good news in the offing… like in couple of short months.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: To Host Q4 and Full Year 2009 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call

2010-03-07T13:05:00.000-05:00

Press Release
Source: Microvision
Wednesday March 3, 2010, 9:00 am EST

Microvision to Host Q4 and Full Year 2009 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microvision (NASDAQ:MVIS) announced today that it plans to host a conference call on March 8, 2010 at 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT to discuss its fourth quarter and full year 2009 financial and operating results and current business operations.

Participants may join the conference call by dialing (866) 770-7129 (for U.S. participants) or (617) 213-8067 (for International participants) ten minutes prior to the start of the conference. The conference pass-code number is 87213505. Additionally, the call will be broadcast over the Internet and can be accessed from the company’s web site at www.microvision.com/investors. The webcast and information needed to access the telephone replay will be available through the same link approximately one hour after the conference call concludes.

*****

Here’s the link to the Press Release…
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100303005481&newsLang=en

Now if you go to Microvision’s blog site─ The Displayground, you have the opportunity to post your questions that you may want to ask the management. There is no guarantee that your question will be answered; but you may want to give it a shot anyway…

http://www.microvision.com/displayground/

Here’re some questions that many of us, the humbled investors of Microvision, would like to ask.

Pardon the style of my asking questions… but it does make it easier, to answer simple questions without much room for misunderstanding or ambiguity…

• Osram has started shipping production quality SHG green lasers to Microvision… no?

• Back orders, as stated in the 3rd Qtr earnings report, are now fulfilled… no?

• Can we expect another round of funding in July 2010… yes?

• Do you think that SHOWwx will be launched in the US any time soon… no?

• Are there any other plans, besides the ever elusive product sales, to monetize the various technologies in Microvision IP portfolio… no?

For the first time, in a long time, I’m completely stymied at finding any kind of news leak at Microvision… that is, now just before this Q4’09 earnings conference call.

It is very unusual for Microvision, and its supply chain partners, to be so tight lipped about giving out any meaningful information in a discernible manner.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Discernible:
(adjective) clear, obvious, apparent, plain, visible, distinct, noticeable, recognizable, detectable, observable, perceptible, distinguishable, appreciable, discoverable

Microvision: Stock at the End of its Transition Phase

2010-03-06T00:37:00.001-05:00

Every growth stock falls into 1 of 3 categories…

1. The Romance Phase

2. The Transition Phase

3. The Reality Phase

Most growth stocks tend to pass through three phases of growth… romance, transition and reality. By knowing which phase a stock is in, you can quickly determine whether the profits are just beginning… or the well is drying up fast. Needless to say, this can make the decision to buy, sell or hold significantly easier. And its decisions like these that will make or break your success in investing.

You may say that in case of Microvision, the romance is gone and the transition is at an end, and the reality of situation [green laser issue] has become clear. And in your opinion in this phase, the company’s entire financial future depends on the availability and the cost of green lasers. Since the company has made no effort to incorporate any other type of light source to power its PicoP Display Engine, the core of its entire product line, it is fair to say that Microvision will thrive or perish by the green laser sword.

Some of you have lived through the romance phase, which peaked in year 2000 with the MVIS stock trading well over $63… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology. Those that did not cash out after the romance phase, the most profitable phase, and are still holding the MVIS stock and they have battle scars to prove their passage through the three phases of growth in the life of a company. Now we are at the tail end of the transition phase, when blemishes appear and public’s perception of the company starts to diminish.

If you feel that we all have made a mistake in believing and staying too long in MVIS stock and are in the same boat at this point in time? We all have, for whatever the reason, stayed little too long in this stock and are now paying the price of dealing with uncertain future and muted enthusiasm of a product launch… that revolves around a core component from green laser supply chain! If that’s what you believe, and can think with a cool head and not point fingers, then continue reading, as I would like to share some facts, figures and analysis?

Microvision story is not over yet. It is, however, certainly the end of the romance phase and we are now successfully transitioning to the reality phase. If you dig deeper, you will find that it is just the beginning that is based on reality of Microvision’s financial and cost structure and will resume its momentum to renewed success based on improving availability and cheaper cost of green lasers… the Achilles heel to Microvision’s financial success. This may sound like a wish full conclusion to Microvision saga… but fortunately that happens to be the conclusion of my analysis based on findings of facts and figures.

So stay tuned and let’s continue with our analysis…

The Romance Phase: is the most profitable phase by far and is the one that you’ll want to focus on… that is, if you were lucky enough to be around during the early life stages of Microvision in year 2000. It’s in this phase that a fortune can be amassed very quickly, long before most investors are even aware that the company exists. Yet at some point, the stock’s price and its Relative Performance (RP) line will reach all-time highs. This tells you the Romance in the stock has peaked. This is when most analysts, if there are any following the stock, would recommend selling it. In case of MVIS stock, the first Romance peak took place in March of year 2000 when the stock traded in the $63 plus range.

The second Romance peak took place in June of 2007 when the management announced “Agreement with Motorola”. At the height of this Romance peak, the MVIS stock traded in the $6 range. It happened too quick [in less than two months] and the RP line indicated that it had not peaked and there was lot more momentum left for the stock to go still higher... to over $10 or so we believed. Also, the pico projector sector was just in initial stages of taking-off... as we know is happening right now. It took us a few months to realize the issues with SHG green laser technology and the resulting cost and supply constraints.

In hindsight, we may call it our greed that made us stay in this stock too long or may be it was our collective belief that there was more good news to come. How could it all start, take-off and crash in less than three months? Well, it did and the reasons are too well known to all of us so I won’t repeat them here.

The Transition Phase: can last from few months to several years. In case of Microvision, the Transition Phase started in September of 2007 when I first wrote about the technical issues that Corning was having with their SHG green lasers. This is when the blemishes appeared and the public’s perception of the stock started to diminish. It’s at this stage in the life of a company, like Microvision, that the company’s technology may fumble, the earnings may stumble [if there were any], the cash flow may turn negative [or cash burn may accelerate], the financing may disappear, the flaws in business growth strategy start showing-up in negative revenue growth [or as loss of revenue] and other issues start popping-up such as legal, financial, and key employee departures, etc.

Sooner or later the issues will get resolved and the company’s earnings will grow again… but only after the stock has bottomed and then, after an excruciating period, has started its next major advance.

Now we are at the tail end of the “Transition Phase”. During the Transition Phase, the blemishes [like technical problems with green lasers] appeared and public’s perception of the company diminished to such low levels as to bring the MVIS stock down to $0.80 in March 2009.

Many of the red-hot lovers who romanced MVIS on the way up have left the stock, and it's their selling pressures, driven by reduced perceptions, that have been pushing the MVIS stock down… and the bear market of 2008 hasn't helped, either. Every time a diehard long who had sworn to hold the stock forever gives up in disgust, the stock is pushed a little lower.

It's not the company's fault that Corning had repeatedly failed to deliver on the SHG green laser, a core component for making laser PicoP projectors. If the delay was reasonable, and not the 30 months, the MVIS stock would have traded rationally, based on earnings from a potentially gigantic global market. This stock would have been nowhere near as low as the 80 cents last March, and it would be certainly traded higher now than it currently is… at $2.69 and excruciating to hold it at this level.

But stock prices are determined by investors. And investors are people. People who fall-in and fall-out of love! People who buy with visions of profits and sell in disgust when their dreams are dashed! People who drive stocks to irrational heights and then sell them to irrational depths! That's what makes investing a challenge ... and very profitable, if you know what you're doing.

The Reality Phase: With Romance gone and the transition at end, the reality of the situation has become clear. In this final phase, the Reality Phase, the company could have taken one of the two roads… the road to renewed success… or the road to oblivion.

Microvision has struggled for over the last 30 months to deal with the core component─ green laser─ supply issue during the Transition Phase. All through this phase, Microvision managed to stay funded and fully staffed to aggressively pursue product development and continue with research to enlarge its intellectual property rights.

Finally, Corning has resolved its green laser yield issues and is now ramping production. Osram is coming on-line rapidly to become the second source of SHG green lasers… with a better, cheaper and higher yielding product. During the Transition Phase, Microvision management made some hard decisions to control cost, proactively raise funding─ even though it was considered unpopular with the investors, and aggressively pursued R&D to enlarge its IP portfolio and took measures to protect its intellectual property.

Over this last cycle, in my opinion, the MVIS stock price has bottomed at $1.96. The Transition Phase is over and the Reality Phase has kicked-in, or it will on March 8th after the earnings conference call.

It’s then; when analysis of the stock should become a little easier for investors who base their decisions on fundamentals. If the company's sales and earnings are growing, as I expect them to do very rapidly, the stock will rise, too. But it will do it in a far more rational manner, reflecting the reality of the company's sales and earnings growth potential over the next few years.

Before I leave you, consider this…

We are truly at the turning point in the history of Microvision, that some may call the “Validation Phase”. Because, that’s what the commercial release and the three purchase orders─ from global consumer electronic OEMs and the World leading mobile phone operator, represent …

• Validation of Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine technology, its quality, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of performance and quality of PicoP display engine at the core of the world’s first laser based PicoP projector SHOWwx.

• Validation of Corning green laser technology, its reliability, and a viable commercial fabrication & production milestone.

• Validation of technical and performance superiority of laser based PicoP projector as compared to other two technologies on the market… like DLP from Texas Instruments and LcoS for 3M.

• Validation of consumer preference for Microvision’s PicoP projector: wide screen, high definition, longer battery life, 2D video with fast refresh without motion blur, small physical size, always in focus images for all of video [static, streaming, and broadcast] communications, and no waste heat generation.

• Validation of acceptable safety standard for laser based PicoP projectors in consumer use and adoption.

• Validation of speckle as a non-issue and as virtually non-existent with Microvision’s laser based PicoP display engine.

• Validation of fundamental design flaws of Microvision competitors: low resolution images, faded colors, short battery runs, longer throw distance, and requiring constant manual focus adjustments… and the waste heat, hot enough to cook eggs sunny-side-up.

• Validation of Microvision as a product company rather than just a R&D house with 200 issued and filed patents and with many more to come.

• Validation of global consumer electronic OEMs recognizing laser as a viable and superior alternative to DLP, LcoS and FLOCS technology.

• Validation of growing demand for Pico projectors from carriers and content providers on a global basis.

• Validation of consumer demand for quality Pico projectors.

• Validation of growing demand for green lasers and the ensuing competition in green laser product arena.

Microvision is ready as a supplier of laser Pico projectors to consumers and Pico display engines to its OEM partners… and offers the best of breed Pico display technology.

Is Microvision ready for prime time SHOWwx time and worthy of your investment dollars, consider this…

Consider the RISK vs. REWARD:

First, read the transcript of the Report “The Next Big Thing”. There are 40 pages to this very well written report and will take you an hour or so to read… but it is well worth it. Here's the link...

http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/21Century/TheNextBigThing.pdf

After reading this report on Microvision stock opportunity, you will understand why the Risk vs. Reward is compelling and the stock remains a strong buy for over 100 fold increase in price per share (PPS) in the next 4 to 5 years… by the end of 2014.

Five years from now in 2014, the stock could easily trade in the $300 to $500 range. Here’s an educated projection…

• Worldwide Market Size: 2 billion units [cell phones, laptops, smartphones, iPods, iPhones, iPads, camcorders, digital cameras, gaming devices, and mobile TV/Projectors etc.]

• Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units [wearable see thru displays]

• Market Adoption Rate: 10%... 300 million units

• Microvision Market share: 15% of 300 million units… 45 million units

• OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine

• Revenue: $4 billion

• Net Profit Margin: 40%

• Net Profit: $1.6 billion

• EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.5 billion [with operating expenses at $100 million]

• Interest Expense: $0 million

• Interest Income: $20 million

• Tax: $220million

• Depreciation: non cash and very small

• Amortization: non cash and very small

• Net Operating Income: $1.3 billion

• Earning Per Share: $13 on a fully diluted basis [100 million shares]

• Price Earning Ratio: 30 for a hyper growth company

• Price Per Share: $390 per share

In my book, the “Risk” is insignificant [may be 2% per year interest in treasury bills as the lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next year 4 to 5 years… and that is on top of 4 times the money you have already made if you aggressively bought MVIS stock [at 80 cents] when recommended in March 2009.

Alex Tokman, CEO of Microvision, said in his March 6th earnings conference call: "the market demand for PicoP Display Engines will be larger than the supply."

This projection for 2014 could actually be low compared to the reality of the market place [like selling SHOWwx and its derivatives directly to US consumers] that will start to un-fold in the months ahead.

It’s ironic how we as investors act sometimes…

We chased MVIS stock to $63 during the “Romance Phase”; which peaked in year 2000… at a time when there were no real products, and just a few patents on a very promising laser based MEMS image scanning technology.

Today, with all the technology and production issues behind us─ with validation at hand, huge patent portfolio, OEM and Mobile phone carrier customer purchase orders, and recognition by industry like CES and MacWorld awards… we are now debating to buy or wait to buy the MVIS stock at $2.69.

What, am I missing something here?

Don't tell me it has something to do with hot milk!

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage (Report Update February 8, 2010)

2010-03-02T09:40:00.003-05:00

On December 11th, Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Microvision with a “Perform” rating and also published an analyst’s report.

Oppenheimer defines their “Perform” rating as...

“Stock expected to perform in line with S&P 500 within the next 12 – 18 months.”

Here’s the link to my two part post on the subject…
http://mirro7.blogspot.com/2009/12/microvision-oppenheimer-initiates.html

On February 8th, Oppenheimer published a ten page report update…

http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/oEaRS45DzWrf776_EvDxFdQxDCDKAxpUt-kPuLlAFvD8X4pGQvzvIwHqu5SjjCcOzoGxeJr8_SXxFGRHVugyKt7siylf/MVIS_OPP_0210.pdf

In depth reading of this report update is certainly recommended. However, here’s the summary…

EQUITY RESEARCH

COMPANY UPDATE

February 8, 2010
TECHNOLOGY/APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Microvision, Inc.
Green Lasers Ramping Up

SUMMARY
Last Friday brought a bit of good news about the availability of green lasers, the key gating factor for the production ramp of Microvision's pico projector. The news was delivered during an Investor Day event held by Corning (GLW, $18.05, O), currently the world's only supplier of green lasers. Corning had missed a number of ramp-up targets over the course of 2009, but now appears on track and is currently producing 1K green lasers per week and still growing. As such, green laser availability should not pose a roadblock for our current MVIS volume estimates, which target 8K unit in 1Q10 and 83K units for FY10.

KEY POINTS
• Corning also noted that it is currently working on a second generation green laser, which will double its output to 20 lumens from 10 lumens. Corning does not see the quantum dot laser technology as a competitive threat, as its efficiency and brightness remain low.

• Bottom line: while we believe the value proposition of the ShowWX and the PicoP embedded module still need to prove themselves in the market, it appears component availability is set to become less of a gating factor near term.

EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE

Oppenheimer

*****

From what I hear, we are still on track to launch SHOWwx for the US market in March of 2010.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: US Launch of SHOWwx in Late March or Early April

2010-02-24T17:11:00.002-05:00

That’s the rumor up and down the supply chain.

Currently, so it seems, the emphasis is on shipping everything to full fill back orders from the existing customers… such as Mint Wireless, Uniden and Vodafone.

SHOWwx shipments in 2009 were very small and the quantities shipped blatantly fly foul in the face of publicly stated [or projected] quantities that we were made to believe. I don’t know how AT plans on covering his tracks to justify grossly misstated projections for quantities… but then again, he doesn’t have to because projections are just that─ projections.

I wish Microvision management comes clean with whatever it is; or was; or was said or done… just get-on with business at hand and move forward from this day onwards.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/

Microvision: Cleaning House in the Midnight Shuffle

2010-02-24T15:51:00.005-05:00

Last year it was Greg Olsen and this year it is Russell Hannigan… the two high profile managers that have left Microvision in the recent months.

Greg Olsen was Global Marketing Manager at Microviion. He left Micovision in July of 2009 and is now a Principal at “Delightability”… a privately held Management Consulting firm.

Russell Hannigan was, until recently, the Director of Product Management, Consumer Projection Displays at Microvision. He left Microvision in November of 2009 and is now Director of Business Development at Intellectual Ventures… a privately held Venture Capital firm.

Heads are rolling left and right... or is it just the midnight shuffle?

Hard to say for now; so just stay tuned to wait and see what develops in the next few weeks.

However, its about time that overhead was trimmed to reflect the current shape and state of affairs at Microvision.

Here’s some more on the midnight shuffle…

• Ted Phelps is the new “Senior Commodity Manager” since November 2008. He comes from Jabil Circuits.

• Bill Richardson is the new “Program Manager Product Development” since January 2010. He comes from IDD Aerospace.

• Bill Becker is the new “Dirctor of Sales and Marketing Operations” since July 2009. He was promoted from his old job as the Global Business Manager, Barcode Solutions Business Unit at Microvision.

• Michael Herr is the new “Managing Director of Business Development” since early 2007. He is a freshly minted graduate of Damelin College… so it seems.

• Perry Mulligan is new on the Board of Directors since January 2010. He is currently Senior Vice President, Operations for QLogic, where he is responsible for all aspects of the manufacturing and delivery of products to the customer in addition to overall supply chain design and manufacturing strategy. Prior to QLogic, he was at Solectron where he held the position of Senior Vice President Supply Chain Management and Chief Procurement Officer and was responsible for establishing the overall materials and supply chain strategy.

Well, there are a few more up and down the line with some fancy job titles.

Anant Goel
http://www.wealthbyoptions.com/